ATL @ PIT
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · final
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was ATL 13 – 20 PIT, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: ATL 13 – 20 PIT
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Atlanta Falcons · 13
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 0 | 83Forecast 54 (19–105) · in range | 8Forecast 4 (1–7) · outside range | 90Forecast 34 (7–80) · outside range | YesForecast 38.1% |
| Cooper Rush | 143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Drake London | 0 | 6 | 2Forecast 4 (2–8) · in range | 29Forecast 46 (12–104) · in range | NoForecast 36.8% |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 0 | 31 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | No |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | No |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 4 (1–8) · outside range | 0Forecast 42 (10–92) · outside range | NoForecast 20.2% |
| Player lines added up | 143 | 120 | 12 | 143 |
28 other Atlanta Falcons players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Pittsburgh Steelers · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 221Forecast 152 (48–261) · in range | -3 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.6% |
| Jaylen Warren | 0 | 46Forecast 50 (17–97) · in range | 5Forecast 1 (0–3) · outside range | 27Forecast 8 (0–37) · in range | NoForecast 38.2% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 0 | 0 | 3 | 58 | No |
| Pat Freiermuth | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 2 (0–4) · outside range | 46Forecast 15 (0–51) · in range | YesForecast 15.3% |
| DK Metcalf | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 40Forecast 34 (5–85) · in range | NoForecast 23.7% |
| Roman Wilson | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 26Forecast 6 (0–36) · in range | NoForecast 26.0% |
| Rico Dowdle | 0 | 15 | 2 | 6 | No |
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 18Forecast 13 (0–46) · in range | NoForecast 7.4% |
| T.J. Watt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Player lines added up | 221 | 58 | 24 | 221 |
23 other Pittsburgh Steelers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta Falcons38.0% to winPregame projection
20–27
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Pittsburgh Steelers59.2% to winPittsburgh Steelers were the projected winner, 59.2% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
PIT +6
8 in 10 outcomes between -12 and +23
Expected total
47
8 in 10 outcomes between 30 and 64
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameATL 20 — 27 PITwin chance ATL 38.0% · PIT 59.2%total 47 (30–64)margin +6
ATL
Likely TD scorers
Bijan Robinson 38.1%
Drake London 36.8%
Kyle Pitts Sr. 20.2%
Rushing leaders
Bijan Robinson 54 rush yds (19–105)
Receiving leaders
Bijan Robinson 4 rec · 34 yds
Drake London 4 rec · 46 yds
Kyle Pitts Sr. 4 rec · 42 yds
PIT
Likely TD scorers
Jaylen Warren 38.2%
Roman Wilson 26.0%
DK Metcalf 23.7%
Passing
Aaron Rodgers 152 pass yds (48–261)
Rushing leaders
Jaylen Warren 50 rush yds (17–97)
Receiving leaders
DK Metcalf 3 rec · 34 yds
Pat Freiermuth 2 rec · 15 yds
Jaylen Warren 1 rec · 8 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
59.2%
PIT to win
Sportsbook win chance
72.5%
PIT to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-13.3 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
47 vs 41
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 9 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 34 (7–80) | 38.1% |
| Drake London | ATL | projected active | 4 (2–8) | 46 (12–104) | 36.8% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | projected active | 4 (1–8) | 42 (10–92) | 20.2% |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 34 (5–85) | 23.7% |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–51) | 15.3% |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–37) | 38.2% |
| Roman Wilson | PIT | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–36) | 26.0% |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 13 (0–46) | 7.4% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 9 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 38.2% Jaylen Warren · PIT
- 38.1% Bijan Robinson · ATL
- 36.8% Drake London · ATL
- 26.0% Roman Wilson · PIT
- 23.7% DK Metcalf · PIT
- 20.2% Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- b33a9191f40223ff
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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