BAL @ IND
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · final
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was BAL 41 – 23 IND, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: BAL 41 – 23 IND
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Baltimore Ravens · 41
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 324Forecast 160 (40–297) · outside range | 40Forecast 10 (0–39) · outside range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 14.0% |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 144Forecast 57 (21–111) · outside range | 1 | 19 | YesForecast 45.9% |
| Zay Flowers | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 5 (2–9) · in range | 150Forecast 59 (19–124) · outside range | YesForecast 33.7% |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 0 | 1 | 53 | No |
| Mark Andrews | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 49Forecast 26 (2–68) · in range | NoForecast 16.3% |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 18 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 10Forecast 8 (0–38) · in range | NoForecast 26.1% |
| LaJohntay Wester | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | No |
| Matthew Hibner | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | No |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | No |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | No |
| Rasheen Ali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 13.3% |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 11 (0–46) · in range | NoForecast 11.1% |
| Devontez WalkerNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 20.0% |
| Tyler HuntleyNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 68 (0–197) | —Forecast 4 (0–29) | — | — | — |
| Player lines added up | 324 | 202 | 17 | 324 |
20 other Baltimore Ravens players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Indianapolis Colts · 23
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 166Forecast 135 (25–271) · in range | 4Forecast 4 (0–27) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 17.2% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 0 | 98Forecast 65 (27–117) · in range | 3Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 23Forecast 14 (0–49) · in range | YesForecast 37.2% |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 2 (1–5) · in range | 61Forecast 29 (0–81) · in range | NoForecast 35.1% |
| Josh Downs | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 37Forecast 26 (1–69) · in range | NoForecast 23.5% |
| Keenan Allen | 0 | 0 | 6 | 32 | No |
| Tyler Warren | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6.1) · in range | 13Forecast 33 (5–77) · in range | YesForecast 14.0% |
| Seth McGowan | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | No |
| Anthony Richardson Sr.No line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 4 (0–26) | — | — | —Forecast 17.5% |
| DJ GiddensNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 8 (0–34) | — | — | — |
| Mo Alie-CoxNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 6 (0–35) | —Forecast 16.0% |
| Riley LeonardNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 25.0% |
| Player lines added up | 166 | 102 | 19 | 166 |
25 other Indianapolis Colts players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens46.9% to winPregame projection
24–26
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Indianapolis Colts50.1% to winIndianapolis Colts were the projected winner, 50.1% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
IND +1
8 in 10 outcomes between -17 and +18
Expected total
50
8 in 10 outcomes between 33 and 67
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameBAL 24 — 26 INDwin chance BAL 46.9% · IND 50.1%total 50 (33–67)margin +1
BAL
Likely TD scorers
Derrick Henry 45.9%
Zay Flowers 33.7%
Justice Hill 26.1%
Passing
Lamar Jackson 160 pass yds (40–297)
Rushing leaders
Derrick Henry 57 rush yds (21–111)
Lamar Jackson 10 rush yds (0–39)
Receiving leaders
Zay Flowers 5 rec · 59 yds
Mark Andrews 3 rec · 26 yds
Justice Hill 1 rec · 8 yds
IND
Likely TD scorers
Jonathan Taylor 37.2%
Alec Pierce 35.1%
Riley Leonard 25.0%
Passing
Daniel Jones 135 pass yds (25–271)
Rushing leaders
Jonathan Taylor 65 rush yds (27–117)
DJ Giddens 8 rush yds (0–34)
Receiving leaders
Josh Downs 3 rec · 26 yds
Tyler Warren 3 rec · 33 yds
Jonathan Taylor 2 rec · 14 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
50.1%
IND to win
Sportsbook win chance
39.6%
IND to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+10.5 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
50 vs 48
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 18 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | BAL | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 59 (19–124) | 33.7% |
| Josh Downs | IND | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 26 (1–69) | 23.5% |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 26 (2–68) | 16.3% |
| Tyler Warren | IND | projected active | 3 (1–6.1) | 33 (5–77) | 14.0% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 14 (0–49) | 37.2% |
| Alec Pierce | IND | projected active | 2 (1–5) | 29 (0–81) | 35.1% |
| Justice Hill | BAL | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–38) | 26.1% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–35) | 16.0% |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 11 (0–46) | 11.1% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 15 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 45.9% Derrick Henry · BAL
- 37.2% Jonathan Taylor · IND
- 35.1% Alec Pierce · IND
- 33.7% Zay Flowers · BAL
- 26.1% Justice Hill · BAL
- 25.0% Riley Leonard · IND
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 84e2d1f74b570ce9
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET