ATH at TB
Athletics visit Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
@
ATH @ TB
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- away runs
- 3 (0–7)
- home runs
- 3 (0–7)
Forecast frozen at Sep 17, 11:34 AM ET. It does not change during the game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
ATH @ TB: 39 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsComplete inputs
Simulated 11:34 AM ET · pregameAthleticsvs
Tampa Bay RaysProjected scoreATH 3 – 3 TBTB 51% · from 10,000 simulated games
49%Win chance51%
3.5Projected runs3.4
0–7Likely range0–7
29%Sportsbook71%
Close call: the simulated means differ by 0.1 runs and the win probabilities sit near even. Team strength enters only through each club's player projections; no separate home-field advantage term is applied.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Tampa Bay Rays
TB 3 – ATH 3
Median simulation score
MoneylineTB51% simulationsLEAN
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineATH +1.569% coverSTRONG
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Donovan WaltonATH vs TB
OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs73%7,270 / 10,000 games
Victor Mesa Jr.TB vs ATH
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs68%6,840 / 10,000 games
Shea LangeliersATH vs TB
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs64%6,410 / 10,000 games
Junior CamineroTB vs ATH
OVER 1.5 Total bases64%6,360 / 10,000 games
Jeffrey SpringsATH vs TB
OVER 3.5 Strikeouts63%6,280 / 10,000 games
Started · not saveable
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
ATH 49%51% TB
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
ATH wins4,870of 10,000 games
TB wins5,130of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,220go past nine
Most likely final scores
ATH 2 – 3 TB4%
ATH 1 – 2 TB4%
ATH 3 – 4 TB4%
ATH 3 – 2 TB3%
ATH 0 – 1 TB3%
ATH 2 – 1 TB3%
Expected runs (mean)3.5–3.4ATH–TB
ATH range0–7p10–p90 runs
TB range0–7p10–p90 runs
Total runs6p10–p90 3–12
Run line (from simulated margins)ATH −1.5 covers 34% of the time
Extra innings12% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
TB wins 51% of simulations.
Most common outcome: ATH 2 – TB 3 (440 / 10,000 simulations).
35% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Donovan Walton OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — 7,270 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
TB win51%
market71%
Total (median vs line)6
market7.5
TB −1.5 cover31%
market52%
RelationshipMODEL LOWER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07