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142–150 on 292 decisive picks · 48.6%2026-07-04
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MLB model board · 2026-07-04

15 MLB games · 245 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDJul 4, 12:58 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
66
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
40
model vs market · context
Small gap
113
4 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
22
no projection emitted
Strikeouts10 gap ≥ 5 pp·29 totalHits56 gap ≥ 5 pp·216 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinATL vs NYM
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+13.3%
proj 0.64-246 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior CamineroTB vs HOU
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+12.3%
proj 1.3-237 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
Alec BohmPHI vs KC
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+11.4%
proj 0.71-245 · draftkings
Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT vs WSH
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+13.7%
proj 1.43-215 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben RiceNYY vs MIN
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+9.7%
proj 0.75-229 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian YelichMIL vs AZ
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsUnder 1.5+10%
proj 0.68-224 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler SimpsonTB vs HOU
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.6%
proj 1.23-248 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan ArandaTB vs HOU
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+13.9%
proj 1.22-181 · draftkings
Filters · 245 of 245 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Nationals Park20 leansFinal · graded

PIT@WSH

Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals

first pitch
11:05 AM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Braxton Ashcraft
probable · awayBraxton Ashcraft
PIT
Zack Littell
probable · homeZack Littell
WSH
Strikeouts
Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton AshcraftModel anomaly
PITvsWSHPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER5.5
Projection7.63
Edge+24.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.8 K across 17 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-147 · draftkings
Zack Littell
Zack Littell
WSHvsPITPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER3.5
Projection3.13
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 2.9 K across 17 starts
-149 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez
PITvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.43
Edge+13.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 20 games
-215 · draftkings
Daylen Lile
Daylen Lile
WSHvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+6.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 87 games
-194 · draftkings
Keibert Ruiz
Keibert Ruiz
WSHvsPITBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 56 games
-167 · draftkings
Nick Gonzales
Nick Gonzales
PITvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.22
Edge+5.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 83 games
+198 · draftkings
Jake Mangum
Jake Mangum
PITvsWSHBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.21
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 62 games
+201 · draftkings
Dylan Crews
Dylan Crews
WSHvsPITBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 38 games
-207 · draftkings
Tyler Callihan
Tyler Callihan
PITvsWSHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 22 games
+121 · draftkings
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
PITvsWSHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.18
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 74 games
+197 · draftkings
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
PITvsWSHBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.98
Edge+3.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 82 games
-228 · draftkings
Jacob Young
Jacob Young
WSHvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.63
Edge−3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 76 games
-147 · draftkings
Curtis Mead
Curtis Mead
WSHvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge−2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 72 games
-197 · draftkings
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
WSHvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 85 games
-178 · draftkings
James Wood
James Wood
WSHvsPITBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 89 games
-215 · draftkings
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds
PITvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.01
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 89 games
-230 · draftkings
Konnor Griffin
Konnor Griffin
PITvsWSHBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.23
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 56 games
+156 · draftkings
Luis Garcia Jr.
PIT @ WSHBatterHits
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Endy Rodriguez
PIT @ WSHBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Nasim Nunez
PIT @ WSHBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Yankee Stadium19 leansFinal · graded

MIN@NYY

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees

first pitch
1:35 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Zebby Matthews
probable · awayZebby Matthews
MIN
Brendan Beck
probable · homeBrendan Beck
NYY
Strikeouts
Zebby Matthews
Zebby Matthews
MINvsNYYPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER5.5
Projection5.23
Edge−1.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 9 starts
+123 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Alex Jackson
Alex Jackson
MINvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+13.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 15 games
-110 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsMINBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+11.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 85 games
+176 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsMINBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.75
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 82 games
-229 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
NYYvsMINBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.16
Edge+4.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 66 games
-256 · draftkings
Trevor Larnach
Trevor Larnach
MINvsNYYBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 73 games
-201 · draftkings
Tristan Gray
Tristan Gray
MINvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.58
Edge−3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 55 games
+103 · draftkings
Kody Clemens
Kody Clemens
MINvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.85
Edge−2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 74 games
+171 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 83 games
+157 · draftkings
Luke Keaschall
Luke Keaschall
MINvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 83 games
+131 · draftkings
Jasson Domínguez
Jasson Domínguez
NYYvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 26 games
+172 · draftkings
Josh Bell
Josh Bell
MINvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 86 games
+167 · draftkings
Ryan Kreidler
Ryan Kreidler
MINvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.8
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 42 games
-167 · draftkings
Brooks Lee
Brooks Lee
MINvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 83 games
-267 · draftkings
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon
NYYvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 65 games
+118 · draftkings
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt
NYYvsMINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 61 games
+187 · draftkings
Royce Lewis
Royce Lewis
MINvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 55 games
-209 · draftkings
Jose Caballero
MIN @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ali Sanchez
MIN @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Globe Life Field20 leansFinal · graded

DET@TEX

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

first pitch
4:05 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Jack Flaherty
probable · awayJack Flaherty
DET
Kumar Rocker
probable · homeKumar Rocker
TEX
Strikeouts
Kumar Rocker
Kumar Rocker
TEXvsDETPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection5.27
Edge+6.3%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 16 starts
-150 · draftkings
Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty
DETvsTEXPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER5.5
Projection5.56
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.4 K across 16 starts
-111 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Nicky Lopez
Nicky Lopez
TEXvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+16.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 34 games
-139 · draftkings
Hao-Yu Lee
Hao-Yu Lee
DETvsTEXBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+13.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 48 games
-123 · draftkings
Alejandro Osuna
Alejandro Osuna
TEXvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+10.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 54 games
-139 · draftkings
Ezequiel Duran
Ezequiel Duran
TEXvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 77 games
-172 · draftkings
Brandon Nimmo
Brandon Nimmo
TEXvsDETBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+6.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 82 games
-210 · draftkings
Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle
DETvsTEXBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 85 games
-229 · draftkings
Zach McKinstry
Zach McKinstry
DETvsTEXBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 61 games
-157 · draftkings
Josh Jung
Josh Jung
TEXvsDETBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.16 across 82 games
-205 · draftkings
Riley Greene
Riley Greene
DETvsTEXBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 87 games
-207 · draftkings
Colt Keith
Colt Keith
DETvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge−3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 79 games
+120 · draftkings
Jake Burger
Jake Burger
TEXvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.8
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 85 games
-186 · draftkings
Kerry Carpenter
Kerry Carpenter
DETvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.73
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 65 games
+141 · draftkings
Dillon Dingler
Dillon Dingler
DETvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 81 games
-227 · draftkings
Joc Pederson
Joc Pederson
TEXvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 80 games
-170 · draftkings
Spencer Torkelson
Spencer Torkelson
DETvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.76
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 87 games
-154 · draftkings
Evan Carter
Evan Carter
TEXvsDETBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 70 games
-131 · draftkings
James Outman
James Outman
DETvsTEXBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.4
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.40 across 43 games
-125 · draftkings
Elias Diaz
DET @ TEXBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
T-Mobile Park20 leansFinal · graded

TOR@SEA

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners

first pitch
4:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Shane Bieber
probable · awayShane Bieber
TOR
Logan Gilbert
probable · homeLogan Gilbert
SEA
Strikeouts
Logan Gilbert
Logan GilbertModel anomaly
SEAvsTORPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER5.5
Projection7.42
Edge+35.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.3 K across 17 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-102 · draftkings
Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber
TORvsSEAPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line5.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (2 games of log data)
— · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
TORvsSEABatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 84 games
-162 · draftkings
Cole Young
Cole Young
SEAvsTORBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 89 games
-159 · draftkings
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
TORvsSEABatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 70 games
-159 · draftkings
Dominic Canzone
Dominic Canzone
SEAvsTORBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.6
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 77 games
+152 · draftkings
Brandon Valenzuela
Brandon Valenzuela
TORvsSEABatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 50 games
-115 · draftkings
Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh
SEAvsTORBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.55
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 57 games
+126 · draftkings
Ernie Clement
Ernie Clement
TORvsSEABatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 85 games
-241 · draftkings
Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena
SEAvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 81 games
+200 · draftkings
Nathan Lukes
Nathan Lukes
TORvsSEABatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 53 games
-182 · draftkings
Josh Naylor
Josh Naylor
SEAvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 82 games
-254 · draftkings
Luke Raley
Luke Raley
SEAvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 73 games
+102 · draftkings
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TORvsSEABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 83 games
+195 · draftkings
Colt Emerson
Colt Emerson
SEAvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.63
Edge+0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 39 games
-123 · draftkings
J.P. Crawford
J.P. Crawford
SEAvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge−0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 71 games
-195 · draftkings
Myles Straw
Myles Straw
TORvsSEABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.45
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.49 across 65 games
-109 · draftkings
Victor Robles
Victor Robles
SEAvsTORBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.6
Edge−0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 26 games
+120 · draftkings
Yohendrick Pinango
TOR @ SEABatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Andres Gimenez
TOR @ SEABatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Great American Ball Park20 leansFinal · graded

BAL@CIN

Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds

first pitch
7:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Brandon Young
probable · awayBrandon Young
BAL
Hunter Greene
probable · homeHunter Greene
CIN
Strikeouts
Brandon Young
Brandon Young
BALvsCINPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER4.5
Projection4.72
Edge−1.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 13 starts
+115 · draftkings
Hunter Greene
Hunter Greene
CINvsBALPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line6.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
CINvsBALBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 87 games
-221 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CINvsBALBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 65 games
+160 · draftkings
Tyler Stephenson
Tyler Stephenson
CINvsBALBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 65 games
-167 · draftkings
Jackson Holliday
Jackson Holliday
BALvsCINBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.47
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 37 games
+108 · draftkings
TJ Friedl
TJ Friedl
CINvsBALBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 51 games
+111 · draftkings
Samuel Basallo
Samuel Basallo
BALvsCINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 75 games
+159 · draftkings
JJ Bleday
JJ Bleday
CINvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 59 games
+152 · draftkings
Noelvi Marte
Noelvi Marte
CINvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.62
Edge+2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 34 games
+137 · draftkings
Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson
BALvsCINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection0.97
Edge−2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 88 games
-263 · draftkings
Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso
BALvsCINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge−1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 89 games
-216 · draftkings
Edwin Arroyo
Edwin Arroyo
CINvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 24 games
-167 · draftkings
Blaze Alexander
Blaze Alexander
BALvsCINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 65 games
-205 · draftkings
Colton Cowser
Colton Cowser
BALvsCINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.58
Edge−1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.57 across 74 games
-123 · draftkings
Dylan Beavers
Dylan Beavers
BALvsCINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 37 games
-151 · draftkings
Taylor Ward
Taylor Ward
BALvsCINBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 88 games
-190 · draftkings
Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz
CINvsBALBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection0.99
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 68 games
-258 · draftkings
Adley Rutschman
Adley Rutschman
BALvsCINBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 58 games
+154 · draftkings
Eugenio Suarez
BAL @ CINBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Daikin Park20 leansFinal · graded

TB@HOU

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros

first pitch
7:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Drew Rasmussen
probable · awayDrew Rasmussen
TB
Hunter Brown
probable · homeHunter Brown
HOU
Strikeouts
Hunter Brown
Hunter Brown
HOUvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection5.63
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.4 K across 5 starts
+124 · draftkings
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
TBvsHOUPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER5.5
Projection5.76
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.9 K across 16 starts
+122 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.22
Edge+13.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 84 games
-181 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.3
Edge+12.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 85 games
-237 · draftkings
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes
HOUvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+10.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 83 games
-161 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 64 games
-121 · draftkings
Cedric Mullins
Cedric Mullins
TBvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+7.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 73 games
-158 · draftkings
Hunter Feduccia
Hunter Feduccia
TBvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.58
Edge+7.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 45 games
+117 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsHOUBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.23
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 78 games
-248 · draftkings
Yainer Diaz
Yainer Diaz
HOUvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+4.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 37 games
-163 · draftkings
Cam Smith
Cam Smith
HOUvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 86 games
-158 · draftkings
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
HOUvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 88 games
-227 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsHOUBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 24 games
+111 · draftkings
Nick Allen
Nick Allen
HOUvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.54
Edge+1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 31 games
-101 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsHOUBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge+1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 59 games
-122 · draftkings
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
HOUvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 88 games
-168 · draftkings
Joey Loperfido
Joey Loperfido
HOUvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.43
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 39 games
-119 · draftkings
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
HOUvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge−0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 66 games
-179 · draftkings
Taylor Trammell
Taylor Trammell
HOUvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.59
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 38 games
-116 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TB @ HOUBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Progressive Field20 leansFinal · graded

CWS@CLE

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

first pitch
7:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Sean Burke
probable · awaySean Burke
CWS
Parker Messick
probable · homeParker Messick
CLE
Strikeouts
Sean Burke
Sean Burke
CWSvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection6.55
Edge+14.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.6 K across 17 starts
-130 · draftkings
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
CLEvsCWSPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER6.5
Projection7.21
Edge+14.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.2 K across 17 starts
+101 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Cooper Ingle
Cooper Ingle
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.2
Edge+17.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.20 across 5 games
+116 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.16
Edge+16%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 67 games
-154 · draftkings
Kahlil Watson
Kahlil Watson
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 15 games
-166 · draftkings
Drew Romo
Drew Romo
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.26
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.42 across 31 games
-101 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.1
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 86 games
-221 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.2
Edge+6.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 72 games
-228 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 22 games
-156 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase Meidroth
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 85 games
-218 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 80 games
-180 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 55 games
-114 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.8
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 83 games
-190 · draftkings
Gabriel Arias
Gabriel Arias
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.64
Edge−1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 22 games
-139 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge−1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 86 games
-209 · draftkings
Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.6
Edge+1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 52 games
+128 · draftkings
Kyle Manzardo
Kyle Manzardo
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.6
Edge−1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 79 games
+114 · draftkings
Junior Perez
Junior Perez
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 8 games
+105 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 57 games
+164 · draftkings
Luisangel Acuna
CWS @ CLEBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Wrigley Field20 leansFinal · graded

STL@CHC

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

first pitch
8:08 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Kyle Leahy
probable · awayKyle Leahy
STL
Shota Imanaga
probable · homeShota Imanaga
CHC
Strikeouts
Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy
STLvsCHCPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection4.63
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.2 K across 16 starts
+133 · draftkings
Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga
CHCvsSTLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection4.45
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.4 K across 17 starts
+120 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Lars Nootbaar
Lars Nootbaar
STLvsCHCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.12
Edge+13.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 23 games
-169 · draftkings
Dansby Swanson
Dansby Swanson
CHCvsSTLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+13.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 83 games
-141 · draftkings
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya Suzuki
CHCvsSTLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+7.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 72 games
-202 · draftkings
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
STLvsCHCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 83 games
-202 · draftkings
Nico Hoerner
Nico Hoerner
CHCvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 86 games
-241 · draftkings
JJ Wetherholt
JJ Wetherholt
STLvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 80 games
-205 · draftkings
Alec Burleson
Alec Burleson
STLvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 84 games
+174 · draftkings
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHCvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.08 across 88 games
-247 · draftkings
Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto
CHCvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 57 games
-128 · draftkings
Blaze Jordan
Blaze Jordan
STLvsCHCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 18 games
-138 · draftkings
Alex Bregman
Alex Bregman
CHCvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.83
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 86 games
+179 · draftkings
Michael Busch
Michael Busch
CHCvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 87 games
+172 · draftkings
Miguel Amaya
Miguel Amaya
CHCvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 45 games
-131 · draftkings
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
CHCvsSTLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 83 games
-152 · draftkings
Ivan Herrera
STL @ CHCBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jose Fermin
STL @ CHCBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Nelson Velazquez
STL @ CHCBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Pedro Pages
STL @ CHCBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Truist Park20 leansFinal · graded

NYM@ATL

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

first pitch
8:08 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Sean Manaea
probable · awaySean Manaea
NYM
Chris Sale
probable · homeChris Sale
ATL
Strikeouts
Sean Manaea
Sean Manaea
NYMvsATLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection3.98
Edge+9.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.6 K across 18 starts
-115 · draftkings
Chris Sale
Chris Sale
ATLvsNYMPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER7.5
Projection7.49
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.3 K across 15 starts
+106 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsNYMBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.64
Edge+13.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 63 games
-246 · draftkings
A.J. Ewing
A.J. Ewing
NYMvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.89
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 48 games
-136 · draftkings
Carson Benge
Carson Benge
NYMvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 84 games
-174 · draftkings
Joey Bart
Joey Bart
ATLvsNYMBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.79
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 25 games
-118 · draftkings
Eli White
Eli White
ATLvsNYMBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.46
Edge+6.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 45 games
+121 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsNYMBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 86 games
-240 · draftkings
Eric Wagaman
Eric Wagaman
NYMvsATLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.37
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.33 across 15 games
-109 · draftkings
Mark Vientos
Mark Vientos
NYMvsATLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.54
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 70 games
+125 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsNYMBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.87
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 86 games
-258 · draftkings
Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette
NYMvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.01
Edge−3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 88 games
+200 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsNYMBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 80 games
+198 · draftkings
Brett Baty
Brett Baty
NYMvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.53
Edge−0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 82 games
-108 · draftkings
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
NYMvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 69 games
-229 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsNYMBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 86 games
+135 · draftkings
Francisco Alvarez
Francisco Alvarez
NYMvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 57 games
-181 · draftkings
Francisco Lindor
Francisco Lindor
NYMvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge−0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 31 games
-184 · draftkings
Jorge Mateo
Jorge Mateo
ATLvsNYMBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.42
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 45 games
-115 · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
NYM @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Coors Field2 leansFinal · graded

SF@COL

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

first pitch
8:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Robbie Ray
probable · awayRobbie Ray
SF
Tomoyuki Sugano
probable · homeTomoyuki Sugano
COL
Strikeouts
Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray
SFvsCOLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection5.1
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.8 K across 17 starts
-115 · fanduel
Tomoyuki Sugano
Tomoyuki Sugano
COLvsSFPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER2.5
Projection3
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.0 K across 16 starts
-146 · fanduel
Kauffman Stadium20 leansFinal · graded

PHI@KC

Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals

first pitch
8:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Jesús Luzardo
probable · awayJesús Luzardo
PHI
Michael Wacha
probable · homeMichael Wacha
KC
Strikeouts
Michael Wacha
Michael Wacha
KCvsPHIPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection4.97
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 17 starts
-118 · draftkings
Jesus Luzardo
PHI @ KCPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line6.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Kameron Misner
Kameron Misner
KCvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+14.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 11 games
+100 · draftkings
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm
PHIvsKCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.71
Edge+11.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 83 games
-245 · draftkings
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
KCvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 80 games
-183 · draftkings
Brandon Marsh
Brandon Marsh
PHIvsKCBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.33
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 83 games
+177 · draftkings
Michael Massey
Michael Massey
KCvsPHIBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+5.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 66 games
-149 · draftkings
Justin Crawford
Justin Crawford
PHIvsKCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+4.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 80 games
-185 · draftkings
Isaac Collins
Isaac Collins
KCvsPHIBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge+4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 75 games
-154 · draftkings
J.T. Realmuto
J.T. Realmuto
PHIvsKCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 60 games
+165 · draftkings
Lane Thomas
Lane Thomas
KCvsPHIBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.55
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 70 games
+126 · draftkings
Bryson Stott
Bryson Stott
PHIvsKCBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 82 games
-237 · draftkings
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
PHIvsKCBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.55
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 14 games
+116 · draftkings
Starling Marte
Starling Marte
KCvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge−1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 37 games
-169 · draftkings
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
PHIvsKCBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.82
Edge−1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 84 games
+160 · draftkings
Nick Loftin
Nick Loftin
KCvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.62
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 51 games
+129 · draftkings
Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.
KCvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.12
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 82 games
-209 · draftkings
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
PHIvsKCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.09
Edge−0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 87 games
-260 · draftkings
Trea Turner
Trea Turner
PHIvsKCBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.29
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 86 games
+142 · draftkings
Jac Caglianone
Jac Caglianone
KCvsPHIBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge−0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 81 games
-205 · draftkings
Angel Stadium20 leansFinal · graded

BOS@LAA

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels

first pitch
9:38 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Sonny Gray
probable · awaySonny Gray
BOS
Sam Aldegheri
probable · homeSam Aldegheri
LAA
Strikeouts
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray
BOSvsLAAPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER6.5
Projection6.65
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 15 starts
-104 · draftkings
Samuel Aldegheri
BOS @ LAAPitcherStrikeouts
Sample too small
Line3.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Anthony Seigler
Anthony Seigler
BOSvsLAABatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.1
Edge+16.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 14 games
-145 · draftkings
Nate Eaton
Nate Eaton
BOSvsLAABatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.38
Edge+14.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.36 across 11 games
+144 · draftkings
Josh Lowe
Josh Lowe
LAAvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 49 games
-131 · draftkings
Wade Meckler
Wade Meckler
LAAvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+8.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 34 games
-144 · draftkings
Denzer Guzman
Denzer Guzman
LAAvsBOSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+8.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 20 games
-177 · draftkings
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOSvsLAABatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.19
Edge+7.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 80 games
-233 · draftkings
Oswald Peraza
Oswald Peraza
LAAvsBOSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 75 games
-119 · draftkings
Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras
BOSvsLAABatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.06
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 83 games
-234 · draftkings
Andruw Monasterio
Andruw Monasterio
BOSvsLAABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.51
Edge−3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 49 games
-112 · draftkings
Nolan Schanuel
Nolan Schanuel
LAAvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.04
Edge−2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 70 games
-271 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
LAAvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.77
Edge−2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 88 games
-173 · draftkings
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
BOSvsLAABatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 84 games
+173 · draftkings
Tyler Heineman
Tyler Heineman
LAAvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.44 across 34 games
+102 · draftkings
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
LAAvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.9
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 86 games
-202 · draftkings
Jorge Soler
Jorge Soler
LAAvsBOSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 67 games
-167 · draftkings
Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin
BOSvsLAABatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 77 games
-205 · draftkings
Romy Gonzalez
Romy Gonzalez
BOSvsLAABatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (4 games of log data)
— · draftkings
Carlos Narvaez
BOS @ LAABatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Sutter Health Park2 leansFinal · graded

MIA@ATH

Miami Marlins at Athletics

first pitch
9:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Sandy Alcantara
probable · awaySandy Alcantara
MIA
Aaron Civale
probable · homeAaron Civale
ATH
Strikeouts
Aaron Civale
Aaron Civale
ATHvsMIAPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER3.5
Projection3.19
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.4 K across 14 starts
+106 · fanduel
Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara
MIAvsATHPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER4.5
Projection4.48
Edge+7.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.7 K across 18 starts
+132 · fanduel
Chase Field20 leansFinal · graded

MIL@AZ

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks

first pitch
9:40 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Brandon Woodruff
probable · awayBrandon Woodruff
MIL
Merrill Kelly
probable · homeMerrill Kelly
AZ
Strikeouts
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
AZvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER3.5
Projection3.16
Edge+12.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.4 K across 14 starts
+116 · draftkings
Brandon Woodruff
Brandon WoodruffModel anomaly
MILvsAZPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER4.5
Projection5.61
Edge+25.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 8 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+133 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsAZBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.38
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 16 games
+122 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsAZBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.68
Edge+10%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 53 games
-224 · draftkings
Max Kepler
Max Kepler
AZvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.4
Edge+8.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.40 across 5 games
+118 · draftkings
Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado
AZvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+5.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 82 games
-169 · draftkings
Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte
AZvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+5.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.08 across 83 games
-267 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsAZBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 75 games
-190 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsAZBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER1.5
Projection0.94
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 78 games
-253 · draftkings
Gabriel Moreno
Gabriel Moreno
AZvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 60 games
-227 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge−3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 82 games
-254 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.07
Edge−2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 82 games
+174 · draftkings
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
AZvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.85
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 84 games
+166 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.17
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.23 across 52 games
+158 · draftkings
Pavin Smith
Pavin Smith
AZvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.46
Edge−1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.42 across 24 games
-114 · draftkings
Tommy Troy
Tommy Troy
AZvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 31 games
-131 · draftkings
Geraldo Perdomo
Geraldo Perdomo
AZvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 84 games
-205 · draftkings
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
AZvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 38 games
-176 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge−0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 77 games
-230 · draftkings
David Hamilton
David Hamilton
MILvsAZBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 67 games
-140 · draftkings
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium2 leansFinal · graded

SD@LAD

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

first pitch
10:10 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Griffin Canning
probable · awayGriffin Canning
SD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
probable · homeYoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD
Strikeouts
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LADvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER6.5
Projection5.82
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.0 K across 15 starts
-150 · fanduel
Griffin Canning
Griffin CanningModel anomaly
SDvsLADPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
UNDER4.5
Projection3.17
Edge+22.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.2 K across 11 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-125 · fanduel
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