15 MLB games · 477 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
Nationals Park38 leansFinal · graded
NYM@WSH

New York Mets at Washington Nationals
first pitch1:05 PM ET
NYM@WSH
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 32 starts
- Sampletoo small to project (1 games of log data)
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.05 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.62 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 111 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 85 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 15 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 111 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 87 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.37 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.51 across 80 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.95 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.26 across 34 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 85 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 15 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 159 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.51 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.46 across 87 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 80 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 34 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 159 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Yankee Stadium39 leansFinal · graded
BAL@NYY

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
first pitch1:05 PM ET
BAL@NYY
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 31 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 31 starts
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 58 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 136 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 136 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 42 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.19 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 84 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.73 across 127 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.83 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 58 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 127 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.46 across 92 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 42 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 161 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.45 across 20 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 20 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 92 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 84 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 132 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Tropicana Field0 leans
CHC@BOS

Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox
first pitch3:05 PM ET
CHC@BOS
Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox
Game details · probable pitchers
Sutter Health Park37 leansFinal · graded
HOU@ATH

Houston Astros at Athletics
first pitch3:05 PM ET
HOU@ATH
Houston Astros at Athletics
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.5 K across 28 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.32 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.66 across 143 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 16 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.46 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.86 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.52 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.17 across 106 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 16 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 92 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 143 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.92 across 92 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.84 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.31 across 121 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Oracle Park36 leansFinal · graded
LAD@SF

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
first pitch3:05 PM ET
LAD@SF
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 43 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.53 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 43 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 87 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.23 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.16 across 122 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 122 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.26 across 66 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.62 across 32 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.35 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.55 across 87 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.57 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.34 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 5 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 5 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 147 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.45 across 11 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 66 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.35 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 11 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 32 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.05 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 147 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Citizens Bank Park38 leansFinal · graded
TB@PHI

Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies
first pitch3:05 PM ET
TB@PHI
Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.6 K across 30 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 7.0 K across 27 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 141 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 160 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 141 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 143 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 160 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.53 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.39 across 143 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Rogers Centre29 leansFinal · graded
CIN@TOR

Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
first pitch3:07 PM ET
CIN@TOR
Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.6 K across 17 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 1.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.0 K across 11 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.36 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.77 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.25 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.40 across 129 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 15 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 127 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 15 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 128 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 33 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 144 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 79 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 129 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.25 across 40 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.52 across 128 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 154 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Kauffman Stadium38 leansFinal · graded
CLE@KC

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
first pitch3:10 PM ET
CLE@KC
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 1.0 K across 55 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.2 K across 31 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 49 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 81 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 113 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 49 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.06 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 73 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 128 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 128 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.40 across 88 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 113 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 148 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 81 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.25 across 95 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 73 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 88 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 95 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Comerica Park38 leansFinal · graded
PIT@DET

Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
first pitch3:10 PM ET
PIT@DET
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.9 K across 20 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Sampletoo small to project (1 games of log data)
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.17 across 40 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.28 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 108 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 108 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.45 across 96 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 40 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.05 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 113 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.22 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 96 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 113 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 146 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 125 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 19 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 125 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 146 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 19 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Petco Park1 leanFinal · graded
AZ@SD

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
first pitch3:10 PM ET
AZ@SD
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.2 K across 21 starts
T-Mobile Park40 leansFinal · graded
LAA@SEA

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
first pitch3:10 PM ET
LAA@SEA
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.6 K across 13 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.6 K across 13 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.3 K across 31 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.3 K across 31 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.30 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 107 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.28 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.63 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 27 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.86 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 114 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 107 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 62 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 14 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 125 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 14 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.48 across 27 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 125 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 114 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 62 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Target Field38 leansFinal · graded
TEX@MIN

Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
first pitch3:10 PM ET
TEX@MIN
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 1.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.3 K across 33 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 16 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 33 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.97 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 33 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.05 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.31 across 64 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.23 across 13 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.22 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.19 across 94 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 94 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 32 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 100 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 91 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 151 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.28 across 104 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.55 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 91 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.34 across 77 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 77 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 13 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.69 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 32 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 104 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 64 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 100 games
- Sampletoo small to project (3 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (3 games of log data)
Rate Field38 leansFinal · graded
COL@CWS

Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox
first pitch3:10 PM ET
COL@CWS
Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.1 K across 26 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.9 K across 32 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.42 across 141 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.17 across 89 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 14 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 137 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 141 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 26 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 89 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 126 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.69 across 127 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.44 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 111 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 39 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 60 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 137 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 159 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.42 across 111 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.21 across 14 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 26 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 127 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 159 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.31 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 60 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 126 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 39 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
loanDepot park38 leansFinal · graded
ATL@MIA

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
first pitch3:10 PM ET
ATL@MIA
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.1 K across 16 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.4 K across 25 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 70 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 70 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.74 across 92 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 92 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.17 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 135 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.27 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 135 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.26 across 137 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 161 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 32 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.22 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.19 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.22 across 32 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 137 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
American Family Field29 leansFinal · graded
STL@MIL

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
first pitch3:10 PM ET
STL@MIL
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 8.5 K across 29 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.8 K across 28 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.34 across 160 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 131 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 71 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 131 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.48 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 160 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 143 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 143 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 126 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 108 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 66 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 66 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.
