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Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET

Carolina PanthersatAtlanta FalconsEXPERIMENTAL

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Carolina PanthersAtlanta FalconsSaved on this device

88°F · 5 mph wind from the E · 1% chance of rain · mostly sunny — the schedule carries no roof for this stadium, so this is the open-air forecast — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

CAR @ ATL

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

CAR 21 — 25 ATL

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

CAR 36.8% · ATL 60.3%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.9%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 29 and 63

ATL winning margin

a minus means CAR wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -13 and 20

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-09-17T14:17:00Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

CAR 21 — 25 ATLwin chance CAR 36.8% · ATL 60.3%total 46 (29–63)margin +4

CAR

Likely TD scorers

Chuba Hubbard 45.2% · available role uncertain

Jalen Coker 40.1% · questionable

Tetairoa McMillan 31.3% · available role uncertain

Passing

Bryce Young 229 pass yds (125–378) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Chuba Hubbard 33 rush yds (7–97) · available role uncertain

AJ Dillon 17 rush yds (2–67) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

John Metchie III 3.2 rec · 28.4 yds/g at NYJ

Darren Waller 3 rec · 35.4 yds/g at MIA

Receiving leaders

Jalen Coker 5 rec · 61 yds · questionable

Tetairoa McMillan 4 rec · 52 yds · available role uncertain

Chuba Hubbard 2 rec · 17 yds · available role uncertain

ATL

Likely TD scorers

Bijan Robinson 62.6% · available role uncertain

Drake London 31.9% · available role uncertain

Kyle Pitts 21.1% · available role uncertain

Passing

Cooper Rush 198 pass yds (106–331) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Bijan Robinson 70 rush yds (21–164) · available role uncertain

Brian Robinson 23 rush yds (3–75) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Olamide Zaccheaus 2.5 rec · 22.4 yds/g at CHI

Tua Tagovailoa 171 pass yds/g at MIA

Receiving leaders

Bijan Robinson 7 rec · 78 yds · available role uncertain

Drake London 4 rec · 51 yds · available role uncertain

Kyle Pitts 3 rec · 32 yds · available role uncertain

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Carolina Panthers	9	21	33
Atlanta Falcons	13	25	37

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (CAR – ATL)	Chance
17–20	0.78%
20–17	0.69%
24–27	0.64%
27–24	0.63%
20–23	0.62%
20–24	0.60%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	10.4%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	7.0%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.7%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.8%	4.4%
Any of the four	27.8%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

CAR touchdowns

2.4

ATL touchdowns

2.7

CAR field goals

1.7

ATL field goals

1.8

Tied after regulation

3.8%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Player projections · 19 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Bijan Robinson	ATL	role uncertain	7 (3–14)	78 (36–145)	62.6%
Jalen Coker	CAR	questionable	5 (2–10)	61 (23–124)	40.1%
Drake London	ATL	role uncertain	4 (1–9)	51 (18–109)	31.9%
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	role uncertain	4 (1–9)	52 (19–111)	31.3%
Kyle Pitts	ATL	role uncertain	3 (1–7)	32 (8–75)	21.1%
Jahan Dotson	ATL	role uncertain	3 (1–6)	29 (6–71)	19.7%
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	role uncertain	2 (0–4)	17 (0–49)	45.2%
Tommy Tremble	CAR	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	20 (0–55)	16.4%
Xavier Legette	CAR	role uncertain	2 (0–4)	15 (0–47)	14.3%
Jonathon Brooks	CAR	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	9 (0–39)	21.6%
Ja'Tavion Sanders	CAR	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	11 (0–39)	10.7%
Darren Waller	CAR	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	10 (0–38)	10.4%
Mitchell Evans	CAR	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	8 (0–35)	9.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	6 (0–31)	7.8%

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Olamide Zaccheaus WR	ATL	active uncertain	CHI · 18g	2.5 rec · 22.4 yds
Tua Tagovailoa QB	ATL	questionable	MIA · 16g	2.7 rush yds · 171 pass yds
John Metchie III WR	CAR	active uncertain	NYJ · 9g	3.2 rec · 28.4 yds
Darren Waller TE	CAR	active uncertain	MIA · 8g	3 rec · 35.4 yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 18 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

62.6% Bijan Robinson · ATL · available role uncertain
45.2% Chuba Hubbard · CAR · available role uncertain
40.1% Jalen Coker · CAR · questionable
31.9% Drake London · ATL · available role uncertain
31.3% Tetairoa McMillan · CAR · available role uncertain
21.6% Jonathon Brooks · CAR · available role uncertain

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: bb28c180207e8261
generated: 2026-09-17T14:17:00Z
kickoff: 2026-09-20T17:00Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.