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Regular season · week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Denver BroncosLos Angeles ChargersSaved on this device
Research matchup

Indoors — roofed stadium, no weather to report — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Regular season · week 5 · Sunday, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Denver Broncos63.8% to win

Projected score

21–20

the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Los Angeles Chargers33.0% to win

Denver Broncos are the projected winner, 63.8% to win.

Expected margin

LAC -2

8 in 10 outcomes between -19 and +14

Expected total

41

8 in 10 outcomes between 24 and 58

Likeliest exact final

DEN 20–17 LAC

1.0% of outcomes — exact scores are rare

Model status: Under forward evaluation

These forecasts come from models that passed development tests on past seasons and are now being scored on games played after each forecast was frozen. Until enough of those games are graded, every number here is an estimate, not a validated pick, and none of it is a guarantee. Results are published as games are graded. Player results published so far grade the player-board model's own pre-kickoff ranges, each under the model and version that made it. From Week 5 the game pages and Weekly leaders show World Model V2's passing, rushing and receiving yards and receptions instead; those projections are frozen before every kickoff but are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

DEN
21 (64% pregame win chance)
LAC
20 (33% pregame win chance)

Forecast frozen at Oct 10, 2:48 PM ET. It does not change during the game.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

DEN @ LAC

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium.

model nfl-regular-season-public-v110,000 simulated gamesproduced Oct 10, 2:48 PM ET

World Model V2 · 10,000 simulated games

Simulated game outcomes

Each simulated game is complete and consistent: the final score, the scoring plays, both offenses and every player line belong to the same game.

Who won the simulated games

DEN 55.8% · LAC 44.1% · went to overtime 2.9% · still tied after overtime 0.2%

This share is counted from the simulated games, which draw the score from the forecast's margin and total; the headline win chance comes from a separate team rating, so the two differ by 11.0 points for LAC.

LAC margin

median -2 · 8 in 10 between -18 and +15

2
≤-28
2
3
-24
3
5
-18
6
8
-12
8
9
-6
10
6
0
9
8
+6
6
5
+12
3
3
+18
2
1
+24
1
≥+27

Share of simulated games by LAC margin, in 3-point bands; a minus means DEN won.

Total points

median 41 · 8 in 10 between 24 and 58

11
≤24
9
13
30
14
15
40
13
11
50
7
4
60
2
70
≥75

Share of simulated games by combined points, in 5-point bands.

How each team scored, on average

Per gameDENLAC
Points (median, 80% range)21 (9–33)19 (8–31)
Touchdowns2.32.0
Field goals1.81.7
Passing yards219231
Rushing yards103119

Player projections · expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

What each player is projected to do

Passing, rushing and receiving from the simulated games; anytime touchdown from the touchdown model. Players listed as Questionable or Doubtful are marked; players ruled out are not projected.

  1. Justin Herbert
    Justin HerbertQB · LAC vs DEN
    226yds80%: 133–336
    Sportsbook · DraftKings 201.5 · o -112 / u -112
  2. Bo Nix
    Bo NixQB · DEN vs LAC
    215yds80%: 129–313
    Sportsbook · DraftKings 220.5 · o -112 / u -112

Projected = median passing yards across the simulated games; 80% of them fall in the range shown · World Model V2 · as of 2026-10-10 00:30 UTC

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)
  • Jarrett Stidham DEN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
  • Jonah Coleman DEN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
  • Pat Bryant DEN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
  • Trey Lance LAC — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
  • Quentin Johnston LAC — Not playing: Listed Out.
  • Brenen Thompson LAC — Not playing: Listed Out.
  • Theo Wease Jr. LAC — Role not yet observed: no game for LAC yet this season — role at LAC not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for MIA, 2.7 rec · 40.5 rec yds per game.

Simulated game explorer

Five of the simulated games, as they were generated

Game #612 of 10,000 · Middle of the pack

DEN 16–14 LAC DEN win

DEN 16: 1 TD, 3 FG, 1 XP · 21/34 passing for 120 yds · 21 carries for 52 yds

PlayerPassingRushingReceivingTD
Courtland SuttonCourtland Sutton WR1-7
Tyler BadieTyler Badie RB3-191 rec
Marvin Mims Jr.Marvin Mims Jr. WR3-16
Nate AdkinsNate Adkins TE0-0
Jarrett StidhamJarrett Stidham QB6-3
Bo NixBo Nix QB21/34, 1201 pass
Troy FranklinTroy Franklin WR0-0
Evan EngramEvan Engram TE4-21
J.K. DobbinsJ.K. Dobbins RB8-29
RJ HarveyRJ Harvey RB7-192-20
Lil'Jordan HumphreyLil'Jordan Humphrey WR3-18
Jaylen WaddleJaylen Waddle WR5-20

LAC 14: 2 TD, 0 FG, 2 XP · 16/26 passing for 211 yds · 38 carries for 186 yds

PlayerPassingRushingReceivingTD
Justin HerbertJustin Herbert QB16/25, 2115-342 pass
Ladd McConkeyLadd McConkey WR6-68
Kimani VidalKimani Vidal RB2-72-211 rec
Omarion HamptonOmarion Hampton RB9-53
Tre' HarrisTre' Harris WR3-351 rec
Oronde GadsdenOronde Gadsden TE2-43
Trey LanceTrey Lance QB1-1
Alec IngoldAlec Ingold FB1-20
Keaton MitchellKeaton Mitchell RB15-57

A real game from this run, shown as generated. Plays by players outside the named group count in the team line only. Who scored in one game is not a touchdown probability.

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (DEN – LAC)Chance
20–170.97%
17–200.82%
24–270.63%
27–240.61%
20–230.57%
20–240.57%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

MarginThis gameLast 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 311.2%14.2%
Decided by exactly 77.3%8.3%
Decided by exactly 106.0%4.2%
Decided by exactly 145.2%4.4%
Any of the four29.7%31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

DEN touchdowns
2.4
LAC touchdowns
2.3
DEN field goals
1.6
LAC field goals
1.6
Tied after regulation
4.1%
Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

33.0%

LAC to win

Sportsbook win chance

37.4%

LAC to win, read from 5 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-4.4 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

41 vs 42

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.

Prices captured 2026-10-10T18:48:02Z — before kickoff.

Methodology

How these numbers are made

Sources, versions, timestamps and evaluation status
NumberModelVersion / runProduced
Win chance, projected score, margin, totalGame Time Forecastnfl-regular-season-public-v12026-10-10 18:48 UTC
Simulated outcomes, sampled games, passing / rushing / receiving yards, receptionsWorld Model V22.2.0 · run ff79498428dac993 · 10,000 games2026-10-10 00:30 UTC
Anytime touchdownTouchdown model (player board)opportunity model2026-10-10 18:48 UTC

The Game Time Forecast rates both teams from past results and play efficiency and produces the win chance and the score centre. World Model V2 simulates 10,000 complete games: each one draws a final score around that centre, splits it into touchdowns, kicks and safeties, gives each offense its passes and carries, and hands those to the players expected to be active — so in every simulated game the passing yards equal the receivers' yards and every touchdown has a ball carrier or receiver. Player projections are counted from those games. From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Until kickoff a later run may update these numbers when an input changes (each version is kept); at kickoff the last version is frozen.

Inputs as of: forecast 2026-10-10 00:30 UTC · injuries 2026-10-10 00:30 UTC · rosters 2026-10-10 00:30 UTC · player history through the last completed week (2026-week05-20261009T0100Z.json).

Quarterbacks: DEN Bo Nix · LAC Justin Herbert (depth chart; the first quarterback not ruled out throws).

Tested on past seasonsYesplayer receptions, receiving / rushing / passing yards from game worlds: development look PROCEED_TO_FORWARD_SHADOW (2022–2025)
Frozen before kickoff and recordedYesWeek 5 2026 candidates frozen before kickoff (private captures 2026-10-08T18:21Z, T18:27Z)
Graded on games played sinceNot yetno graded forward sample yet
Eligible for picks productsNot yetneeds forward evaluation against the preregistered bars
Promoted as the official forecastNot yetthe published game forecast remains the forecast of record

Results: Player results published so far grade the player-board model's own pre-kickoff ranges, each under the model and version that made it. From Week 5 the game pages and Weekly leaders show World Model V2's passing, rushing and receiving yards and receptions instead; those projections are frozen before every kickoff but are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.

Not published:

  • anytime td: Touchdown scorer probabilities from these worlds failed their evaluation (log loss 0.5138 vs 0.5109 for the red-zone model; calibration error 0.034). Diagnosis: a scorer must touch the ball in the same world, which double-counts opportunity and moves touchdowns from part-time to every-down players. Not published as probabilities; anytime-touchdown chances shown on the site come from the separate touchdown model.
  • passing td: Passing touchdowns are credited to the passer in every world, but no evaluation of passing-touchdown distributions exists. Not published as probabilities.
  • interceptions, sacks, kicking and defensive player stats: Not simulated.
  • First touchdown scorer: needs the order of scoring plays, which the simulated games do not record.

Known limitations:

  • Scores come from the published margin and total heads; they do not see injuries or who plays quarterback.
  • Simulated final scores do not cluster on 3- and 7-point margins the way real NFL scores do, so exact-score frequencies from these games are not published.
  • The win chance here is counted from these simulated games and can differ from the published win chance, which comes from a separate rating.
  • Overtime outcomes are drawn from the 2017–2025 record, not simulated play by play.
  • Player volume does not yet adjust to an opposing defense beyond the team-level volume fit.
  • Red-zone history ends with 2025; 2026 games add no red-zone evidence.
  • Plays by players outside the named active set are counted in team totals only.

Availability used: Quentin Johnston (LAC, Out, not simulated); Ladd McConkey (LAC, Questionable, simulated as playing); Trey Lance (LAC, Doubtful, simulated as playing); Charlie Kolar (LAC, Questionable, simulated as playing); Brenen Thompson (LAC, Out, not simulated).

20,000 simulated team-games checked for consistency, 0 inconsistent.

Simulation V2 · experimental · separate from this forecast

See 10,000 coherent simulated games of this matchup

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score
The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance
The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
80% range
Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points)
The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Under forward evaluation
Published while its record on games played after each forecast was frozen is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance

Where this came from

model
nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations
10,000
input hash
1525d9efb0023b20
generated
2026-10-10T18:48:02Z
kickoff
2026-10-11T20:05Z
state
UPCOMING
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
  • Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
  • Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (586 graded player-games).
  • Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (782 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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