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MLB model board · 2026-10-04

2 MLB games · 75 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 4, 7:11 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
47
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
5
model vs market · context
Small gap
11
6 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
6
no projection emitted
Strikeouts2 gap ≥ 5 pp·3 totalHits22 gap ≥ 5 pp·36 totalHits + Runs + RBIs23 gap ≥ 5 pp·36 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Xander Bogaerts
Xander BogaertsSD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+19.9%
proj 1.95-159 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinATL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+17.8%
proj 1.32-171 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs SD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+11.6%
proj 1.17-181 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie BettsLAD vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+11.6%
proj 1.25-180 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris IIATL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+14.6%
proj 1.21-154 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+6.1%
proj 1.17-218 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will SmithLAD vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+11.9%
proj 1.07-168 · draftkings
Tommy Edman
Tommy EdmanLAD vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+13.7%
proj 1.9-153 · draftkings
Filters · 75 of 75 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
American Family Field38 leansFinal · graded

SD@MIL

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

first pitch
4:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Michael King
probable · awayMichael King
SD
Logan Henderson
probable · homeLogan Henderson
MIL
Strikeouts
Logan Henderson
Logan Henderson
MILvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER6.5
Projection5.87
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 18 starts
-130 · draftkings
Michael King
Michael King
SDvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER5.5
Projection4.99
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 32 starts
-151 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.95
Edge+19.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 153 games
-159 · draftkings
Ethan Salas
Ethan Salas
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+19.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.31 across 16 games
-117 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.22
Edge+17.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 128 games
+120 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+15.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 108 games
-116 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+15.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 159 games
-103 · draftkings
Dustin Harris
Dustin Harris
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+15.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 43 games
-141 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+15.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-113 · draftkings
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.48
Edge+14.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 71 games
-128 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.2
Edge+14.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 157 games
+109 · draftkings
Ethan Salas
Ethan Salas
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+14.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 16 games
+100 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+12.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 153 games
-132 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.96
Edge+11.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
+114 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-181 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.79
Edge+11.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
+125 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+10.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 128 games
-168 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+10.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
+128 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+10.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
+100 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+10.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 158 games
+120 · draftkings
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 71 games
-106 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+8.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-157 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 157 games
-174 · draftkings
David Hamilton
David Hamilton
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.38 across 114 games
-154 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 159 games
-218 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-146 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-231 · draftkings
David Hamilton
David Hamilton
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 114 games
-127 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-187 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake CronenworthModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+26.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 108 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-137 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangModel anomaly
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+20.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+108 · draftkings
Dustin Harris
Dustin HarrisModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.29
Edge+20.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 43 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-169 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge−3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 109 games
-181 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
+131 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.5
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
+108 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge−1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 158 games
-158 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-159 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 109 games
+113 · draftkings
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium37 leansFinal · graded

ATL@LAD

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
probable · awayTBD
ATL
Blake Snell
probable · homeBlake Snell
LAD
Strikeouts
Blake Snell
Blake Snell
LADvsATLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER6.5
Projection4.95
Edge+19%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 9 starts
-107 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+19.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 162 games
+130 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.57
Edge+18.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 123 games
+105 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.08
Edge+17.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 153 games
+130 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+17.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 138 games
-171 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.09
Edge+16.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 73 games
+117 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.85
Edge+15.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 148 games
-133 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.21
Edge+14.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 155 games
-154 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+13.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 148 games
-106 · draftkings
Tommy Edman
Tommy Edman
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.9
Edge+13.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 83 games
-153 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 133 games
-147 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.52
Edge+13.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 159 games
-138 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+12.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 162 games
-141 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+12.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 153 games
-142 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-168 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 123 games
-180 · draftkings
Ha-Seong Kim
Ha-Seong Kim
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+9.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 45 games
+100 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+8.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 153 games
+117 · draftkings
Lane Thomas
Lane Thomas
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.32 across 113 games
-112 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge+5.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 159 games
-113 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+5.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 153 games
-168 · draftkings
Tommy Edman
Tommy Edman
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 83 games
-126 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.33 across 135 games
+102 · draftkings
Lane Thomas
Lane Thomas
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.47
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 113 games
+119 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinModel anomaly
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.46
Edge+22.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 138 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+120 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy PagesModel anomaly
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+21.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 133 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+134 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris IIModel anomaly
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+21.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.19 across 155 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+133 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.34
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 162 games
+124 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 135 games
-176 · draftkings
Ha-Seong Kim
Ha-Seong Kim
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.27
Edge−1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.33 across 45 games
-165 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 162 games
+127 · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
ATL @ LADBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
ATL @ LADBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
ATL @ LADBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
ATL @ LADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
ATL @ LADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
ATL @ LADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
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