LV @ LAC
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · final
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was LV 26 – 14 LAC, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: LV 26 – 14 LAC
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 21, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Las Vegas Raiders · 26
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 253Forecast 196 (108–324) · in range | 1Forecast 5 (0–31) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 8.5% |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 119Forecast 33 (8–77) · outside range | YesForecast 23.7% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 0 | 48Forecast 64 (20–150) · in range | 4Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 15Forecast 36 (12–79) · in range | NoForecast 52.2% |
| Dareke Young | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 | No |
| Jack Bech | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 25Forecast 21 (1–57) · in range | NoForecast 18.8% |
| Cody White | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | Yes |
| Michael Mayer | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 23Forecast 38 (13–82) · in range | NoForecast 24.4% |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | No |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 9Forecast 34 (9–80) · in range | NoForecast 24.6% |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 0 | 7Forecast 13 (1–60) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 11.0% |
| Connor Heyward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Malik Benson | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 11 (0–39) · in range | NoForecast 12.1% |
| Brock BowersNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 5 (1–10) | —Forecast 50 (19–104) | —Forecast 35.0% |
| Chris CollierNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 6 (0–40) | — | — | —Forecast 12.6% |
| Player lines added up | 253 | 57 | 19 | 253 |
22 other Las Vegas Raiders players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Los Angeles Chargers · 14
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 192Forecast 219 (120–362) · in range | 2Forecast 20 (2–76) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 16.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | 0 | 94Forecast 44 (11–116) · in range | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 21Forecast 8 (0–33) · in range | YesForecast 42.5% |
| Tre Harris | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 53Forecast 30 (7–71) · in range | NoForecast 19.4% |
| Keaton Mitchell | 0 | 24Forecast 12 (1–57) · in range | 1 | 15 | NoForecast 13.2% |
| Ladd McConkey | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 35Forecast 48 (17–104) · in range | NoForecast 30.7% |
| Charlie Kolar | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | No |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 18Forecast 22 (0–60) · in range | YesForecast 14.1% |
| Quentin Johnston | 0 | 7 | 1Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 7Forecast 39 (12–88) · outside range | NoForecast 26.2% |
| Brenen Thompson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | No |
| David Njoku | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 9Forecast 40 (13–87) · outside range | NoForecast 24.5% |
| Kimani Vidal | 0 | 0Forecast 13 (1–57) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 18.0% |
| Amar JohnsonNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 6 (0–40) | — | — | —Forecast 14.9% |
| Trey LanceNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 75 (30–150) | —Forecast 15 (1–62) | — | — | —Forecast 14.9% |
| Player lines added up | 192 | 127 | 15 | 192 |
25 other Los Angeles Chargers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Las Vegas Raiders30.5% to winPregame projection
15–22
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Los Angeles Chargers66.9% to winLos Angeles Chargers were the projected winner, 66.9% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
LAC +7
8 in 10 outcomes between -9 and +23
Expected total
37
8 in 10 outcomes between 21 and 54
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameLV 15 — 22 LACwin chance LV 30.5% · LAC 66.9%total 37 (21–54)margin +7
LV
Likely TD scorers
Ashton Jeanty 52.2%
Jalen Nailor 24.6%
Michael Mayer 24.4%
Passing
Kirk Cousins 196 pass yds (108–324)
Rushing leaders
Ashton Jeanty 64 rush yds (20–150)
Mike Washington Jr. 13 rush yds (1–60)
Receiving leaders
Ashton Jeanty 4 rec · 36 yds
Michael Mayer 4 rec · 38 yds
Jalen Nailor 3 rec · 34 yds
LAC
Likely TD scorers
Omarion Hampton 42.5%
Quentin Johnston 26.2%
David Njoku 24.5%
Passing
Justin Herbert 219 pass yds (120–362)
Rushing leaders
Omarion Hampton 44 rush yds (11–116)
Justin Herbert 20 rush yds (2–76)
Receiving leaders
Quentin Johnston 4 rec · 39 yds
David Njoku 4 rec · 40 yds
Tre Harris 3 rec · 30 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
66.9%
LAC to win
Sportsbook win chance
72.9%
LAC to win, read from 5 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-6 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
37 vs 43.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 21 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 4 (1–8) | 36 (12–79) | 52.2% | |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | 4 (1–8) | 39 (12–88) | 26.2% | |
| David Njoku | LAC | 4 (1–8) | 40 (13–87) | 24.5% | |
| Michael Mayer | LV | 4 (1–8) | 38 (13–82) | 24.4% | |
| Jalen Nailor | LV | 3 (1–7) | 34 (9–80) | 24.6% | |
| Tre Tucker | LV | 3 (1–7) | 33 (8–77) | 23.7% | |
| Tre Harris | LAC | 3 (1–7) | 30 (7–71) | 19.4% | |
| Jack Bech | LV | 2 (0–5) | 21 (1–57) | 18.8% | |
| Oronde Gadsden II | LAC | 2 (0–5) | 22 (0–60) | 14.1% | |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–33) | 42.5% | |
| Malik Benson | LV | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–39) | 12.1% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 19 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 52.2% Ashton Jeanty · LV
- 42.5% Omarion Hampton · LAC
- 26.2% Quentin Johnston · LAC
- 24.6% Jalen Nailor · LV
- 24.5% David Njoku · LAC
- 24.4% Michael Mayer · LV
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 8338e138d28839fb
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
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- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET