Today· Sep 17Pregame slateSettled· Sep 16

Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · started

Arizona CardinalsatLos Angeles ChargersEXPERIMENTAL

SoFi Stadium

Arizona CardinalsLos Angeles ChargersSaved on this device

Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was ARI 26 – 14 LAC, from the Week 1 record.

Simulation story

5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

ARI @ LAC

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

ARI 18 — 29 LAC

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

ARI 29.9% · LAC 68.2%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.0%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 30 and 64

LAC winning margin

+10

a minus means ARI wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -7 and 27

Model details

From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T18:02:15Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

ARI 18 — 29 LACwin chance ARI 29.9% · LAC 68.2%total 47 (30–64)margin +10

ARI

Likely TD scorers

Michael Wilson 38.1%

Trey McBride 29.4%

Bam Knight 22.1%

Passing

Jacoby Brissett 166 pass yds (52–290)

Rushing leaders

Bam Knight 20 rush yds (3–52)

Jacoby Brissett 5 rush yds (0–29)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Tyler Allgeier 0.8 rec · 5.6 yds/g at ATL

Kendrick Bourne 2.5 rec · 36.7 yds/g at SF

Receiving leaders

Trey McBride 5 rec · 51 yds

Michael Wilson 4 rec · 42 yds

Marvin Harrison Jr. 2 rec · 26 yds

LAC

Likely TD scorers

Omarion Hampton 47.1%

Quentin Johnston 30.4%

Ladd McConkey 29.4%

Passing

Justin Herbert 162 pass yds (53–281)

Rushing leaders

Omarion Hampton 37 rush yds (10–79)

Kimani Vidal 30 rush yds (8–68)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

David Njoku 2.9 rec · 26.1 yds/g at CLE

Theo Wease Jr. 2.7 rec · 40.5 yds/g at MIA

Receiving leaders

Quentin Johnston 3 rec · 29 yds

Ladd McConkey 3 rec · 27 yds

Oronde Gadsden 2 rec · 18 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Arizona Cardinals	6	18	31
Los Angeles Chargers	16	29	41

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

68.2%

LAC to win

Sportsbook win chance

80.0%

LAC to win, read from 11 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-11.8 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

47 vs 47

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.

Prices captured 2026-09-13T17:35:06Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 15 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Trey McBride	ARI	projected active	5 (2–9)	51 (15–104)	29.4%
Michael Wilson	ARI	projected active	4 (1–7)	42 (9–95)	38.1%
Quentin Johnston	LAC	projected active	3 (1–6)	29 (3–74)	30.4%
Ladd McConkey	LAC	projected active	3 (1–6)	27 (2–70)	29.4%
Oronde Gadsden	LAC	projected active	2 (0–4)	18 (0–55)	23.9%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	projected active	2 (0–5)	26 (0–70)	16.2%
Omarion Hampton	LAC	projected active	1 (0–4)	11 (0–43)	47.1%
Bam Knight	ARI	projected active	1 (0–3)	7 (0–35)	22.1%
Tre' Harris	LAC	role uncertain	1 (0–4)	13 (0–47)	—
Elijah Higgins	ARI	role uncertain	1 (0–4)	11 (0–44)	—

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
David Njoku TE	LAC	active uncertain	CLE · 12g	2.9 rec · 26.1 yds
Theo Wease Jr. WR	LAC	active uncertain	MIA · 6g	2.7 rec · 40.5 yds
Tyler Allgeier RB	ARI	active uncertain	ATL · 17g	0.8 rec · 5.6 yds · 30.2 rush yds
Kendrick Bourne WR	ARI	active uncertain	SF · 15g	2.5 rec · 36.7 yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 12 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

47.1% Omarion Hampton · LAC
38.1% Michael Wilson · ARI
30.4% Quentin Johnston · LAC
29.4% Trey McBride · ARI
29.4% Ladd McConkey · LAC
27.2% KeAndre Lambert-Smith · LAC

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 452ac0e5ebee178e
generated: 2026-09-13T18:02:15Z
kickoff: 2026-09-13T20:25Z
state: SETTLED

Player-family model provenance (3 published)

Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.