11 MLB games · 379 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
Great American Ball Park37 leansFinal · graded
STL@CIN

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
first pitch1:40 PM ET
STL@CIN
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Game details · probable pitchers
- Sampletoo small to project (1 games of log data)
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.40 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.44 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.40 across 95 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 98 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 104 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.28 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.45 across 58 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 95 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 43 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 95 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 43 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 58 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.74 across 95 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.22 across 104 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 58 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 98 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.21 across 58 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Great American Ball Park2 leansFinal · graded
STL@CIN

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
first pitch6:40 PM ET
STL@CIN
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.0 K across 23 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.7 K across 21 starts
Tropicana Field38 leansFinal · graded
BAL@TB

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch6:05 PM ET
BAL@TB
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.5 K across 20 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.7 K across 20 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.62 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.19 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.47 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.49 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 111 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.22
- SeasonSeason average 0.22 across 9 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 23 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.47 across 95 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.33
- SeasonSeason average 0.33 across 9 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.29 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.84 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.31 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 95 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.25 across 124 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.52 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 23 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 111 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Citizens Bank Park38 leansFinal · graded
MIA@PHI

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
first pitch6:40 PM ET
MIA@PHI
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.8 K across 17 starts
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.48 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.84 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 65 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.63 across 99 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 41 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 91 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.28 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 99 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.40 across 111 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 91 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.13 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.21 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 41 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 65 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 111 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 120 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
PNC Park36 leansFinal · graded
DET@PIT

Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates
first pitch7:05 PM ET
DET@PIT
Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 24 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 2.9 K across 27 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.31 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 96 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.73 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.16 across 126 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 15 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 67 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 9 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.16 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.67
- SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 9 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 97 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 67 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 114 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.25 across 97 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.37 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 96 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 126 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 15 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.27 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.16 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 114 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Fenway Park37 leansFinal · graded
AZ@BOS

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox
first pitch7:10 PM ET
AZ@BOS
Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.6 K across 7 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 96 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 96 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 57 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.95 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 57 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.55 across 62 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 81 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.21 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.73 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 69 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.11 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 34 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.35 across 69 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 62 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 81 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.46 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 34 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Citi Field38 leansFinal · graded
SD@NYM

San Diego Padres at New York Mets
first pitch7:10 PM ET
SD@NYM
San Diego Padres at New York Mets
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.2 K across 24 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.6 K across 24 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 45 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 73 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 67 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 45 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 83 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 83 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.11 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 36 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 67 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.49 across 85 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 85 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 94 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 94 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.52 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.47 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 84 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 36 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 73 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.69 across 84 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 122 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 122 games
Kauffman Stadium38 leansFinal · graded
ATH@KC

Athletics at Kansas City Royals
first pitch7:40 PM ET
ATH@KC
Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 2.1 K across 17 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 24 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 79 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 22 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 22 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.16 across 69 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 87 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 79 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.42 across 110 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.73 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 80 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.49 across 87 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.36 across 111 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 110 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 65 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 89 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.47 across 108 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 111 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 26 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 76 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.63 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 76 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 65 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 101 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 48 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 26 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.37 across 89 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 69 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.69 across 101 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 108 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 48 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 80 games
Target Field38 leansFinal · graded
ATL@MIN

Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins
first pitch7:40 PM ET
ATL@MIN
Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.7 K across 18 starts
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.95 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.43
- SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 7 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.35 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.86
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 7 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.23 across 62 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.69 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 85 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 85 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.70 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 98 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 98 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.30 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.17 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 101 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 62 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.06 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.34 across 101 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Wrigley Field38 leansFinal · graded
CWS@CHC

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
first pitch8:05 PM ET
CWS@CHC
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.6 K across 22 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.4 K across 24 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.06 across 122 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.17 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.36 across 107 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.22 across 88 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.32 across 81 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.83 across 87 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 41 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 87 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.92 across 122 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 107 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 122 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 88 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 81 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.34 across 125 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 56 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 118 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.46 across 41 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 122 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 125 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.52 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 120 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Coors Field39 leansFinal · graded
LAD@COL

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
first pitch8:40 PM ET
LAD@COL
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.1 K across 21 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.1 K across 21 starts
- Sampletoo small to project (2 games of log data)
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.43 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 48 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 114 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 67 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 48 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.95 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 114 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 69 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.40 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 88 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 88 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.52 across 56 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 67 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 36 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 36 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.05 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.95 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 69 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.
