Premier League · Clean sheet
152 forecasts published · 152 measured · 0 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Models: epl-model-v1-split-poisson, epl-model-v2-elo-poisson.
Where the model, start and publication time of each forecast come from: 150 from a committed record · 2 from file history · 0 unknown. The CSV names the source of each.
0.203Brier score (n 152), lower is better
0.598log loss, lower is better
28.2% → 29.6%average forecast → how often it happened
0.071calibration error (ECE)
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 7 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 10–20% | 35 | 16.1% | 28.6% |
| 20–30% | 57 | 24.7% | 26.3% |
| 30–40% | 33 | 34.0% | 30.3% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 43.6% | 54.5% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 53.2% | 25.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 72.1% | 0.0% |
| 90–100% | 4 | 95.1% | 75.0% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 152. Download all 152 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25 Sunderland v Leeds United | Sunderland | 25.8% · Sunderland keeps a clean sheet published Oct 25, 11:40 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.550 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Sunderland v Leeds United | Leeds United | 23.7% · Leeds United keeps a clean sheet published Oct 25, 11:40 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.583 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Crystal Palace v Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | 25.2% · Crystal Palace keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.063 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | 31.4% · Liverpool keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.471 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Hull City v Brentford | Hull City | 20.3% · Hull City keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.041 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Manchester United v Bournemouth | Manchester United | 32.0% · Manchester United keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.103 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Hull City v Brentford | Brentford | 30.2% · Brentford keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.091 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion | Brighton & Hove Albion | 19.5% · Brighton & Hove Albion keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.038 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Crystal Palace v Newcastle United | Newcastle United | 24.3% · Newcastle United keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.573 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Manchester United v Bournemouth | Bournemouth | 19.1% · Bournemouth keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.655 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur | Tottenham Hotspur | 15.7% · Tottenham Hotspur keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 12:22 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.710 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur | Chelsea | 38.9% · Chelsea keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 12:22 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.151 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Coventry City v Fulham | Coventry City | 21.6% · Coventry City keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 9:32 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.047 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Arsenal v Everton | Everton | 12.6% · Everton keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 9:32 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.016 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Arsenal v Everton | Arsenal | 48.6% · Arsenal keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 9:32 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.265 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Coventry City v Fulham | Fulham | 28.3% · Fulham keeps a clean sheet published Oct 24, 9:32 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.514 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Aston Villa v Manchester City | Aston Villa | 18.1% · Aston Villa keeps a clean sheet published Oct 23, 7:47 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.033 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Aston Villa v Manchester City | Manchester City | 33.7% · Manchester City keeps a clean sheet published Oct 23, 7:47 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.114 |
| Fri, Oct 23 Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest | Nottingham Forest | 28.6% · Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet published Oct 22, 7:59 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.082 |
| Fri, Oct 23 Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest | Ipswich Town | 21.4% · Ipswich Town keeps a clean sheet published Oct 22, 7:59 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.046 |
| Mon, Oct 19 Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City | Tottenham Hotspur | 33.9% · Tottenham Hotspur keeps a clean sheet published Oct 18, 6:59 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.115 |
| Mon, Oct 19 Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City | Coventry City | 18.0% · Coventry City keeps a clean sheet published Oct 18, 6:59 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.032 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | Arsenal | 35.6% · Arsenal keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.415 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | 17.2% · Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.029 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Bournemouth v Sunderland | Sunderland | 15.9% · Sunderland keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.025 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Leeds United v Manchester United | Manchester United | 25.8% · Manchester United keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.067 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | 40.3% · Brighton & Hove Albion keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.357 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | Crystal Palace | 15.2% · Crystal Palace keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.023 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Bournemouth v Sunderland | Bournemouth | 38.5% · Bournemouth keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.378 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Leeds United v Manchester United | Leeds United | 23.7% · Leeds United keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.056 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Newcastle United v Aston Villa | Aston Villa | 21.5% · Aston Villa keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 12:03 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.616 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Newcastle United v Aston Villa | Newcastle United | 28.5% · Newcastle United keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 12:03 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.081 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Manchester City v Ipswich Town | Manchester City | 72.1% · Manchester City keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.520 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Manchester City v Ipswich Town | Ipswich Town | 8.5% · Ipswich Town keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.007 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Fulham v Hull City | Fulham | 34.9% · Fulham keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.423 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Fulham v Hull City | Hull City | 17.5% · Hull City keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.031 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Brentford v Liverpool | Brentford | 25.9% · Brentford keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.067 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Brentford v Liverpool | Liverpool | 23.6% · Liverpool keeps a clean sheet published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.056 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Everton v Chelsea | Everton | 29.4% · Everton keeps a clean sheet published Oct 16, 7:17 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.086 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Everton v Chelsea | Chelsea | 20.8% · Chelsea keeps a clean sheet published Oct 16, 7:17 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.627 |
| Mon, Oct 12 Coventry City v Newcastle United | Newcastle United | 31.8% · Newcastle United keeps a clean sheet published Oct 11, 8:25 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.101 |
| Mon, Oct 12 Coventry City v Newcastle United | Coventry City | 19.2% · Coventry City keeps a clean sheet published Oct 11, 8:25 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.037 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Liverpool v Manchester City | Liverpool | 21.7% · Liverpool keeps a clean sheet published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.047 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Liverpool v Manchester City | Manchester City | 28.1% · Manchester City keeps a clean sheet published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.517 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | Nottingham Forest | 23.1% · Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.053 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Hull City v Everton | Hull City | 22.4% · Hull City keeps a clean sheet published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.050 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Hull City v Everton | Everton | 27.3% · Everton keeps a clean sheet published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.074 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | 26.5% · Crystal Palace keeps a clean sheet published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.070 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | Tottenham Hotspur | 13.4% · Tottenham Hotspur keeps a clean sheet published Oct 10, 12:08 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.018 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | Manchester United | 45.6% · Manchester United keeps a clean sheet published Oct 10, 12:08 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.208 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Chelsea v Bournemouth | Chelsea | 27.3% · Chelsea keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.074 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Aston Villa v Brentford | Brentford | 21.9% · Brentford keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.048 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Chelsea v Bournemouth | Bournemouth | 22.4% · Bournemouth keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.050 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Ipswich Town v Fulham | Ipswich Town | 22.8% · Ipswich Town keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.052 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion | Sunderland | 20.7% · Sunderland keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.043 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Ipswich Town v Fulham | Fulham | 26.8% · Fulham keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.072 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Aston Villa v Brentford | Aston Villa | 27.9% · Aston Villa keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.078 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion | Brighton & Hove Albion | 29.5% · Brighton & Hove Albion keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.496 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Arsenal v Leeds United | Arsenal | 51.3% · Arsenal keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.264 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Arsenal v Leeds United | Leeds United | 11.9% · Leeds United keeps a clean sheet published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.014 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.