MIA @ LV
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · final
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was MIA 13 – 27 LV, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: MIA 13 – 27 LV
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Miami Dolphins · 13
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 220 | 39 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Caleb Douglas | 0 | 0 | 5 | 94 | No |
| De'Von Achane | 0 | 36Forecast 58 (21–111) · in range | 4Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 30Forecast 24 (1–64) · in range | NoForecast 36.7% |
| Malik Washington | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 53Forecast 18 (0–55) · in range | NoForecast 31.8% |
| Chris Bell | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | No |
| Greg Dulcich | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 18Forecast 24 (0–67) · in range | NoForecast 16.7% |
| Jaylen Wright | 0 | -1Forecast 17 (2–50) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 14.7% |
| Ollie Gordon IINo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 7 (0–31) | — | — | —Forecast 18.5% |
| Player lines added up | 220 | 74 | 15 | 220 |
22 other Miami Dolphins players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Las Vegas Raiders · 27
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 160 | -6 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Ashton Jeanty | 0 | 102Forecast 56 (23–101) · outside range | 6Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 45Forecast 23 (2–62) · in range | YesForecast 39.7% |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 0 | 41 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Michael Mayer | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 2 (0–5) · outside range | 32Forecast 22 (0–62) · in range | NoForecast 10.9% |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 0 | 3 | 27 | No |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 27Forecast 30 (4–74) · in range | NoForecast 20.4% |
| Jack Bech | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 23Forecast 12 (0–46) · in range | Yes |
| Connor Heyward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Aidan O'ConnellNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 79 (3–207) | — | — | — | —Forecast 14.2% |
| Malik Benson | 0 | -8 | 1 | 6 | No |
| Player lines added up | 160 | 130 | 21 | 160 |
24 other Las Vegas Raiders players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Miami Dolphins51.1% to winPregame projection
23–22
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Las Vegas Raiders46.5% to winMiami Dolphins were the projected winner, 51.1% to win.
About 2% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
LV -1
8 in 10 outcomes between -18 and +16
Expected total
45
8 in 10 outcomes between 28 and 62
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameMIA 23 — 22 LVwin chance MIA 51.1% · LV 46.5%total 45 (28–62)margin -1
MIA
Likely TD scorers
De'Von Achane 36.7%
Malik Washington 31.8%
Ollie Gordon II 18.5%
Rushing leaders
De'Von Achane 58 rush yds (21–111)
Jaylen Wright 17 rush yds (2–50)
Receiving leaders
De'Von Achane 3 rec · 24 yds
Malik Washington 2 rec · 18 yds
Greg Dulcich 2 rec · 24 yds
LV
Likely TD scorers
Ashton Jeanty 39.7%
Tre Tucker 20.4%
Aidan O'Connell 14.2%
Passing
Aidan O'Connell 79 pass yds (3–207)
Rushing leaders
Ashton Jeanty 56 rush yds (23–101)
Receiving leaders
Ashton Jeanty 3 rec · 23 yds
Tre Tucker 3 rec · 30 yds
Michael Mayer 2 rec · 22 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
46.5%
LV to win
Sportsbook win chance
59.7%
LV to win, read from 11 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-13.2 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
45 vs 40.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 10 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 23 (2–62) | 39.7% |
| De'Von Achane | MIA | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 24 (1–64) | 36.7% |
| Tre Tucker | LV | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 30 (4–74) | 20.4% |
| Malik Washington | MIA | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–55) | 31.8% |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 24 (0–67) | 16.7% |
| Michael Mayer | LV | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 22 (0–62) | 10.9% |
| Jack Bech | LV | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–46) | — |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 9 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 39.7% Ashton Jeanty · LV
- 36.7% De'Von Achane · MIA
- 31.8% Malik Washington · MIA
- 20.4% Tre Tucker · LV
- 18.5% Ollie Gordon II · MIA
- 16.7% Greg Dulcich · MIA
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 92490de460b212ee
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET