NE @ SEA
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, 2026-09-10. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Wednesday, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET · started
New England Patriotsat
Seattle SeahawksEXPERIMENTAL
Lumen Field
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was NE 10 – 13 SEA, from the Week 1 record.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
NE 20 — 26 SEA
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
NE 35.7% · SEA 61.7%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.6%
Total points (both teams)
46
8 in 10 simulations landed between 29 and 63
SEA winning margin
+6
a minus means NE wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -11 and 24
Model details
From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-09T22:57:31Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameNE 20 — 26 SEAwin chance NE 35.7% · SEA 61.7%total 46 (29–63)margin +6
NE
Likely TD scorers
Rhamondre Stevenson 23.7% · available role uncertain
Hunter Henry 21.5% · available role uncertain
Drake Maye 20.5% · available role uncertain
Passing
Drake Maye 195 pass yds (70–323) · available role uncertain
Rushing leaders
Rhamondre Stevenson 28 rush yds (6–66) · available role uncertain
Drake Maye 15 rush yds (1–47) · available role uncertain
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
A.J. Brown 5.1 rec · 64.3 yds/g at PHI
Romeo Doubs 3.4 rec · 44.7 yds/g at GB
Receiving leaders
Mack Hollins 3 rec · 31 yds · available role uncertain
Rhamondre Stevenson 2 rec · 18 yds · available role uncertain
Hunter Henry 2 rec · 24 yds · available role uncertain
SEA
Likely TD scorers
AJ Barner 35.6% · available role uncertain
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 30.2% · available role uncertain
Tory Horton 26.6% · questionable
Passing
Sam Darnold 181 pass yds (64–305) · available role uncertain
Rushing leaders
Velus Jones Jr. 4 rush yds (0–28) · available role uncertain
Sam Darnold 2 rush yds (0–21) · available role uncertain
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Emanuel Wilson 0.8 rec · 6.5 yds/g at GB
Receiving leaders
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5 rec · 61 yds · available role uncertain
Cooper Kupp 3 rec · 30 yds · available role uncertain
AJ Barner 2 rec · 15 yds · available role uncertain
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 7 | 20 | 32 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14 | 26 | 38 |
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 20 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | role uncertain | 5 (2–9) | 61 (20–124) | 30.2% |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | role uncertain | 3 (1–6) | 30 (4–77) | 16.3% |
| Mack Hollins | NE | role uncertain | 3 (1–6) | 31 (3–80) | 13.7% |
| AJ Barner | SEA | role uncertain | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–52) | 35.6% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | role uncertain | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–55) | 23.7% |
| Hunter Henry | NE | role uncertain | 2 (0–5) | 24 (0–68) | 21.5% |
| Tory Horton | SEA | questionable | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–46) | 26.6% |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | role uncertain | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–47) | 10.0% |
| Elijah Arroyo | SEA | role uncertain | 1 (0–3) | 5 (0–35) | 9.3% |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | role uncertain | 1 (0–3) | 12 (0–45) | — |
New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above
Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.
| Player | Team | Availability | Last club | Per game (prior club) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson RB | SEA | active uncertain | GB · 20g | 0.8 rec · 6.5 yds · 28.5 rush yds |
| A.J. Brown WR | NE | active uncertain | PHI · 16g | 5.1 rec · 64.3 yds |
| Romeo Doubs WR | NE | active uncertain | GB · 19g | 3.4 rec · 44.7 yds |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 14 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 35.6% AJ Barner · SEA · available role uncertain
- 30.2% Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA · available role uncertain
- 26.6% Tory Horton · SEA · questionable
- 23.7% Rhamondre Stevenson · NE · available role uncertain
- 21.5% Hunter Henry · NE · available role uncertain
- 20.5% Drake Maye · NE · available role uncertain
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- f4d6a733c5458b33
- generated
- 2026-09-09T22:57:31Z
- kickoff
- 2026-09-10T00:20Z
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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