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GameTime Picks
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⚾2026-09-17 · PNC ParkMLB · 2026 season Simulation Ready
MIL@PIT

MIL @ PIT

Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh PiratesSaved on this device
Research matchup

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

away runs
4 (1–9)
home runs
3 (0–7)

Forecast frozen at Sep 17, 11:34 AM ET. It does not change during the game.

Simulation completePrecomputed for this game

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today

MIL @ PIT: 45 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.

10,000 game simulationsComplete inputs
Simulated 11:34 AM ET · pregame
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers
vs
Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates
Projected scoreMIL 5 – 3 PITMIL 63% · from 10,000 simulated games
63%Win chance38%
4.7Projected runs3.3
1–9Likely range0–7
56%Sportsbook44%

Across 10,000 simulated games, MIL won 63% of the time — a clear lean in the simulation.

GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Milwaukee Brewers
PIT 3 – MIL 4
Median simulation score
MoneylineMIL63% simulationsSTRONG
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run linePIT +1.552% coverLEAN
Largest simulated player outcomes
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs PIT
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs76%7,570 / 10,000 games
William Contreras
William ContrerasMIL vs PIT
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs71%7,100 / 10,000 games
Joey Ortiz
Joey OrtizMIL vs PIT
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs64%6,380 / 10,000 games
William Contreras
William ContrerasMIL vs PIT
OVER 1.5 Total bases62%6,230 / 10,000 games
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs PIT
OVER 1.5 Total bases61%6,060 / 10,000 games
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Started · not saveable

Simulation story

8 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

MIL at PIT

Milwaukee Brewers visit Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.

model mlb-fullgame-2026.08-pa-v210,000 simulated gamesproduced Sep 17, 11:34 AM ETprices captured Sep 17, 6:09 AM ET
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
MIL 63%37% PIT
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
MIL wins6,250of 10,000 games
PIT wins3,750of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,070go past nine
Most likely final scores
MIL 3 – 2 PIT3%
MIL 3 – 4 PIT3%
MIL 2 – 3 PIT3%
MIL 4 – 3 PIT3%
MIL 3 – 1 PIT2%
MIL 4 – 2 PIT2%
Expected runs (mean)4.7–3.3MIL–PIT
MIL range1–9p10–p90 runs
PIT range0–7p10–p90 runs
Total runs8p10–p90 3–13
Run line (from simulated margins)MIL −1.5 covers 48% of the time
Extra innings11% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story

MIL wins 63% of simulations.

Most common outcome: MIL 3 – PIT 2 (310 / 10,000 simulations).

30% of simulations finish within one run.

Biggest player factor: Brice Turang OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 7,570 / 10,000 simulations.

Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
PIT win38%
market44%
Total (median vs line)8
market9
PIT −1.5 cover22%
market55%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER

The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.

Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07