SEA @ ARI
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · final
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was SEA 31 – 7 ARI, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: SEA 31 – 7 ARI
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 21, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Seattle Seahawks · 31
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 235Forecast 109 (49–204) · outside range | 0Forecast 1 (0–22) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 4.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0 | 0 | 9Forecast 8 (3–15) · in range | 155Forecast 97 (45–179) · in range | YesForecast 48.7% |
| Emanuel Wilson | 0 | 92Forecast 3 (0–29) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 7.0% |
| Jadarian Price | 0 | 52Forecast 44 (10–119) · in range | 1Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 8Forecast 14 (0–44) · in range | NoForecast 36.8% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 4 | 3Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 35Forecast 19 (0–55) · in range | NoForecast 15.6% |
| Cooper Kupp | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 20Forecast 34 (9–80) · in range | NoForecast 21.3% |
| Elijah Arroyo | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | No |
| George Holani | 0 | 13Forecast 14 (1–57) · in range | 1 | 2 | NoForecast 19.0% |
| AJ Barner | 0 | 1 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 8Forecast 19 (0–53) · in range | YesForecast 15.6% |
| Jacardia WrightNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 9 (0–47) | — | — | —Forecast 11.7% |
| Tory HortonNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 21 (0–57) | —Forecast 17.9% |
| Velus Jones Jr.No line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 5 (0–37) | — | — | —Forecast 8.9% |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 0 | 1 | -10 | No |
| Player lines added up | 235 | 162 | 19 | 235 |
21 other Seattle Seahawks players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Arizona Cardinals · 7
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 95Forecast 225 (127–364) · outside range | 7Forecast 8 (0–43) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.5% |
| Jeremiyah Love | 0 | 29Forecast 25 (4–81) · in range | 3Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 16Forecast 20 (0–55) · in range | NoForecast 36.9% |
| Trey McBride | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 7 (3–13) · in range | 41Forecast 73 (33–136) · in range | YesForecast 42.8% |
| Zonovan Knight | 0 | 24Forecast 11 (1–51) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 19.2% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0 | 10Forecast 40 (10–107) · in range | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 9Forecast 9 (0–35) · in range | NoForecast 35.7% |
| Michael Wilson | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 18Forecast 50 (18–105) · in range | NoForecast 28.9% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 5 (2–10) · in range | 11Forecast 53 (20–107) · outside range | NoForecast 25.9% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 27 (3–69) · outside range | NoForecast 17.9% |
| James ConnerNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 36 (8–102) | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 21 (1–56) | —Forecast 39.5% |
| Trey BensonNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 25 (4–84) | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 22 (2–57) | —Forecast 31.8% |
| Player lines added up | 95 | 70 | 17 | 95 |
25 other Arizona Cardinals players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks75.1% to winPregame projection
26–20
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Arizona Cardinals22.0% to winSeattle Seahawks were the projected winner, 75.1% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
ARI -7
8 in 10 outcomes between -24 and +10
Expected total
46
8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 63
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameSEA 26 — 20 ARIwin chance SEA 75.1% · ARI 22.0%total 46 (29–63)margin -7
SEA
Likely TD scorers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 48.7%
Jadarian Price 36.8%
Cooper Kupp 21.3%
Passing
Drew Lock 109 pass yds (49–204)
Rushing leaders
Jadarian Price 44 rush yds (10–119)
George Holani 14 rush yds (1–57)
Receiving leaders
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8 rec · 97 yds
Cooper Kupp 3 rec · 34 yds
Jadarian Price 2 rec · 14 yds
ARI
Likely TD scorers
Trey McBride 42.8%
James Conner 39.5%
Jeremiyah Love 36.9%
Passing
Jacoby Brissett 225 pass yds (127–364)
Rushing leaders
Tyler Allgeier 40 rush yds (10–107)
James Conner 36 rush yds (8–102)
Receiving leaders
Trey McBride 7 rec · 73 yds
Kendrick Bourne 5 rec · 53 yds
Michael Wilson 4 rec · 50 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
22.0%
ARI to win
Sportsbook win chance
34.9%
ARI to win, read from 5 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-12.9 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
46 vs 41
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 21 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 8 (3–15) | 97 (45–179) | 48.7% | |
| Trey McBride | ARI | 7 (3–13) | 73 (33–136) | 42.8% | |
| Kendrick Bourne | ARI | 5 (2–10) | 53 (20–107) | 25.9% | |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | 4 (1–9) | 50 (18–105) | 28.9% | |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | 3 (1–7) | 34 (9–80) | 21.3% | |
| James Conner | ARI | 2 (0–5) | 21 (1–56) | 39.5% | |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | 2 (0–5) | 20 (0–55) | 36.9% | |
| Jadarian Price | SEA | 2 (0–4) | 14 (0–44) | 36.8% | |
| Trey Benson | ARI | 2 (0–5) | 22 (2–57) | 31.8% | |
| Tory Horton | SEA | 2 (0–5) | 21 (0–57) | 17.9% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | 2 (0–5) | 27 (3–69) | 17.9% | |
| AJ Barner | SEA | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–53) | 15.6% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–55) | 15.6% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 1 (0–3) | 9 (0–35) | 35.7% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 21 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 48.7% Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA
- 42.8% Trey McBride · ARI
- 39.5% James Conner · ARI
- 36.9% Jeremiyah Love · ARI
- 36.8% Jadarian Price · SEA
- 35.7% Tyler Allgeier · ARI
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- ca73fe0590cd01cf
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET