NO @ BAL
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · final
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was NO 24 – 17 BAL, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: NO 24 – 17 BAL
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 20, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
New Orleans Saints · 24
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 252Forecast 238 (135–383) · in range | 23Forecast 9 (0–47) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 13.1% |
| Chris Olave | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 6 (2–12) · in range | 86Forecast 77 (33–149) · in range | YesForecast 36.0% |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 66Forecast 36 (10–83) · in range | NoForecast 23.7% |
| Devaughn Vele | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 64Forecast 35 (10–80) · in range | NoForecast 24.4% |
| Travis Etienne | 0 | 25Forecast 30 (5–92) · in range | 2Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 6Forecast 35 (12–77) · outside range | NoForecast 42.4% |
| Alvin Kamara | 0 | 15Forecast 35 (8–98) · in range | 5Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 7Forecast 22 (3–57) · in range | NoForecast 36.8% |
| Bryce Lance | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 8Forecast 16 (0–48) · in range | NoForecast 11.5% |
| Oscar Delp | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | No |
| Kevin Austin | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 7Forecast 10 (0–38) · in range | NoForecast 9.6% |
| CJ Donaldson | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–26) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 11.8% |
| Kendre MillerNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 23 (3–75) | — | — | —Forecast 26.3% |
| Mason TiptonNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 8 (0–34) | —Forecast 9.5% |
| Noah FantNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 3 (1–7) | —Forecast 31 (8–72) | —Forecast 24.8% |
| Spencer RattlerNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 155 (82–263) | —Forecast 7 (0–43) | — | — | —Forecast 10.4% |
| Player lines added up | 252 | 65 | 27 | 252 |
22 other New Orleans Saints players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Baltimore Ravens · 17
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 235Forecast 248 (131–421) · in range | 34Forecast 14 (1–61) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 22.9% |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 1 (0–3) · outside range | 88Forecast 10 (0–39) · outside range | YesForecast 10.6% |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 68Forecast 79 (25–185) · in range | 3 | 19 | YesForecast 73.0% |
| Mark Andrews | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 49Forecast 40 (13–89) · in range | NoForecast 27.0% |
| Devontez Walker | 0 | 0 | 1 | 47 | No |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 6Forecast 5 (0–36) · in range | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 12Forecast 10 (0–37) · in range | NoForecast 20.2% |
| LaJohntay Wester | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | No |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 6Forecast 15 (0–51) · in range | NoForecast 11.6% |
| Tyler HuntleyNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 120 (58–218) | —Forecast 8 (0–47) | — | — | —Forecast 14.0% |
| Player lines added up | 235 | 108 | 21 | 235 |
23 other Baltimore Ravens players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints26.8% to winPregame projection
19–26
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Baltimore Ravens70.7% to winBaltimore Ravens were the projected winner, 70.7% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
BAL +7
8 in 10 outcomes between -9 and +24
Expected total
45
8 in 10 outcomes between 28 and 62
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameNO 19 — 26 BALwin chance NO 26.8% · BAL 70.7%total 45 (28–62)margin +7
NO
Likely TD scorers
Travis Etienne 42.4%
Alvin Kamara 36.8%
Kendre Miller 26.3%
Passing
Tyler Shough 238 pass yds (135–383)
Rushing leaders
Alvin Kamara 35 rush yds (8–98)
Travis Etienne 30 rush yds (5–92)
Receiving leaders
Travis Etienne 4 rec · 35 yds
Noah Fant 3 rec · 31 yds
Devaughn Vele 3 rec · 35 yds
BAL
Likely TD scorers
Derrick Henry 73.0%
Mark Andrews 27.0%
Lamar Jackson 22.9%
Passing
Lamar Jackson 248 pass yds (131–421)
Rushing leaders
Derrick Henry 79 rush yds (25–185)
Lamar Jackson 14 rush yds (1–61)
Receiving leaders
Mark Andrews 4 rec · 40 yds
Justice Hill 1 rec · 10 yds
Chris Moore 1 rec · 15 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
70.7%
BAL to win
Sportsbook win chance
77.8%
BAL to win, read from 9 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-7.1 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
45 vs 45.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 20 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | NO | 4 (1–8) | 35 (12–77) | 42.4% | |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | 4 (1–8) | 40 (13–89) | 27.0% | |
| Noah Fant | NO | 3 (1–7) | 31 (8–72) | 24.8% | |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | 3 (1–7) | 35 (10–80) | 24.4% | |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | 3 (1–7) | 36 (10–83) | 23.7% | |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 2 (0–5) | 22 (3–57) | 36.8% | |
| Bryce Lance | NO | 2 (0–4) | 16 (0–48) | 11.5% | |
| Justice Hill | BAL | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–37) | 20.2% | |
| Chris Moore | BAL | 1 (0–4) | 15 (0–51) | 11.6% | |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–39) | 10.6% | |
| Kevin Austin | NO | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–38) | 9.6% | |
| Mason Tipton | NO | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–34) | 9.5% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 19 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 73.0% Derrick Henry · BAL
- 42.4% Travis Etienne · NO
- 36.8% Alvin Kamara · NO
- 27.0% Mark Andrews · BAL
- 26.3% Kendre Miller · NO
- 24.8% Noah Fant · NO
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 4ad4564c922a5e98
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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