MIA @ SF
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · final
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was MIA 13 – 35 SF, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: MIA 13 – 35 SF
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 21, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Miami Dolphins · 13
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 197Forecast 239 (129–399) · in range | 6Forecast 30 (5–97) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 31.7% |
| De'Von Achane | 0 | 74Forecast 61 (17–154) · in range | 3Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 19Forecast 33 (10–75) · in range | NoForecast 50.9% |
| Ryan Miller | 0 | 0 | 1 | 77 | Yes |
| Malik Washington | 0 | 4 | 4Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 43Forecast 38 (12–86) · in range | NoForecast 25.3% |
| Caleb Douglas | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 5 (2–10) · in range | 19Forecast 61 (24–124) · outside range | NoForecast 28.6% |
| DJ Herman | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | No |
| Greg Dulcich | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 17Forecast 23 (2–61) · in range | NoForecast 14.7% |
| Jaylen Wright | 0 | 11Forecast 9 (0–47) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 15.7% |
| Ollie Gordon | 0 | 7Forecast 2 (0–26) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 8.3% |
| Will Kacmarek | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | No |
| Chris Bell | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 13 (0–44) · in range | NoForecast 9.8% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.No line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 11 (0–40) | —Forecast 9.8% |
| Player lines added up | 197 | 102 | 14 | 197 |
21 other Miami Dolphins players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
San Francisco 49ers · 35
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 287Forecast 217 (121–354) · in range | 30Forecast 12 (1–56) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 12.8% |
| George Kittle | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 80Forecast 38 (12–84) · in range | YesForecast 28.5% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0 | 23Forecast 47 (12–123) · in range | 4Forecast 5 (2–10) · in range | 43Forecast 44 (17–91) · in range | YesForecast 52.5% |
| Mike Evans | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 54Forecast 42 (14–91) · in range | NoForecast 34.5% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 0 | 4 | 3Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 31Forecast 44 (16–94) · in range | NoForecast 35.0% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 34Forecast 19 (0–57) · in range | NoForecast 17.8% |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | Yes |
| Kaelon Black | 0 | 25Forecast 45 (11–119) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 30.3% |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | No |
| Jordan James | 0 | 15Forecast 6 (0–40) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 11.9% |
| Brandon AiyukNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 4 (1–9) | —Forecast 48 (17–101) | —Forecast 31.8% |
| Ricky PearsallNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 3 (1–7) | —Forecast 35 (9–82) | —Forecast 23.5% |
| Mac Jones | 0Forecast 98 (44–186) · outside range | -2Forecast 3 (0–30) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 6.9% |
| Player lines added up | 287 | 95 | 20 | 287 |
26 other San Francisco 49ers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Miami Dolphins23.1% to winPregame projection
20–26
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
San Francisco 49ers74.4% to winSan Francisco 49ers were the projected winner, 74.4% to win.
About 2% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
SF +6
8 in 10 outcomes between -10 and +23
Expected total
46
8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 63
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameMIA 20 — 26 SFwin chance MIA 23.1% · SF 74.4%total 46 (29–63)margin +6
MIA
Likely TD scorers
De'Von Achane 50.9%
Malik Willis 31.7%
Caleb Douglas 28.6%
Passing
Malik Willis 239 pass yds (129–399)
Rushing leaders
De'Von Achane 61 rush yds (17–154)
Malik Willis 30 rush yds (5–97)
Receiving leaders
Caleb Douglas 5 rec · 61 yds
De'Von Achane 4 rec · 33 yds
Malik Washington 4 rec · 38 yds
SF
Likely TD scorers
Christian McCaffrey 52.5%
Deebo Samuel Sr. 35.0%
Mike Evans 34.5%
Passing
Brock Purdy 217 pass yds (121–354)
Rushing leaders
Christian McCaffrey 47 rush yds (12–123)
Brock Purdy 12 rush yds (1–56)
Receiving leaders
Christian McCaffrey 5 rec · 44 yds
Deebo Samuel Sr. 4 rec · 44 yds
Mike Evans 4 rec · 42 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
74.4%
SF to win
Sportsbook win chance
87.8%
SF to win, read from 5 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-13.4 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
46 vs 45
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 20 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 5 (2–10) | 44 (17–91) | 52.5% | |
| Caleb Douglas | MIA | 5 (2–10) | 61 (24–124) | 28.6% | |
| De'Von Achane | MIA | 4 (1–8) | 33 (10–75) | 50.9% | |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF | 4 (1–9) | 44 (16–94) | 35.0% | |
| Mike Evans | SF | 4 (1–8) | 42 (14–91) | 34.5% | |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 4 (1–9) | 48 (17–101) | 31.8% | |
| George Kittle | SF | 4 (1–8) | 38 (12–84) | 28.5% | |
| Malik Washington | MIA | 4 (1–8) | 38 (12–86) | 25.3% | |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | 3 (1–7) | 35 (9–82) | 23.5% | |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF | 2 (0–4) | 19 (0–57) | 17.8% | |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | 2 (0–5) | 23 (2–61) | 14.7% | |
| Chris Bell | MIA | 1 (0–3) | 13 (0–44) | 9.8% | |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | MIA | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–40) | 9.8% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 19 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 52.5% Christian McCaffrey · SF
- 50.9% De'Von Achane · MIA
- 35.0% Deebo Samuel Sr. · SF
- 34.5% Mike Evans · SF
- 31.8% Brandon Aiyuk · SF
- 31.7% Malik Willis · MIA
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 21d25c101ab52d04
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET