DAL @ NYG
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 2026-09-14. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET · started
Dallas Cowboysat
New York GiantsEXPERIMENTAL
MetLife Stadium
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was DAL 20 – 28 NYG, from the Week 1 record.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
DAL 26 — 25 NYG
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
DAL 50.0% · NYG 47.0%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.0%
Total points (both teams)
51
8 in 10 simulations landed between 35 and 69
NYG winning margin
-1
a minus means DAL wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -18 and 17
Model details
From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T22:54:38Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameDAL 26 — 25 NYGwin chance DAL 50.0% · NYG 47.0%total 51 (35–69)margin -1
DAL
Likely TD scorers
Javonte Williams 37.0%
Ryan Flournoy 29.0%
George Pickens 22.3%
Passing
Dak Prescott 162 pass yds (45–291)
Rushing leaders
Javonte Williams 44 rush yds (15–90)
Dak Prescott 4 rush yds (0–24)
Receiving leaders
George Pickens 3 rec · 38 yds
CeeDee Lamb 3 rec · 37 yds
Ryan Flournoy 2 rec · 21 yds
NYG
Likely TD scorers
Cam Skattebo 43.1%
Jaxson Dart 38.1%
Devin Singletary 31.1%
Passing
Jaxson Dart 148 pass yds (41–264)
Rushing leaders
Tyrone Tracy Jr. 33 rush yds (9–73)
Cam Skattebo 26 rush yds (5–62)
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Darnell Mooney 2.1 rec · 29.5 yds/g at ATL
Calvin Austin III 2.3 rec · 25.3 yds/g at PIT
Isaiah Likely 2.5 rec · 27.9 yds/g at BAL
Receiving leaders
Malik Nabers 4 rec · 38 yds · questionable
Theo Johnson 3 rec · 27 yds
Cam Skattebo 2 rec · 17 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 14 | 26 | 38 |
| New York Giants | 13 | 25 | 37 |
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
47.0%
NYG to win
Sportsbook win chance
39.5%
NYG to win, read from 5 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+7.5 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
51 vs 47.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured 2026-09-13T22:54:38Z — before kickoff.
Player projections · 15 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | NYG | questionable | 4 (1–7) | 38 (8–88) | 26.0% |
| George Pickens | DAL | projected active | 3 (1–7) | 38 (6–91) | 22.3% |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 27 (2–72) | 18.3% |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | projected active | 3 (1–7) | 37 (7–89) | 11.9% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 17 (0–53) | 43.1% |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 21 (0–60) | 29.0% |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–52) | 26.0% |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 17 (0–52) | 17.8% |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–33) | 37.0% |
New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above
Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.
| Player | Team | Availability | Last club | Per game (prior club) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney WR | NYG | active uncertain | ATL · 15g | 2.1 rec · 29.5 yds |
| Calvin Austin III WR | NYG | out | PIT · 15g | 2.3 rec · 25.3 yds |
| Isaiah Likely TE | NYG | active uncertain | BAL · 11g | 2.5 rec · 27.9 yds |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 15 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 43.1% Cam Skattebo · NYG
- 38.1% Jaxson Dart · NYG
- 37.0% Javonte Williams · DAL
- 31.1% Devin Singletary · NYG
- 29.0% Ryan Flournoy · DAL
- 26.0% Malik Nabers · NYG · questionable
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- cbd7502a361cc8d0
- generated
- 2026-09-13T22:54:38Z
- kickoff
- 2026-09-14T00:20Z
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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