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Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · started

Atlanta FalconsatPittsburgh SteelersEXPERIMENTAL

Acrisure Stadium

Atlanta FalconsPittsburgh SteelersSaved on this device

Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was ATL 13 – 20 PIT, from the Week 1 record.

Simulation story

5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

ATL @ PIT

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

ATL 20 — 27 PIT

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

ATL 38.0% · PIT 59.2%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.8%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 30 and 64

PIT winning margin

a minus means ATL wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -12 and 23

Model details

From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

ATL 20 — 27 PITwin chance ATL 38.0% · PIT 59.2%total 47 (30–64)margin +6

ATL

Likely TD scorers

Bijan Robinson 38.1%

Drake London 36.8%

Kyle Pitts Sr. 20.2%

Rushing leaders

Bijan Robinson 54 rush yds (19–105)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Olamide Zaccheaus 2.5 rec · 22.4 yds/g at CHI

Tua Tagovailoa 171 pass yds/g at MIA

Receiving leaders

Bijan Robinson 4 rec · 34 yds

Drake London 4 rec · 46 yds

Kyle Pitts Sr. 4 rec · 42 yds

PIT

Likely TD scorers

Jaylen Warren 38.2%

Roman Wilson 26.0%

DK Metcalf 23.7%

Passing

Aaron Rodgers 152 pass yds (48–261)

Rushing leaders

Jaylen Warren 50 rush yds (17–97)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Rico Dowdle 2.1 rec · 16.9 yds/g at CAR

Michael Pittman Jr. 4.6 rec · 45.3 yds/g at IND

Receiving leaders

DK Metcalf 3 rec · 34 yds

Pat Freiermuth 2 rec · 15 yds

Jaylen Warren 1 rec · 8 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Atlanta Falcons	8	20	33
Pittsburgh Steelers	14	27	38

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

59.2%

PIT to win

Sportsbook win chance

72.5%

PIT to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-13.3 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

47 vs 41

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.

Prices captured 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 9 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Bijan Robinson	ATL	projected active	4 (1–7)	34 (7–80)	38.1%
Drake London	ATL	projected active	4 (2–8)	46 (12–104)	36.8%
Kyle Pitts Sr.	ATL	projected active	4 (1–8)	42 (10–92)	20.2%
DK Metcalf	PIT	projected active	3 (1–6)	34 (5–85)	23.7%
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	projected active	2 (0–4)	15 (0–51)	15.3%
Jaylen Warren	PIT	projected active	1 (0–3)	8 (0–37)	38.2%
Roman Wilson	PIT	projected active	1 (0–3)	6 (0–36)	26.0%
Darnell Washington	PIT	projected active	1 (0–4)	13 (0–46)	7.4%

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Rico Dowdle RB	PIT	active uncertain	CAR · 20g	2.1 rec · 16.9 yds · 54.7 rush yds
Michael Pittman Jr. WR	PIT	active uncertain	IND · 18g	4.6 rec · 45.3 yds
Olamide Zaccheaus WR	ATL	active uncertain	CHI · 18g	2.5 rec · 22.4 yds
Tua Tagovailoa QB	ATL	out	MIA · 16g	2.7 rush yds · 171 pass yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 9 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

38.2% Jaylen Warren · PIT
38.1% Bijan Robinson · ATL
36.8% Drake London · ATL
26.0% Roman Wilson · PIT
23.7% DK Metcalf · PIT
20.2% Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
simulations: 10,000
input hash: b33a9191f40223ff
generated: 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z
kickoff: 2026-09-13T17:00Z
state: SETTLED

Player-family model provenance (3 published)

Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.