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Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · started

Washington CommandersatPhiladelphia EaglesEXPERIMENTAL

Lincoln Financial Field

Washington CommandersPhiladelphia EaglesSaved on this device

Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was WSH 22 – 24 PHI, from the Week 1 record.

Simulation story

5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

WSH @ PHI

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

WSH 19 — 28 PHI

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

WSH 32.0% · PHI 65.7%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.3%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 31 and 64

PHI winning margin

a minus means WSH wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -8 and 26

Model details

From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T18:02:15Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

WSH 19 — 28 PHIwin chance WSH 32.0% · PHI 65.7%total 47 (31–64)margin +9

WSH

Likely TD scorers

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 28.9%

Terry McLaurin 21.0%

Jayden Daniels 20.0%

Passing

Jayden Daniels 118 pass yds (18–249)

Rushing leaders

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 27 rush yds (6–65)

Jayden Daniels 18 rush yds (1–50)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Rachaad White 2.2 rec · 12.1 yds/g at TB

Stefon Diggs 4.7 rec · 53.5 yds/g at NE

Chig Okonkwo 3.2 rec · 31.7 yds/g at TEN

Receiving leaders

Terry McLaurin 4 rec · 43 yds

Treylon Burks 2 rec · 19 yds

John Bates 1 rec · 8 yds

PHI

Likely TD scorers

Dallas Goedert 56.3%

Saquon Barkley 31.9%

Jalen Hurts 24.7%

Passing

Jalen Hurts 159 pass yds (53–275)

Rushing leaders

Saquon Barkley 59 rush yds (23–106)

Tank Bigsby 17 rush yds (1–52)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Jaydon Blue 0.2 rec · 0.8 yds/g at DAL

Hollywood Brown 3.1 rec · 36.7 yds/g at KC

Dontayvion Wicks 2.3 rec · 25.5 yds/g at GB

Receiving leaders

DeVonta Smith 4 rec · 39 yds

Dallas Goedert 3 rec · 31 yds

Saquon Barkley 1 rec · 12 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Washington Commanders	7	19	31
Philadelphia Eagles	16	28	40

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

65.7%

PHI to win

Sportsbook win chance

70.0%

PHI to win, read from 11 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-4.3 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

47 vs 44

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.

Prices captured 2026-09-13T17:35:06Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 16 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Terry McLaurin	WSH	projected active	4 (1–7)	43 (10–97)	21.0%
DeVonta Smith	PHI	projected active	4 (1–7)	39 (8–88)	18.1%
Dallas Goedert	PHI	projected active	3 (1–6.1)	31 (5–76)	56.3%
Treylon Burks	WSH	projected active	2 (0–5)	19 (0–57)	7.2%
Saquon Barkley	PHI	projected active	1 (0–4)	12 (0–46)	31.9%
John Bates	WSH	projected active	1 (0–3)	8 (0–39)	9.8%
Ben Sinnott	WSH	projected active	1 (0–3)	10 (0–43)	7.3%
Jaylin Lane	WSH	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	6 (0–36)	—

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Jaydon Blue RB	PHI	active uncertain	DAL · 6g	0.2 rec · 0.8 yds · 25.7 rush yds
Hollywood Brown WR	PHI	active uncertain	KC · 16g	3.1 rec · 36.7 yds
Dontayvion Wicks WR	PHI	active uncertain	GB · 13g	2.3 rec · 25.5 yds
Rachaad White RB	WSH	active uncertain	TB · 18g	2.2 rec · 12.1 yds · 33.3 rush yds
Stefon Diggs WR	WSH	active uncertain	NE · 21g	4.7 rec · 53.5 yds
Chig Okonkwo TE	WSH	active uncertain	TEN · 18g	3.2 rec · 31.7 yds
Dyami Brown WR	WSH	active uncertain	JAX · 12g	1.7 rec · 18.9 yds
Van Jefferson WR	WSH	active uncertain	TEN · 17g	1.9 rec · 26.6 yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 14 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

56.3% Dallas Goedert · PHI
31.9% Saquon Barkley · PHI
28.9% Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WSH
24.7% Jalen Hurts · PHI
21.5% Tank Bigsby · PHI
21.0% Terry McLaurin · WSH

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 4049dbee4e953ae7
generated: 2026-09-13T18:02:15Z
kickoff: 2026-09-13T20:25Z
state: SETTLED

Player-family model provenance (3 published)

Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.