NE @ SEA
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, Wed, Sep 9. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Wednesday, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET · final
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was NE 10 – 13 SEA, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: NE 10 – 13 SEA
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
New England Patriots · 10
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 178Forecast 195 (70–323) · in range | 47Forecast 15 (1–47) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 20.5% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 51Forecast 28 (6–66) · in range | 5Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 44Forecast 18 (0–55) · in range | NoForecast 23.7% |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 51Forecast 31 (3–80) · in range | NoForecast 13.7% |
| A.J. Brown | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | No |
| Hunter Henry | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 26Forecast 24 (0–68) · in range | NoForecast 21.5% |
| DeMario Douglas | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 1 (0–4) · outside range | 20Forecast 12 (0–47) · in range | NoForecast 10.0% |
| Corey Kiner | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Lan Larison | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | No |
| Eli Raridon | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Yes |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 9.9% |
| Efton Chism IIINo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 6.0% |
| TreVeyon HendersonNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 14.3% |
| Player lines added up | 178 | 109 | 23 | 178 |
20 other New England Patriots players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Seattle Seahawks · 13
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 187 | 13 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 5 (2–9) · in range | 122Forecast 61 (20–124) · in range | YesForecast 30.2% |
| Jadarian Price | 0 | 52 | 2 | 6 | No |
| Cooper Kupp | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 35Forecast 30 (4–77) · in range | NoForecast 16.3% |
| George Holani | 0 | 29Forecast 1 (0–21) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 12.1% |
| Brady Russell | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | No |
| AJ Barner | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 13Forecast 15 (0–52) · in range | NoForecast 35.6% |
| Sam Darnold | 13Forecast 181 (64–305) · outside range | 0Forecast 2 (0–21) · in range | 0 | 0 | No |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 4Forecast 12 (0–45) · in range | No |
| Emanuel Wilson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Elijah ArroyoNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 5 (0–35) | —Forecast 9.3% |
| Jacardia WrightNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 1 (0–21) | — | — | — |
| Jake BoboNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 13.5% |
| Tory HortonNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–4) | —Forecast 12 (0–46) | —Forecast 26.6% |
| Velus Jones Jr.No line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 4 (0–28) | — | — | — |
| Zach CharbonnetNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 50.7% |
| Player lines added up | 200 | 97 | 17 | 200 |
20 other Seattle Seahawks players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Wednesday, Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots35.7% to winPregame projection
20–26
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Seattle Seahawks61.7% to winSeattle Seahawks were the projected winner, 61.7% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
SEA +6
8 in 10 outcomes between -11 and +24
Expected total
46
8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 63
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameNE 20 — 26 SEAwin chance NE 35.7% · SEA 61.7%total 46 (29–63)margin +6
NE
Likely TD scorers
Rhamondre Stevenson 23.7%
Hunter Henry 21.5%
Drake Maye 20.5%
Passing
Drake Maye 195 pass yds (70–323)
Rushing leaders
Rhamondre Stevenson 28 rush yds (6–66)
Drake Maye 15 rush yds (1–47)
Receiving leaders
Mack Hollins 3 rec · 31 yds
Rhamondre Stevenson 2 rec · 18 yds
Hunter Henry 2 rec · 24 yds
SEA
Likely TD scorers
AJ Barner 35.6%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 30.2%
Cooper Kupp 16.3%
Passing
Sam Darnold 181 pass yds (64–305)
Rushing leaders
Velus Jones Jr. 4 rush yds (0–28)
Sam Darnold 2 rush yds (0–21)
Receiving leaders
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5 rec · 61 yds
Cooper Kupp 3 rec · 30 yds
AJ Barner 2 rec · 15 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 20 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 5 (2–9) | 61 (20–124) | 30.2% | |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | 3 (1–6) | 30 (4–77) | 16.3% | |
| Mack Hollins | NE | 3 (1–6) | 31 (3–80) | 13.7% | |
| AJ Barner | SEA | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–52) | 35.6% | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–55) | 23.7% | |
| Hunter Henry | NE | 2 (0–5) | 24 (0–68) | 21.5% | |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–47) | 10.0% | |
| Elijah Arroyo | SEA | 1 (0–3) | 5 (0–35) | 9.3% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 1 (0–3) | 12 (0–45) | — |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 10 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 35.6% AJ Barner · SEA
- 30.2% Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA
- 23.7% Rhamondre Stevenson · NE
- 21.5% Hunter Henry · NE
- 20.5% Drake Maye · NE
- 16.3% Cooper Kupp · SEA
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- f4d6a733c5458b33
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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