CAR @ ATL
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · final
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was CAR 34 – 3 ATL, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: CAR 34 – 3 ATL
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 20, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Carolina Panthers · 34
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 287Forecast 229 (125–378) · in range | 6Forecast 7 (0–42) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 15.7% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 101Forecast 52 (19–111) · in range | NoForecast 31.3% |
| Jalen Coker | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 5 (2–10) · in range | 66Forecast 61 (23–124) · in range | NoForecast 40.1% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 53Forecast 33 (7–97) · in range | 2Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 11Forecast 17 (0–49) · in range | YesForecast 45.2% |
| Xavier Legette | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 64Forecast 15 (0–47) · outside range | NoForecast 14.3% |
| Darren Waller | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 33Forecast 10 (0–38) · in range | YesForecast 10.4% |
| Mitchell Evans | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 13Forecast 8 (0–35) · in range | NoForecast 9.4% |
| Jonathon Brooks | 0 | 16Forecast 10 (1–50) · in range | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | -5Forecast 9 (0–39) · outside range | NoForecast 21.6% |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 4Forecast 20 (0–55) · in range | NoForecast 16.4% |
| Devin Lloyd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Ja'Tavion SandersNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 11 (0–39) | —Forecast 10.7% |
| AJ Dillon | 0 | -3Forecast 17 (2–67) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 17.7% |
| Kenny Pickett | 0 | -4 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Player lines added up | 287 | 68 | 23 | 287 |
23 other Carolina Panthers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Atlanta Falcons · 3
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 86Forecast 198 (106–331) · outside range | 20 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Bijan Robinson | 0 | 72Forecast 70 (21–164) · in range | 3Forecast 7 (3–14) · in range | 9Forecast 78 (36–145) · outside range | NoForecast 62.6% |
| Jack Strand | 59 | 16 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Brian Robinson | 0 | 51Forecast 23 (3–75) · in range | 2 | 16 | NoForecast 18.5% |
| Drake London | 0 | -2 | 4Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 51Forecast 51 (18–109) · in range | NoForecast 31.9% |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | No |
| Kyle Pitts | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 15Forecast 32 (8–75) · in range | NoForecast 21.1% |
| Zachariah Branch | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | No |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 11Forecast 29 (6–71) · in range | NoForecast 19.7% |
| Chris Blair | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | No |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 3Forecast 6 (0–31) · in range | NoForecast 7.8% |
| Player lines added up | 145 | 157 | 18 | 145 |
24 other Atlanta Falcons players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers36.7% to winPregame projection
21–25
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Atlanta Falcons60.2% to winAtlanta Falcons were the projected winner, 60.2% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
ATL +4
8 in 10 outcomes between -13 and +21
Expected total
46
8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 63
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameCAR 21 — 25 ATLwin chance CAR 36.7% · ATL 60.2%total 46 (29–63)margin +4
CAR
Likely TD scorers
Chuba Hubbard 45.2%
Jalen Coker 40.1%
Tetairoa McMillan 31.3%
Passing
Bryce Young 229 pass yds (125–378)
Rushing leaders
Chuba Hubbard 33 rush yds (7–97)
AJ Dillon 17 rush yds (2–67)
Receiving leaders
Jalen Coker 5 rec · 61 yds
Tetairoa McMillan 4 rec · 52 yds
Chuba Hubbard 2 rec · 17 yds
ATL
Likely TD scorers
Bijan Robinson 62.6%
Drake London 31.9%
Kyle Pitts 21.1%
Passing
Cooper Rush 198 pass yds (106–331)
Rushing leaders
Bijan Robinson 70 rush yds (21–164)
Brian Robinson 23 rush yds (3–75)
Receiving leaders
Bijan Robinson 7 rec · 78 yds
Drake London 4 rec · 51 yds
Kyle Pitts 3 rec · 32 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
60.2%
ATL to win
Sportsbook win chance
42.4%
ATL to win, read from 9 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+17.8 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
46 vs 43.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 18 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 7 (3–14) | 78 (36–145) | 62.6% | |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | 5 (2–10) | 61 (23–124) | 40.1% | |
| Drake London | ATL | 4 (1–9) | 51 (18–109) | 31.9% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 4 (1–9) | 52 (19–111) | 31.3% | |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | 3 (1–7) | 32 (8–75) | 21.1% | |
| Jahan Dotson | ATL | 3 (1–6) | 29 (6–71) | 19.7% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 2 (0–4) | 17 (0–49) | 45.2% | |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | 2 (0–5) | 20 (0–55) | 16.4% | |
| Xavier Legette | CAR | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–47) | 14.3% | |
| Jonathon Brooks | CAR | 1 (0–3) | 9 (0–39) | 21.6% | |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–39) | 10.7% | |
| Darren Waller | CAR | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–38) | 10.4% | |
| Mitchell Evans | CAR | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–35) | 9.4% | |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–31) | 7.8% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 17 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 62.6% Bijan Robinson · ATL
- 45.2% Chuba Hubbard · CAR
- 40.1% Jalen Coker · CAR
- 31.9% Drake London · ATL
- 31.3% Tetairoa McMillan · CAR
- 21.6% Jonathon Brooks · CAR
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 6a02e5f9cf1f8e90
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
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- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
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- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
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- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET