BAL @ IND
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · started
Baltimore Ravensat
Indianapolis ColtsEXPERIMENTAL
Lucas Oil Stadium
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was BAL 41 – 23 IND, from the Week 1 record.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
BAL 24 — 26 IND
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
BAL 46.9% · IND 50.1%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.0%
Total points (both teams)
50
8 in 10 simulations landed between 33 and 67
IND winning margin
+1
a minus means BAL wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -17 and 18
Model details
From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameBAL 24 — 26 INDwin chance BAL 46.9% · IND 50.1%total 50 (33–67)margin +1
BAL
Likely TD scorers
Derrick Henry 45.9%
Zay Flowers 33.7%
Justice Hill 26.1%
Passing
Lamar Jackson 160 pass yds (40–297)
Rushing leaders
Derrick Henry 57 rush yds (21–111)
Lamar Jackson 10 rush yds (0–39)
Receiving leaders
Zay Flowers 5 rec · 59 yds
Mark Andrews 3 rec · 26 yds
Justice Hill 1 rec · 8 yds
IND
Likely TD scorers
Jonathan Taylor 37.2%
Alec Pierce 35.1%
Riley Leonard 25.0%
Passing
Daniel Jones 135 pass yds (25–271)
Rushing leaders
Jonathan Taylor 65 rush yds (27–117)
DJ Giddens 8 rush yds (0–34) · available role uncertain
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Keenan Allen 4.7 rec · 44.6 yds/g at LAC
Receiving leaders
Josh Downs 3 rec · 26 yds
Tyler Warren 3 rec · 33 yds
Jonathan Taylor 2 rec · 14 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 13 | 24 | 37 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 13 | 26 | 38 |
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
50.1%
IND to win
Sportsbook win chance
39.6%
IND to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+10.5 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
50 vs 48
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z — before kickoff.
Player projections · 18 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | BAL | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 59 (19–124) | 33.7% |
| Josh Downs | IND | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 26 (1–69) | 23.5% |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 26 (2–68) | 16.3% |
| Tyler Warren | IND | projected active | 3 (1–6.1) | 33 (5–77) | 14.0% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 14 (0–49) | 37.2% |
| Alec Pierce | IND | projected active | 2 (1–5) | 29 (0–81) | 35.1% |
| Justice Hill | BAL | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–38) | 26.1% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–35) | 16.0% |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 11 (0–46) | 11.1% |
New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above
Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.
| Player | Team | Availability | Last club | Per game (prior club) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen WR | IND | active uncertain | LAC · 18g | 4.7 rec · 44.6 yds |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 45.9% Derrick Henry · BAL
- 37.2% Jonathan Taylor · IND
- 35.1% Alec Pierce · IND
- 33.7% Zay Flowers · BAL
- 26.1% Justice Hill · BAL
- 25.0% Riley Leonard · IND
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 84e2d1f74b570ce9
- generated
- 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z
- kickoff
- 2026-09-13T17:00Z
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- DET @ BUFThursday, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET
- CAR @ ATLSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ CHISunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- PHI @ TENSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- PIT @ NESunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- GB @ NYJSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ TBSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- NO @ BALSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- CIN @ HOUSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- JAX @ DENSunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
- LV @ LACSunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
- WSH @ DALSunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- SEA @ ARISunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- MIA @ SFSunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- IND @ KCSunday, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET
- NYG @ LARMonday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET