DET at CWS
Detroit Tigers visit Chicago White Sox at Rate Field.
@
DET @ CWS
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
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Pregame GameTime · frozen
No GameTime pregame forecast for this game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
DET @ CWS: 42 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsDegraded inputs
Simulated 11:34 AM ET · pregameDetroit Tigersvs
Chicago White SoxProjected scoreDET 5 – 3 CWSDET 68% · from 10,000 simulated games
68%Win chance32%
4.6Projected runs2.7
1–9Likely range0–6
47%Sportsbook53%
Across 10,000 simulated games, DET won 68% of the time — a clear lean in the simulation.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Detroit Tigers
CWS 2 – DET 4
Median simulation score
MoneylineDET68% simulationsSTRONG
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineDET -1.553% coverLEAN
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Riley GreeneDET vs CWS
OVER 0.5 Hits81%8,050 / 10,000 games
Tommy PhamCWS vs DET
UNDER 1.5 Total bases80%7,970 / 10,000 games
Riley GreeneDET vs CWS
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs74%7,390 / 10,000 games
Erick FeddeCWS vs DET
UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts72%7,170 / 10,000 games
Tommy PhamCWS vs DET
UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs71%7,050 / 10,000 games
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
DET 68%32% CWS
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
DET wins6,840of 10,000 games
CWS wins3,160of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,120go past nine
Most likely final scores
DET 2 – 3 CWS3%
DET 2 – 1 CWS3%
DET 3 – 2 CWS3%
DET 1 – 2 CWS3%
DET 3 – 1 CWS3%
DET 4 – 2 CWS3%
Expected runs (mean)4.6–2.7DET–CWS
DET range1–9p10–p90 runs
CWS range0–6p10–p90 runs
Total runs7p10–p90 3–12
Run line (from simulated margins)DET −1.5 covers 53% of the time
Extra innings11% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
DET wins 68% of simulations.
Most common outcome: DET 2 – CWS 3 (340 / 10,000 simulations).
30% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Hits — 8,050 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
CWS win32%
market53%
Total (median vs line)7
market8.5
CWS −1.5 cover17%
market37%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07