NFL · Anytime touchdown
944 forecasts published · 767 measured · 0 not final · 177 void or not measurable. Models: not recorded by this forecast's record.
0.170Brier score (n 767), lower is better
0.520log loss, lower is better
23.6% → 23.3%average forecast → how often it happened
0.034calibration error (ECE)
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 91 | 8.1% | 9.9% |
| 10–20% | 269 | 14.9% | 17.1% |
| 20–30% | 213 | 24.6% | 25.8% |
| 30–40% | 102 | 34.5% | 30.4% |
| 40–50% | 58 | 44.2% | 31.0% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 54.0% | 47.1% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 63.3% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 74.6% | 100.0% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 944. Download all 944 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Bryce Young · CAR | 7.3% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.005 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET | 58.5% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.342 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Jared Goff · DET | 8.7% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Sam LaPorta · DET | 29.3% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.500 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Jameson Williams · DET | 24.7% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.061 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Chuba Hubbard · CAR | 44.3% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.311 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Justin Jackson · DET | 17.1% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Darren Waller · CAR | 24.4% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.059 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | John Metchie III · CAR | 12.0% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.014 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | AJ Dillon · CAR | 12.8% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.016 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Tommy Tremble · CAR | 14.0% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.020 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Isaac TeSlaa · DET | 15.0% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.023 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Sione Vaki · DET | 11.5% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.013 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Jahmyr Gibbs · DET | 77.1% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.052 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Mitchell Evans · CAR | 8.9% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.008 |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Tetairoa McMillan · CAR | 27.9% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.520 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Jake Tonges · SF | 11.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Velus Jones Jr. · SEA | 8.3% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | J.K. Dobbins · DEN | 30.7% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.094 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Justin Herbert · LAC | 11.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.012 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Jaylen Waddle · DEN | 27.4% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.528 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Mac Jones · SF | 7.6% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA | 67.3% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.453 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Quentin Johnston · LAC | 22.8% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.052 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Rashee Rice · KC | 34.6% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Courtland Sutton · DEN | 23.4% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.055 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Tory Horton · SEA | 11.6% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.781 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Christian McCaffrey · SF | 64.7% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.125 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Jalen Nailor · LV | 19.4% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Rashid Shaheed · SEA | 19.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.653 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Ladd McConkey · LAC | 22.7% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.052 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Kenneth Walker III · KC | 62.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.143 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Jarrett Stidham · DEN | 7.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Troy Franklin · DEN | 10.6% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | RJ Harvey · DEN | 35.0% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.122 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Brock Bowers · LV | 50.5% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.245 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | AJ Barner · SEA | 19.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.037 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Kyle Juszczyk · SF | 13.5% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.018 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Tyler Badie · DEN | 10.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.010 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Ashton Jeanty · LV | 48.1% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.231 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Omarion Hampton · LAC | 41.3% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.345 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Michael Mayer · LV | 25.4% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.064 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Nate Adkins · DEN | 10.7% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | George Kittle · SF | 45.4% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.298 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. · SF | 26.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.544 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Tre' Harris · LAC | 17.8% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.032 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Patrick Mahomes · KC | 10.9% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.012 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Kaelon Black · SF | 23.3% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.054 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Chris Collier · LV | 13.0% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Ricky Pearsall · SF | 25.9% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Emmett Johnson · KC | 17.4% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.030 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Travis Kelce · KC | 31.1% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.096 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Noah Gray · KC | 10.6% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.011 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Marvin Mims Jr. · DEN | 11.4% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.013 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Emanuel Wilson · SEA | 22.5% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.600 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Tyquan Thornton · KC | 11.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.789 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Pat Bryant · DEN | 16.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.026 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Trey Lance · LAC | 14.1% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Mike Washington Jr. · LV | 13.1% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.017 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Keaton Mitchell · LAC | 19.3% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.037 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.