WSH @ PHI
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · final
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was WSH 22 – 24 PHI, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: WSH 22 – 24 PHI
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Washington Commanders · 22
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 164Forecast 118 (18–249) · in range | 31Forecast 18 (1–50) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 20.0% |
| Antonio Williams | 0 | 0 | 4 | 64 | Yes |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 0 | 63Forecast 27 (6–65) · in range | 1 | -7 | YesForecast 28.9% |
| Stefon Diggs | 0 | 0 | 4 | 55 | Yes |
| Rachaad White | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5 | No |
| Chig Okonkwo | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | No |
| Kaytron Allen | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Terry McLaurin | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 4 (1–7) · in range | 14Forecast 43 (10–97) · in range | NoForecast 21.0% |
| John Bates | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 13Forecast 8 (0–39) · in range | NoForecast 9.8% |
| Jaylin Lane | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 4Forecast 6 (0–36) · in range | No |
| Ben SinnottNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 10 (0–43) | —Forecast 7.3% |
| Luke McCaffreyNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 12.7% |
| Marcus MariotaNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 102 (9–241) | —Forecast 9 (0–36) | — | — | — |
| Trent ScottNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 6.6% |
| Treylon BurksNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 19 (0–57) | —Forecast 7.2% |
| Player lines added up | 164 | 132 | 18 | 164 |
25 other Washington Commanders players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Philadelphia Eagles · 24
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 203Forecast 159 (53–275) · in range | 46Forecast 12 (0–42) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 24.7% |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 83Forecast 59 (23–106) · in range | 1Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | -3Forecast 12 (0–46) · outside range | NoForecast 31.9% |
| Dallas Goedert | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–6.1) · in range | 77Forecast 31 (5–76) · outside range | YesForecast 56.3% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 0 | 0 | 2 | 73 | Yes |
| DeVonta Smith | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–7) · in range | 53Forecast 39 (8–88) · in range | NoForecast 18.1% |
| Will Shipley | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | No |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 3Forecast 17 (1–52) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 21.5% |
| E.J. JenkinsNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 17.5% |
| Makai Lemon | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | No |
| Player lines added up | 203 | 136 | 14 | 203 |
22 other Philadelphia Eagles players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commanders32.0% to winPregame projection
19–28
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Philadelphia Eagles65.7% to winPhiladelphia Eagles were the projected winner, 65.7% to win.
About 2% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
PHI +9
8 in 10 outcomes between -8 and +26
Expected total
47
8 in 10 outcomes between 31 and 64
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameWSH 19 — 28 PHIwin chance WSH 32.0% · PHI 65.7%total 47 (31–64)margin +9
WSH
Likely TD scorers
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 28.9%
Terry McLaurin 21.0%
Jayden Daniels 20.0%
Passing
Jayden Daniels 118 pass yds (18–249)
Rushing leaders
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 27 rush yds (6–65)
Jayden Daniels 18 rush yds (1–50)
Receiving leaders
Terry McLaurin 4 rec · 43 yds
Treylon Burks 2 rec · 19 yds
John Bates 1 rec · 8 yds
PHI
Likely TD scorers
Dallas Goedert 56.3%
Saquon Barkley 31.9%
Jalen Hurts 24.7%
Passing
Jalen Hurts 159 pass yds (53–275)
Rushing leaders
Saquon Barkley 59 rush yds (23–106)
Tank Bigsby 17 rush yds (1–52)
Receiving leaders
DeVonta Smith 4 rec · 39 yds
Dallas Goedert 3 rec · 31 yds
Saquon Barkley 1 rec · 12 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
65.7%
PHI to win
Sportsbook win chance
70.0%
PHI to win, read from 11 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-4.3 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
47 vs 44
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 16 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | WSH | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 43 (10–97) | 21.0% |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 39 (8–88) | 18.1% |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | projected active | 3 (1–6.1) | 31 (5–76) | 56.3% |
| Treylon Burks | WSH | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–57) | 7.2% |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–46) | 31.9% |
| John Bates | WSH | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–39) | 9.8% |
| Ben Sinnott | WSH | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–43) | 7.3% |
| Jaylin Lane | WSH | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–36) | — |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 14 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 56.3% Dallas Goedert · PHI
- 31.9% Saquon Barkley · PHI
- 28.9% Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WSH
- 24.7% Jalen Hurts · PHI
- 21.5% Tank Bigsby · PHI
- 21.0% Terry McLaurin · WSH
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 4049dbee4e953ae7
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET