ARI @ LAC
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · final
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was ARI 26 – 14 LAC, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: ARI 26 – 14 LAC
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Arizona Cardinals · 26
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 277Forecast 166 (52–290) · in range | 14Forecast 5 (0–29) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 7.9% |
| Trey McBride | 0 | 0 | 9Forecast 5 (2–9) · in range | 95Forecast 51 (15–104) · in range | YesForecast 29.4% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 0 | 8 | 75 | No |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0 | 61 | 2 | 9 | No |
| Michael Wilson | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 4 (1–7) · in range | 56Forecast 42 (9–95) · in range | NoForecast 38.1% |
| Jeremiyah Love | 0 | 41 | 2 | 9 | Yes |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 33Forecast 26 (0–70) · in range | NoForecast 16.2% |
| Bam KnightNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 20 (3–52) | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 7 (0–35) | —Forecast 22.1% |
| Elijah HigginsNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–4) | —Forecast 11 (0–44) | — |
| Player lines added up | 277 | 116 | 27 | 277 |
23 other Arizona Cardinals players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Los Angeles Chargers · 14
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 209Forecast 162 (53–281) · in range | 29Forecast 21 (2–59) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 15.7% |
| Ladd McConkey | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 82Forecast 27 (2–70) · outside range | YesForecast 29.4% |
| David Njoku | 0 | 0 | 5 | 58 | No |
| Omarion Hampton | 0 | 43Forecast 37 (10–79) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 11 (0–43) · in range | YesForecast 47.1% |
| Oronde Gadsden | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 32Forecast 18 (0–55) · in range | NoForecast 23.9% |
| Tre' Harris | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 20Forecast 13 (0–47) · in range | No |
| Quentin Johnston | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 17Forecast 29 (3–74) · in range | NoForecast 30.4% |
| Keaton Mitchell | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | No |
| KeAndre Lambert-SmithNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 27.2% |
| Kimani VidalNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 30 (8–68) | — | — | —Forecast 23.2% |
| Trey LanceNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 12 (0–41) | — | — | — |
| Player lines added up | 209 | 81 | 17 | 209 |
21 other Los Angeles Chargers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · SoFi Stadium
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Arizona Cardinals29.9% to winPregame projection
18–29
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Los Angeles Chargers68.2% to winLos Angeles Chargers were the projected winner, 68.2% to win.
About 2% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
LAC +10
8 in 10 outcomes between -7 and +27
Expected total
47
8 in 10 outcomes between 30 and 64
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameARI 18 — 29 LACwin chance ARI 29.9% · LAC 68.2%total 47 (30–64)margin +10
ARI
Likely TD scorers
Michael Wilson 38.1%
Trey McBride 29.4%
Bam Knight 22.1%
Passing
Jacoby Brissett 166 pass yds (52–290)
Rushing leaders
Bam Knight 20 rush yds (3–52)
Jacoby Brissett 5 rush yds (0–29)
Receiving leaders
Trey McBride 5 rec · 51 yds
Michael Wilson 4 rec · 42 yds
Marvin Harrison Jr. 2 rec · 26 yds
LAC
Likely TD scorers
Omarion Hampton 47.1%
Quentin Johnston 30.4%
Ladd McConkey 29.4%
Passing
Justin Herbert 162 pass yds (53–281)
Rushing leaders
Omarion Hampton 37 rush yds (10–79)
Kimani Vidal 30 rush yds (8–68)
Receiving leaders
Quentin Johnston 3 rec · 29 yds
Ladd McConkey 3 rec · 27 yds
Oronde Gadsden 2 rec · 18 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
68.2%
LAC to win
Sportsbook win chance
80.0%
LAC to win, read from 11 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-11.8 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
47 vs 47
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 15 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | ARI | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 51 (15–104) | 29.4% |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 42 (9–95) | 38.1% |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 29 (3–74) | 30.4% |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 27 (2–70) | 29.4% |
| Oronde Gadsden | LAC | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 18 (0–55) | 23.9% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 26 (0–70) | 16.2% |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 11 (0–43) | 47.1% |
| Bam Knight | ARI | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–35) | 22.1% |
| Tre' Harris | LAC | 1 (0–4) | 13 (0–47) | — | |
| Elijah Higgins | ARI | 1 (0–4) | 11 (0–44) | — |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 12 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 47.1% Omarion Hampton · LAC
- 38.1% Michael Wilson · ARI
- 30.4% Quentin Johnston · LAC
- 29.4% Trey McBride · ARI
- 29.4% Ladd McConkey · LAC
- 27.2% KeAndre Lambert-Smith · LAC
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 452ac0e5ebee178e
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET