MIA @ LV
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · started
Miami Dolphinsat
Las Vegas RaidersEXPERIMENTAL
Allegiant Stadium
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was MIA 13 – 27 LV, from the Week 1 record.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
MIA 23 — 22 LV
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
MIA 51.1% · LV 46.5%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.5%
Total points (both teams)
45
8 in 10 simulations landed between 28 and 62
LV winning margin
-1
a minus means MIA wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -18 and 16
Model details
From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T18:02:15Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameMIA 23 — 22 LVwin chance MIA 51.1% · LV 46.5%total 45 (28–62)margin -1
MIA
Likely TD scorers
De'Von Achane 36.7%
Malik Washington 31.8%
Ollie Gordon II 18.5%
Rushing leaders
De'Von Achane 58 rush yds (21–111)
Jaylen Wright 17 rush yds (2–50)
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Brady Cook 121.8 pass yds/g at NYJ
Receiving leaders
De'Von Achane 3 rec · 24 yds
Malik Washington 2 rec · 18 yds
Greg Dulcich 2 rec · 24 yds
LV
Likely TD scorers
Ashton Jeanty 39.7%
Tre Tucker 20.4%
Aidan O'Connell 14.2%
Passing
Aidan O'Connell 79 pass yds (3–207)
Rushing leaders
Ashton Jeanty 56 rush yds (23–101)
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Jalen Nailor 1.7 rec · 25.2 yds/g at MIN
Kirk Cousins 172.1 pass yds/g at ATL
Receiving leaders
Ashton Jeanty 3 rec · 23 yds
Tre Tucker 3 rec · 30 yds
Michael Mayer 2 rec · 22 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 11 | 23 | 35 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 10 | 22 | 34 |
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
46.5%
LV to win
Sportsbook win chance
59.7%
LV to win, read from 11 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-13.2 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
45 vs 40.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured 2026-09-13T17:35:06Z — before kickoff.
Player projections · 10 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 23 (2–62) | 39.7% |
| De'Von Achane | MIA | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 24 (1–64) | 36.7% |
| Tre Tucker | LV | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 30 (4–74) | 20.4% |
| Malik Washington | MIA | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–55) | 31.8% |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 24 (0–67) | 16.7% |
| Michael Mayer | LV | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 22 (0–62) | 10.9% |
| Jack Bech | LV | role uncertain | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–46) | — |
New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above
Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.
| Player | Team | Availability | Last club | Per game (prior club) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Nailor WR | LV | active uncertain | MIN · 18g | 1.7 rec · 25.2 yds |
| Kirk Cousins QB | LV | active uncertain | ATL · 10g | 0.7 rush yds · 172.1 pass yds |
| Brady Cook QB | MIA | active uncertain | NYJ · 8g | 7.1 rush yds · 121.8 pass yds |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 9 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 39.7% Ashton Jeanty · LV
- 36.7% De'Von Achane · MIA
- 31.8% Malik Washington · MIA
- 20.4% Tre Tucker · LV
- 18.5% Ollie Gordon II · MIA
- 16.7% Greg Dulcich · MIA
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 92490de460b212ee
- generated
- 2026-09-13T18:02:15Z
- kickoff
- 2026-09-13T20:25Z
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- DET @ BUFThursday, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET
- CAR @ ATLSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ CHISunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- PHI @ TENSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- PIT @ NESunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- GB @ NYJSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ TBSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- NO @ BALSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- CIN @ HOUSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- JAX @ DENSunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
- LV @ LACSunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
- WSH @ DALSunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- SEA @ ARISunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- MIA @ SFSunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- IND @ KCSunday, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET
- NYG @ LARMonday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET