DAL @ NYG
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET · final
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was DAL 20 – 28 NYG, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: DAL 20 – 28 NYG
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Dallas Cowboys · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 175Forecast 162 (45–291) · in range | 14Forecast 4 (0–24) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 8.2% |
| Javonte Williams | 0 | 41Forecast 44 (15–90) · in range | 5Forecast 1 (0–3) · outside range | 31Forecast 6 (0–33) · in range | YesForecast 37.0% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 44Forecast 37 (7–89) · in range | YesForecast 11.9% |
| George Pickens | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 28Forecast 38 (6–91) · in range | NoForecast 22.3% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 22Forecast 21 (0–60) · in range | NoForecast 29.0% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | No |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | No |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | No |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | NoForecast 12.3% |
| Emari Demercado | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Hunter Luepke | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Jake Ferguson | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 6Forecast 17 (0–52) · in range | NoForecast 17.8% |
| Player lines added up | 175 | 69 | 22 | 175 |
23 other Dallas Cowboys players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
New York Giants · 28
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 230Forecast 148 (41–264) · in range | 54Forecast 14 (0–47) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 38.1% |
| Cam Skattebo | 0 | 81Forecast 26 (5–62) · outside range | 0Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 17 (0–53) · in range | YesForecast 43.1% |
| Isaiah Likely | 0 | 0 | 8 | 78 | Yes |
| Malik Nabers | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 4 (1–7) · in range | 69Forecast 38 (8–88) · in range | NoForecast 26.0% |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 16Forecast 18 (2–49) · in range | 4 | 22 | YesForecast 31.1% |
| Darnell Mooney | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | No |
| Malachi Fields | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | No |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 0 | 14Forecast 33 (9–73) · in range | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 18 (0–52) · in range | NoForecast 26.0% |
| Theo Johnson | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 9Forecast 27 (2–72) · in range | NoForecast 18.3% |
| Gunner OlszewskiNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 10.0% |
| Jameis WinstonNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 57 (0–200) | — | — | — | —Forecast 25.7% |
| Player lines added up | 230 | 165 | 23 | 230 |
23 other New York Giants players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys50.0% to winPregame projection
26–25
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
New York Giants47.0% to winDallas Cowboys were the projected winner, 50.0% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
NYG -1
8 in 10 outcomes between -18 and +17
Expected total
51
8 in 10 outcomes between 35 and 69
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameDAL 26 — 25 NYGwin chance DAL 50.0% · NYG 47.0%total 51 (35–69)margin -1
DAL
Likely TD scorers
Javonte Williams 37.0%
Ryan Flournoy 29.0%
George Pickens 22.3%
Passing
Dak Prescott 162 pass yds (45–291)
Rushing leaders
Javonte Williams 44 rush yds (15–90)
Dak Prescott 4 rush yds (0–24)
Receiving leaders
George Pickens 3 rec · 38 yds
CeeDee Lamb 3 rec · 37 yds
Ryan Flournoy 2 rec · 21 yds
NYG
Likely TD scorers
Cam Skattebo 43.1%
Jaxson Dart 38.1%
Devin Singletary 31.1%
Passing
Jaxson Dart 148 pass yds (41–264)
Rushing leaders
Tyrone Tracy Jr. 33 rush yds (9–73)
Cam Skattebo 26 rush yds (5–62)
Receiving leaders
Theo Johnson 3 rec · 27 yds
Cam Skattebo 2 rec · 17 yds
Tyrone Tracy Jr. 2 rec · 18 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
47.0%
NYG to win
Sportsbook win chance
39.5%
NYG to win, read from 5 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+7.5 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
51 vs 47.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 15 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | DAL | projected active | 3 (1–7) | 38 (6–91) | 22.3% |
| Theo Johnson | NYG | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 27 (2–72) | 18.3% |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | projected active | 3 (1–7) | 37 (7–89) | 11.9% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 17 (0–53) | 43.1% |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 21 (0–60) | 29.0% |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–52) | 26.0% |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 17 (0–52) | 17.8% |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–33) | 37.0% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 14 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 43.1% Cam Skattebo · NYG
- 38.1% Jaxson Dart · NYG
- 37.0% Javonte Williams · DAL
- 31.1% Devin Singletary · NYG
- 29.0% Ryan Flournoy · DAL
- 26.0% Tyrone Tracy Jr. · NYG
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- cbd7502a361cc8d0
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET