SD at COL
San Diego Padres visit Colorado Rockies at Coors Field.
@
SD @ COL
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- away runs
- 5 (2–10)
- home runs
- 5 (1–9)
Forecast frozen at Sep 17, 11:34 AM ET. It does not change during the game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
SD @ COL: 53 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsComplete inputs
Simulated 11:34 AM ET · pregameSan Diego Padresvs
Colorado RockiesProjected scoreSD 6 – 5 COLSD 53% · from 10,000 simulated games
53%Win chance47%
5.6Projected runs5.0
2–10Likely range1–9
60%Sportsbook40%
Close call: the simulated means differ by 0.6 runs and the win probabilities sit near even. Team strength enters only through each club's player projections; no separate home-field advantage term is applied.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
San Diego Padres
COL 5 – SD 5
Median simulation score
MoneylineSD53% simulationsLEAN
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineCOL +1.558% coverMODERATE
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Xander BogaertsSD vs COL
UNDER 1.5 Hits79%7,880 / 10,000 games
Manny MachadoSD vs COL
UNDER 1.5 Hits76%7,600 / 10,000 games
Jackson MerrillSD vs COL
OVER 1.5 Total bases70%7,040 / 10,000 games
Adael AmadorCOL vs SD
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs67%6,740 / 10,000 games
TJ RumfieldCOL vs SD
OVER 1.5 Total bases63%6,250 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
SD 53%47% COL
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
SD wins5,310of 10,000 games
COL wins4,690of 10,000 games
Extra innings830go past nine
Most likely final scores
SD 3 – 4 COL2%
SD 4 – 5 COL2%
SD 5 – 6 COL2%
SD 2 – 3 COL2%
SD 5 – 4 COL2%
SD 4 – 3 COL2%
Expected runs (mean)5.6–5.0SD–COL
SD range2–10p10–p90 runs
COL range1–9p10–p90 runs
Total runs10p10–p90 5–17
Run line (from simulated margins)SD −1.5 covers 42% of the time
Extra innings8% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
SD wins 53% of simulations.
Most common outcome: SD 3 – COL 4 (240 / 10,000 simulations).
26% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Xander Bogaerts UNDER 1.5 Hits — 7,880 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
COL win47%
market40%
Total (median vs line)10
market11
COL −1.5 cover32%
market50%
RelationshipMODEL LOWER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07