CLE @ TB
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · final
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was CLE 23 – 19 TB, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: CLE 23 – 19 TB
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 20, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Cleveland Browns · 23
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 238Forecast 222 (121–368) · in range | 22Forecast 20 (2–75) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 15.5% |
| Denzel Boston | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 95Forecast 39 (11–90) · outside range | YesForecast 26.1% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 54Forecast 37 (11–84) · in range | NoForecast 25.1% |
| Quinshon Judkins | 0 | 21Forecast 45 (12–112) · in range | 5Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 27Forecast 18 (0–50) · in range | NoForecast 39.1% |
| KC Concepcion | 0 | -6Forecast 7 (0–43) · outside range | 6Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 28Forecast 48 (17–101) · in range | NoForecast 32.8% |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | Yes |
| Raheim Sanders | 0 | 4Forecast 6 (0–38) · in range | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 7Forecast 19 (0–53) · in range | NoForecast 20.3% |
| Isaiah Bond | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | No |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 3 (1–7) · outside range | 0Forecast 37 (11–84) · outside range | NoForecast 22.9% |
| Shedeur SandersNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 195 (104–328) | —Forecast 6 (0–43) | — | — | —Forecast 8.3% |
| Player lines added up | 238 | 44 | 24 | 238 |
23 other Cleveland Browns players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 19
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 182Forecast 217 (120–356) · in range | 29Forecast 13 (1–62) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 17.9% |
| Bucky Irving | 0 | 89Forecast 44 (11–115) · in range | 4Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 1Forecast 36 (12–80) · outside range | NoForecast 50.4% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 0 | 12 | 3Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 46Forecast 35 (10–79) · in range | NoForecast 21.9% |
| Tez Johnson | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 49Forecast 7 (0–33) · outside range | NoForecast 10.4% |
| Cade Otton | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 38Forecast 37 (12–83) · in range | NoForecast 21.6% |
| Ted Hurst III | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 27Forecast 23 (2–60) · in range | NoForecast 14.5% |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0 | 10Forecast 18 (2–68) · in range | 3 | 5 | NoForecast 24.1% |
| Emeka Egbuka | 0 | -3 | 3Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 16Forecast 45 (15–97) · in range | YesForecast 24.4% |
| Jalen McMillanNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 25 (3–64) | —Forecast 16.6% |
| Sean TuckerNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 10 (1–50) | — | — | —Forecast 19.6% |
| Player lines added up | 182 | 137 | 21 | 182 |
20 other Tampa Bay Buccaneers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cleveland Browns36.4% to winPregame projection
18–24
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers60.8% to winTampa Bay Buccaneers were the projected winner, 60.8% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
TB +5
8 in 10 outcomes between -12 and +21
Expected total
42
8 in 10 outcomes between 25 and 59
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameCLE 18 — 24 TBwin chance CLE 36.4% · TB 60.8%total 42 (25–59)margin +5
CLE
Likely TD scorers
Quinshon Judkins 39.1%
KC Concepcion 32.8%
Denzel Boston 26.1%
Passing
Deshaun Watson 222 pass yds (121–368)
Rushing leaders
Quinshon Judkins 45 rush yds (12–112)
Deshaun Watson 20 rush yds (2–75)
Receiving leaders
KC Concepcion 4 rec · 48 yds
Harold Fannin Jr. 4 rec · 37 yds
Denzel Boston 3 rec · 39 yds
TB
Likely TD scorers
Bucky Irving 50.4%
Emeka Egbuka 24.4%
Kenny Gainwell 24.1%
Passing
Baker Mayfield 217 pass yds (120–356)
Rushing leaders
Bucky Irving 44 rush yds (11–115)
Kenny Gainwell 18 rush yds (2–68)
Receiving leaders
Bucky Irving 4 rec · 36 yds
Emeka Egbuka 4 rec · 45 yds
Cade Otton 4 rec · 37 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
60.8%
TB to win
Sportsbook win chance
77.6%
TB to win, read from 9 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-16.8 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
42 vs 41.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 18 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | TB | 4 (1–8) | 36 (12–80) | 50.4% | |
| KC Concepcion | CLE | 4 (1–9) | 48 (17–101) | 32.8% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | 4 (1–8) | 37 (11–84) | 25.1% | |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | 4 (1–8) | 45 (15–97) | 24.4% | |
| Cade Otton | TB | 4 (1–8) | 37 (12–83) | 21.6% | |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | 3 (1–7) | 39 (11–90) | 26.1% | |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | 3 (1–7) | 37 (11–84) | 22.9% | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | 3 (1–7) | 35 (10–79) | 21.9% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–50) | 39.1% | |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–53) | 20.3% | |
| Ted Hurst III | TB | 2 (0–5) | 23 (2–60) | 14.5% | |
| Tez Johnson | TB | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–33) | 10.4% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 17 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 50.4% Bucky Irving · TB
- 39.1% Quinshon Judkins · CLE
- 32.8% KC Concepcion · CLE
- 26.1% Denzel Boston · CLE
- 25.1% Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE
- 24.4% Emeka Egbuka · TB
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 8f739d6eb0c3bd33
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET