NFL Week 5 · regular season
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15 games
Pre-kickoff forecasts, each frozen at its kickoff. Scores derive from the median total and margin, so they always add up.
| Kickoff (ET) | Matchup | Model winner | Projected score | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET |  TB at DAL | DAL 61.8% | TB 23 — 29 DAL | 52 (35–69) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET |  PHI at JAX | PHI 50.0% | PHI 22 — 21 JAX | 43 (26–60) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET |  CIN at MIA | MIA 56.1% | CIN 21 — 25 MIA | 46 (29–63) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET |  CLE at NYJ | CLE 56.6% | CLE 21 — 20 NYJ | 41 (24–58) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET |  HOU at TEN | HOU 70.3% | HOU 24 — 19 TEN | 43 (26–60) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET |  IND at PIT | PIT 57.5% | IND 21 — 25 PIT | 46 (29–63) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET |  LV at NE | NE 73.0% | LV 16 — 24 NE | 40 (24–57) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET |  MIN at NO | MIN 70.7% | MIN 23 — 17 NO | 40 (24–58) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET |  NYG at WSH | WSH 59.3% | NYG 22 — 27 WSH | 49 (32–66) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET |  CHI at GB | GB 56.5% | CHI 22 — 26 GB | 48 (31–65) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET |  DEN at LAC | DEN 64.1% | DEN 21 — 20 LAC | 41 (24–58) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET |  DET at ARI | DET 62.0% | DET 29 — 25 ARI | 54 (37–71) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET |  SF at SEA | SEA 60.3% | SF 21 — 25 SEA | 46 (29–63) | View game → |
| Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET |  BAL at ATL | BAL 52.4% | BAL 24 — 23 ATL | 47 (30–64) | View game → |
| Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET |  BUF at LAR | LAR 57.4% | BUF 24 — 29 LAR | 53 (36–70) | View game → |
Full week
Weekly top boards
One ranking owner; a top-N table is a maximum, not a quota; a statistic that has not cleared its publication standard says so instead of ranking.
Top 5 · Anytime touchdown
- 1
James Cook IIIMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -120Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks68.2%Game → - 2
Josh AllenMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -120Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks63.3%Game → - 3
Kyren WilliamsMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -165Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks59.3%Game → - 4
Puka NacuaMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -125Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks39.6%Game → - 5
Davante AdamsMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +105Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks37.2%Game →
Sportsbook availability varies by state.
Top 10 · Receptions
- 1Puka NacuaMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings7.5O -101 · U -126Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks7 recRange3–13Game →
- 2Davante AdamsMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings4.5O +104 · U -132Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks5 recRange2–9Game →
- 3
Khalil ShakirMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings4.5O -102 · U -126Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks4 recRange1–9Game → - 4Kyren WilliamsMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings2.5O -144 · U +113Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks3 recRange1–7Game →
- 5
Dalton KincaidMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings4.5O -106 · U -120Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks3 recRange1–7Game → - 6
Keon ColemanMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings3.5O +129 · U -165Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks3 recRange1–6Game → - 7
Tyler HigbeeMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings2.5O -127 · U +100Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks2 recRange0–5Game → - 8
Ty JohnsonMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings2.5O +134 · U -171Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks2 recRange0–5Game → - 9
Colby ParkinsonMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings1.5O -175 · U +136Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks1 recRange0–4Game → - 10James Cook IIIMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings1.5O -142 · U +111Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks1 recRange0–4Game →
Sportsbook availability varies by state.
Top 10 · Rushing yards
Estimate · calibration standard not yet met · Its uncertainty calibration failed the preregistered bar — the range shown may be mis-sized even where the middle is reasonable.
- 1James Cook IIIMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings75.5O -112 · U -112Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks73 ydsestimateRange29–133Game →
- 2Kyren WilliamsMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings69.5O -113 · U -111Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks61 ydsestimateRange23–116Game →
- 3
Blake CorumMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings32.5O -112 · U -112Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks30 ydsestimateRange6–70Game → - 4Josh AllenMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings37.5O -113 · U -111Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks23 ydsestimateRange4–56Game →
- 5
Matthew StaffordMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings1.5O +100 · U -125Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks4 ydsestimateRange0–23Game → - 6
Ronnie RiversMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks4 ydsestimateRange0–27Game → - 7Ty JohnsonMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks1 ydsestimateRange0–19Game →
Sportsbook availability varies by state.
Top 10 · Receiving yards
- 1Puka NacuaMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings94.5O -111 · U -113Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks59 ydsRange18–122Game →
- 2Davante AdamsMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings63.5O -113 · U -111Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks46 ydsRange9–106Game →
- 3Khalil ShakirMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings44.5O -114 · U -110Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks40 ydsRange9–89Game →
- 4Dalton KincaidMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings58.5O -111 · U -113Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks35 ydsRange4–87Game →
- 5Keon ColemanMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings38.5O -114 · U -110Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks31 ydsRange2–83Game →
- 6Kyren WilliamsMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings21.5O -109 · U -115Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks22 ydsRange1–58Game →
- 7Tyler HigbeeMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings23.5O -110 · U -114Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks20 ydsRange0–58Game →
- 8Ty JohnsonMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings10.5O -119 · U -106Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks16 ydsRange0–53Game →
- 9James Cook IIIMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings11.5O -109 · U -115Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks10 ydsRange0–39Game →
- 10
Dawson KnoxMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings10.5O -113 · U -111Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks8 ydsRange0–37Game →
Sportsbook availability varies by state.
Top 10 · Passing yards
Estimate · calibration standard not yet met · The chance of going over a line is not yet well calibrated for this family — read the range, not a precise over/under chance.
- 1Matthew StaffordMatchupLAR vs BUFStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings279.5O -112 · U -112Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks251 ydsestimateRange143–404Game →
- 2Josh AllenMatchupBUF vs LARStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKings244.5O -113 · U -111Captured Sat 1:32 PM ETModelGameTimePicks237 ydsestimateRange129–393Game →
Sportsbook availability varies by state.
Board stamp · frozen full-week edition