PHI at NYM
Philadelphia Phillies visit New York Mets at Citi Field.
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PHI @ NYM
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- away runs
- 4 (1–8)
- home runs
- 5 (1–9)
Forecast frozen at Sep 17, 11:34 AM ET. It does not change during the game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
PHI @ NYM: 44 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsComplete inputs
Simulated 11:34 AM ET · pregamePhiladelphia Philliesvs
New York MetsProjected scorePHI 4 – 5 NYMNYM 61% · from 10,000 simulated games
39%Win chance61%
4.0Projected runs4.9
1–8Likely range1–9
45%Sportsbook55%
Across 10,000 simulated games, NYM won 61% of the time — a clear lean in the simulation.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
New York Mets
NYM 5 – PHI 4
Median simulation score
MoneylineNYM61% simulationsSTRONG
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run linePHI +1.557% coverMODERATE
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Brett BatyNYM vs PHI
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs80%7,970 / 10,000 games
A.J. EwingNYM vs PHI
OVER 0.5 Hits79%7,900 / 10,000 games
A.J. EwingNYM vs PHI
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs68%6,830 / 10,000 games
Kyle SchwarberPHI vs NYM
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs63%6,340 / 10,000 games
Jared YoungNYM vs PHI
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs61%6,100 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
PHI 39%61% NYM
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
PHI wins3,870of 10,000 games
NYM wins6,130of 10,000 games
Extra innings930go past nine
Most likely final scores
PHI 2 – 3 NYM3%
PHI 3 – 4 NYM3%
PHI 4 – 5 NYM3%
PHI 3 – 2 NYM2%
PHI 5 – 6 NYM2%
PHI 1 – 2 NYM2%
Expected runs (mean)4.0–4.9PHI–NYM
PHI range1–8p10–p90 runs
NYM range1–9p10–p90 runs
Total runs9p10–p90 4–15
Run line (from simulated margins)NYM −1.5 covers 43% of the time
Extra innings9% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
NYM wins 61% of simulations.
Most common outcome: PHI 2 – NYM 3 (320 / 10,000 simulations).
29% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Brett Baty OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 7,970 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
NYM win61%
market55%
Total (median vs line)9
market8
NYM −1.5 cover43%
market39%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07