LAD at CIN
Los Angeles Dodgers visit Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.
@
LAD @ CIN
Model simulationprecomputedRuns10,000Generated picks8
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before first pitch — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- away runs
- 2 (0–6)
- home runs
- 4 (1–8)
Forecast frozen at Sep 17, 11:34 AM ET. It does not change during the game.
Simulation completePrecomputed for this game
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Model mlb-2026.07Runs 10,000generated today
LAD @ CIN: 44 player-prop markets simulated over 10000 deterministic iterations each.
10,000 game simulationsComplete inputs
Simulated 11:34 AM ET · pregameLos Angeles Dodgersvs
Cincinnati RedsProjected scoreLAD 3 – 4 CINCIN 67% · from 10,000 simulated games
33%Win chance67%
2.9Projected runs4.2
0–6Likely range1–8
60%Sportsbook40%
Across 10,000 simulated games, CIN won 67% of the time — a clear lean in the simulation.
GameTimePicks simulation readfrom 10,000 simulated games · not validated to out-predict the market
Cincinnati Reds
CIN 4 – LAD 2
Median simulation score
MoneylineCIN67% simulationsSTRONG
TotalUnavailablePaused · its live record is below a coin flip
Run lineLAD +1.554% coverLEAN
Largest simulated player outcomes
Direction from simulated probability across 10,000 games · legacy prop engine · not a bet
Elly De La CruzCIN vs LAD
OVER 0.5 Hits79%7,920 / 10,000 games
Elly De La CruzCIN vs LAD
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs76%7,570 / 10,000 games
Juan BritoCIN vs LAD
OVER 0.5 Hits72%7,190 / 10,000 games
Justin WrobleskiLAD vs CIN
UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts70%7,010 / 10,000 games
Juan BritoCIN vs LAD
OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs65%6,460 / 10,000 games
Started · not saveable
Simulation story
8 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Evidence
Win probability · 10,000 simulated games
LAD 33%67% CIN
Simulation outcomes · 10,000 complete games
LAD wins3,290of 10,000 games
CIN wins6,710of 10,000 games
Extra innings1,100go past nine
Most likely final scores
LAD 2 – 3 CIN4%
LAD 1 – 2 CIN4%
LAD 3 – 4 CIN4%
LAD 1 – 3 CIN3%
LAD 2 – 4 CIN3%
LAD 1 – 4 CIN3%
Expected runs (mean)2.9–4.2LAD–CIN
LAD range0–6p10–p90 runs
CIN range1–8p10–p90 runs
Total runs7p10–p90 3–12
Run line (from simulated margins)CIN −1.5 covers 46% of the time
Extra innings11% of games go past nine
Total-runs distribution
04812162021+
Simulation story
CIN wins 67% of simulations.
Most common outcome: LAD 2 – CIN 3 (430 / 10,000 simulations).
32% of simulations finish within one run.
Biggest player factor: Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Hits — 7,920 / 10,000 simulations.
Our simulation
Market snapshot (the book)
CIN win67%
market40%
Total (median vs line)7
market10
CIN −1.5 cover46%
market51%
RelationshipMODEL HIGHER
The market column is the de-vigged sportsbook price, shown for comparison. It is never an input to our simulation, and we do not claim to beat it.
Paper-only · educational · not betting advice · same model output for every user · model mlb-2026.07