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MLB model board · 2026-10-10
1 MLB games · 38 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 10, 5:27 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
21
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
4
model vs market · context
Small gap
6
7 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomaliesBraden MontgomeryCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+13.9%
proj 1.8-172 · draftkings
Sam AntonacciCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+7.4%
proj 1.13-210 · draftkings
Jose RamirezCLE vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+7.3%
proj 1.05-199 · draftkings
Steven KwanCLE vs CWS
Gap 2.5–5 ppHitsOver 0.5+3%
proj 1.11-239 · draftkings
Brayan RocchioCLE vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+14.4%
proj 1.04-142 · draftkings
Braden MontgomeryCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+14.6%
proj 1-136 · draftkings
Angel MartinezCLE vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+11.5%
proj 1.06-153 · draftkings
Patrick BaileyCLE vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+6.3%
proj 1.33-172 · draftkings
Filters · 38 of 38 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Progressive Field38 leansFinal · graded
CWS@CLE
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
first pitch8:00 PM ET
Progressive Field38 leansFinal · graded
CWS@CLE
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Strikeouts
Sean BurkeModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
OVER3.5
Projection5.53
Edge+20.4%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.8 K across 32 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-147 · draftkings
Gavin Williams
CLEvsCWSPitcherStrikeouts
OVER6.5
Projection7.15
Edge+1.5%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 7.8 K across 32 starts
-136 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.39
Edge+18.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 159 games
+112 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+17.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 153 games
+105 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+16.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 39 games
+134 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.14
Edge+15.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 139 games
+107 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+14.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 92 games
-136 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+14.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-142 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+13.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 92 games
-172 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+12.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 124 games
-104 · draftkings
Andrew Benintendi
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+12.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 141 games
+121 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+12.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 127 games
-121 · draftkings
Angel Martinez
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.06
Edge+11.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 107 games
-153 · draftkings
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+8.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
+102 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+7.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 153 games
+132 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.13
Edge+7.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 139 games
-210 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+7.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 124 games
-199 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+6.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-172 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+6.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
-112 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+6.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
-107 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+6.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 159 games
-166 · draftkings
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+5.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-174 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
-180 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+4.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
-171 · draftkings
Tristan Peters
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+3.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 149 games
+113 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-239 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+2.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-140 · draftkings
Andrew BenintendiModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.69
Edge+22.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 141 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-103 · draftkings
Munetaka MurakamiModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.45
Edge+22.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 127 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+127 · draftkings
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection2.6
Edge+21.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 154 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-187 · draftkings
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+20.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 154 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-147 · draftkings
Angel MartinezModel anomaly
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+20.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 107 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+132 · draftkings
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+20.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-175 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+2.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-136 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−1.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-132 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge−1.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-235 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge−1.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 39 games
-147 · draftkings
Tristan Peters
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.19
Edge+0.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 149 games
+133 · draftkings
Home runs live on the Power Board
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.