12 MLB games · 454 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
PNC Park38 leansFinal · graded
STL@PIT

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
first pitch12:35 PM ET
STL@PIT
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.5 K across 29 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.2 K across 31 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 110 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.46 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 128 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 147 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.63 across 128 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.08 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 110 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 75 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 135 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.22 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.30 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.53 across 47 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 75 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.49 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 147 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 122 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 47 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 144 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 122 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 64 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 144 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.31 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 135 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 64 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Kauffman Stadium38 leansFinal · graded
CWS@KC

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
first pitch2:10 PM ET
CWS@KC
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.4 K across 14 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.7 K across 7 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 36 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 110 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.95 across 80 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.16 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.69 across 125 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 125 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 152 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 110 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 36 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 88 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.29 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.66 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.70 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 80 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.69 across 88 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 135 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 135 games
Wrigley Field38 leansFinal · graded
MIA@CHC

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
first pitch2:20 PM ET
MIA@CHC
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 2.8 K across 36 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 21 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.55 across 67 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.28 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 9 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 67 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 89 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 89 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.52 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 75 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 132 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.21 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.28 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.58 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 132 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 75 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.42 across 12 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 121 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.42 across 12 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.44
- SeasonSeason average 0.44 across 9 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 140 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Globe Life Field38 leansFinal · graded
NYM@TEX

New York Mets at Texas Rangers
first pitch2:35 PM ET
NYM@TEX
New York Mets at Texas Rangers
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.6 K across 29 starts
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.51 across 136 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.51 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 136 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.20 across 107 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 147 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 136 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 107 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.26 across 61 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.74 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 61 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 97 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.26 across 94 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.97 across 100 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 147 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 97 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 136 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 94 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 18 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 18 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 100 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Coors Field38 leansFinal · graded
AZ@COL

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
first pitch3:10 PM ET
AZ@COL
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.5 K across 31 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.6 K across 23 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.48 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.17 across 23 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.07 across 137 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 137 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 58 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 101 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 138 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.47 across 36 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 101 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 36 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.52 across 58 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.28 across 127 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.70 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 93 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.92 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 23 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 127 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.28 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 152 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Citizens Bank Park38 leansFinal · graded
MIL@PHI

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
first pitch6:05 PM ET
MIL@PHI
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.5 K across 24 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.5 K across 24 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.63 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 114 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.11 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 68 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 117 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 68 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 146 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 144 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.48 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 114 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.02 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 4.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 144 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.35 across 146 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.11 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 106 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.23 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 157 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 152 games
Fenway Park37 leansFinal · graded
CLE@BOS

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
first pitch6:45 PM ET
CLE@BOS
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 27 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.38 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.84 across 61 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 147 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 147 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 61 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 61 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 72 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 96 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 61 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 120 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.97 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.62 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 96 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.53 across 64 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.38 across 86 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.08 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 147 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 64 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 147 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.35 across 54 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Yankee Stadium38 leansFinal · graded
TB@NYY

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
first pitch7:05 PM ET
TB@NYY
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.4 K across 45 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.4 K across 45 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 7.3 K across 32 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 40 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 70 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.19 across 146 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.13 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.08 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 116 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 115 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 70 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.53 across 66 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.32 across 84 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 66 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 109 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 146 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 151 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 40 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.49 across 116 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 115 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 84 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 82 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 130 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 102 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Truist Park38 leansFinal · graded
CIN@ATL

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
first pitch7:15 PM ET
CIN@ATL
Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 26 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 2.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.2 K across 30 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 12 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.36 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.25 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.33 across 12 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 152 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.30 across 135 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 129 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.39 across 127 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 135 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.66 across 129 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.65 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.57 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.37 across 46 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 158 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 127 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 126 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.52 across 126 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 134 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.70 across 46 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Sutter Health Park37 leansFinal · graded
HOU@ATH

Houston Astros at Athletics
first pitch9:40 PM ET
HOU@ATH
Houston Astros at Athletics
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.4 K across 27 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.13 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 146 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 146 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 103 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 131 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.32 across 78 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.20 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 59 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 102 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 113 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.29 across 59 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 151 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 131 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 89 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 140 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.50 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 89 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.34 across 118 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 113 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.45 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.19 across 52 games
T-Mobile Park38 leansFinal · graded
LAA@SEA

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
first pitch9:40 PM ET
LAA@SEA
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.8 K across 29 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.4 K across 19 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 114 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.63 across 76 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 88 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 139 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 142 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 90 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 34 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 148 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 76 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 153 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 105 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.77 across 155 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 114 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 25 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.44 across 18 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.28 across 88 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.27 across 150 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.48 across 25 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 18 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 34 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 123 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 112 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 155 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium38 leansFinal · graded
SD@LAD

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
first pitch10:10 PM ET
SD@LAD
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 8.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 7.2 K across 12 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 7 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 124 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.08 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 39 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.25 across 129 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 149 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 69 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 69 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 129 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 71 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 80 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 119 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 156 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.06 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 150 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 71 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.07 across 44 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 44 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 104 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 104 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 39 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 154 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.36 across 131 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 145 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 131 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 80 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.
