Skip to main content
Educational analyticsNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Today · Oct 30 · 10 eventsLatest results· Oct 29
Settled · graded against final box scores
22–16 on 38 decisive picks · 57.9%2026-10-11
View audit →
Slate · pick a date
Mon, Oct 26SettledTue, Oct 27SettledWed, Oct 28SettledTodayUpcomingTomorrowUpcomingSun, Nov 1UpcomingMon, Nov 2UpcomingTue, Nov 3UpcomingWed, Nov 4UpcomingThu, Nov 5Upcoming
MLB model board · 2026-10-11

1 MLB games · 38 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 11, 5:27 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
32
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
1
model vs market · context
Small gap
3
2 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Strikeouts0 gap ≥ 5 pp·2 totalHits15 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 totalHits + Runs + RBIs17 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Joey Ortiz
Joey OrtizMIL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+17.8%
proj 1.97-167 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy PagesLAD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+19.9%
proj 2.33-143 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle TuckerLAD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+18.5%
proj 2.08-148 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar HernandezLAD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+14.3%
proj 1.99-161 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+15.3%
proj 1.17-154 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie BettsLAD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.6%
proj 1.25-215 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake BauersMIL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+13.1%
proj 1.96-163 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian YelichMIL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+10.5%
proj 1.79-180 · draftkings
Filters · 38 of 38 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
American Family Field38 leansFinal · graded

LAD@MIL

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Tarik Skubal
probable · awayTarik Skubal
LAD
Jacob Misiorowski
probable · homeJacob Misiorowski
MIL
Strikeouts
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski
MILvsLADPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER7.5
Projection6.71
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 8.4 K across 30 starts
-136 · draftkings
Tarik Skubal
Tarik Skubal
LADvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER7.5
Projection7.25
Edge−1.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.2 K across 26 starts
+110 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.33
Edge+19.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 133 games
-143 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.09
Edge+19.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 73 games
+132 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+19.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
+106 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.08
Edge+18.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 153 games
-148 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.57
Edge+18.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 123 games
+103 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.97
Edge+17.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 119 games
-167 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+17.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 153 games
-117 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+17.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 125 games
-133 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+17.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
+130 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.85
Edge+15.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 148 games
-133 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+15.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-154 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+15.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 119 games
-134 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.99
Edge+14.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 125 games
-161 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+13.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 148 games
-106 · draftkings
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.51
Edge+13.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.22 across 36 games
-137 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+13.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
-158 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.96
Edge+13.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
-163 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+13%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-130 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+12.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-164 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.5
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
-138 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.79
Edge+10.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
-180 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+10.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 135 games
-124 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.72
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 153 games
-183 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.33 across 135 games
-155 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+9.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-126 · draftkings
Luis Lara
Luis Lara
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.51
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 57 games
-162 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+9.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 153 games
-143 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 123 games
-215 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+6.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-159 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+6.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-111 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-207 · draftkings
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 36 games
-112 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangModel anomaly
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+27.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+142 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy PagesModel anomaly
LADvsMILBatterHits
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+20.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 133 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-112 · draftkings
Luis Lara
Luis Lara
MILvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 57 games
-135 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-144 · draftkings
Open MLB model audit · partial →
Home runs live on the Power Board

Open the MLB Power Board →

HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.

← back to MLB overview