6 MLB games · 227 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
Comerica Park38 leansFinal · graded
LAA@DET

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
first pitch1:10 PM ET
LAA@DET
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.0 K across 11 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Sampletoo small to project (2 games of log data)
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 5 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 5 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 33 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 33 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.02 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.57 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.52 across 33 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.05 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.07 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 41 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.55 across 33 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.92 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 41 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 16 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.44 across 16 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.40 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 55 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (4 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (4 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Rate Field38 leansFinal · graded
MIN@CWS

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
first pitch2:10 PM ET
MIN@CWS
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 2.8 K across 5 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.6 K across 10 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.33
- SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 6 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 14 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.35 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.67
- SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 6 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.47 across 47 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 44 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.77 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.55 across 40 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 29 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 43 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.13 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 14 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 40 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.45 across 33 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 47 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 43 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 44 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 29 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.46 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 33 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 54 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Fenway Park38 leansFinal · graded
ATL@BOS

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
first pitch4:10 PM ET
ATL@BOS
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 7.2 K across 10 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.5 K across 6 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.25 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.56
- SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 9 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.13 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 9 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.33 across 12 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 49 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.42 across 24 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.46 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.11 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 12 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.52 across 46 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.75 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.54 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 24 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 49 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.13 across 52 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 46 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.22
- SeasonSeason average 0.22 across 9 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 28 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.22
- SeasonSeason average 0.22 across 9 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Oriole Park at Camden Yards38 leansFinal · graded
TOR@BAL

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
first pitch6:35 PM ET
TOR@BAL
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.6 K across 9 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.4 K across 10 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.49 across 39 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.02 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.44 across 41 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.02 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.77 across 39 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 46 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 46 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 32 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.44 across 32 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.53 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 41 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.44 across 34 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.06 across 34 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 37 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 38 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 38 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
PNC Park38 leansFinal · graded
CHC@PIT

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
first pitch6:40 PM ET
CHC@PIT
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.0 K across 11 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.9 K across 11 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.02 across 48 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 5 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.37 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.42 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.43 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.40 across 5 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.44 across 34 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 48 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.49 across 45 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.75 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 42 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 45 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 34 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 42 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.95 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.39 across 46 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 52 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 46 games
Globe Life Field37 leansFinal · graded
HOU@TEX

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
first pitch8:05 PM ET
HOU@TEX
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Game details · probable pitchers
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 10 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 10 starts
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.7 K across 7 starts
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.21 across 57 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.83 across 12 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 18 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.33 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.35 across 26 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.44 across 18 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
- SeasonSeason average 2.46 across 56 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.83 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 53 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 55 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 26 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.08 across 12 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.52 across 54 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.63 across 51 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 2.02 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.71 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 57 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 17 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.43 across 23 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 50 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 23 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.63 across 30 games
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 56 games
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.
