Today · Oct 10 · 19 events Games under way Settled· Oct 7

NFL · DEN @ LAC · Simulation

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

DEN 21 — 20 LAC · win chance DEN 63.8% · LAC 33.0% · total 41

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

53.9%DEN win in the simulated games

45.6%LAC win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

DEN 20 – 20 LACmedian score · averages 21.24 – 19.81

41median total · 80% of games 26–57

DEN by 2median margin · 80% range: DEN by 19 to LAC by 16

44.6%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.0% · 6.9%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: LAC points minus DEN points (below 0 means DEN won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-2). Range shown -51 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (41). Range shown 4 to 96.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
DEN	10	20	34	21.24
LAC	7	20	31	19.81

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	DEN median (80%)	LAC median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	DEN wins it	LAC wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	8 (3–17)	42.2%	38.5%	19.3%
Q2	7 (0–14)	6 (0–14)	12 (3–21)	45.1%	40.6%	14.2%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	7 (0–17)	43.0%	37.5%	19.5%
Q4	6 (0–13)	6 (0–11)	10 (3–20)	43.5%	39.1%	17.4%
1st half	10 (3–20)	10 (3–20)	20 (10–33)	49.3%	43.2%	7.5%
2nd half	10 (3–19)	9 (0–17)	20 (9–31)	49.5%	42.1%	8.4%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	DEN	LAC
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	33 (25–43)	33 (25–43)
Completions	22 (15–29)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	199 (118–290)	195 (115–289)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	26 (18–35)	25 (17–34)
Rushing yards	115 (55–196)	110 (54–189)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
DEN	8.4%	25.0%	29.7%	22.6%	10.5%	3.8%
LAC	11.3%	26.4%	30.5%	20.1%	8.9%	2.9%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

DEN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Bo Nix QB	33 (25–43)	22 (15–29)	199 (118–290)	1.4	0.9

DEN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
J.K. Dobbins RB	11 (7–17)	48 (16–100)	0.4
Bo Nix QB	6 (3–10)	25 (6–64)	0.2
RJ Harvey RB	5 (3–9)	20 (3–56)	0.2
Tyler Badie RB	1 (0–3)	0 (0–15)	0.0

DEN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
RJ Harvey RB	6 (3–9)	4 (2–8)	32 (6–76)	0.2
Jaylen Waddle WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	32 (5–77)	0.3
Courtland Sutton WR	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	24 (1–66)	0.2
Evan Engram TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–44)	0.1
Troy Franklin WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–37)	0.1
Marvin Mims Jr. WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–37)	0.1

LAC passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Justin Herbert QB	33 (25–43)	22 (16–30)	194 (114–287)	1.3	1.0
Tre' Harris WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–1)	0 (0–1)	0.0	0.0

LAC rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Omarion Hampton RB	9 (5–14)	36 (11–84)	0.3
Justin Herbert QB	8 (4–12)	33 (9–78)	0.2
Keaton Mitchell RB	5 (2–8)	16 (2–49)	0.1
Kimani Vidal RB	3 (1–5)	8 (0–33)	0.1

LAC receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Tre' Harris WR	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	27 (3–72)	0.2
Ladd McConkey WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–65)	0.2
David Njoku TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	20 (1–58)	0.2
Oronde Gadsden TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	19 (0–56)	0.2
Keaton Mitchell RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–43)	0.1
Charlie Kolar TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–42)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
RJ Harvey RB	DEN	34.8%	6.4%	10.5%
J.K. Dobbins RB	DEN	34.0%	6.4%	10.2%
Omarion Hampton RB	LAC	30.5%	4.7%	8.4%
Keaton Mitchell RB	LAC	23.5%	2.4%	6.2%
Jaylen Waddle WR	DEN	23.0%	2.6%	6.3%
Courtland Sutton WR	DEN	20.0%	2.0%	5.5%
Justin Herbert QB	LAC	18.6%	1.7%	5.1%
Tre' Harris WR	LAC	17.5%	1.8%	4.6%
Ladd McConkey WR	LAC	16.7%	1.3%	4.4%
Oronde Gadsden TE	LAC	16.1%	1.2%	4.3%
Kimani Vidal RB	LAC	16.0%	1.1%	3.7%
Bo Nix QB	DEN	15.1%	1.0%	3.7%
David Njoku TE	LAC	14.9%	1.0%	3.8%
Evan Engram TE	DEN	12.0%	0.7%	3.0%
Tyler Badie RB	DEN	9.6%	0.4%	2.6%
Charlie Kolar TE	LAC	9.3%	0.4%	2.3%

First touchdown by team: DEN 52.3% · LAC 46.8% · no offensive touchdown 0.8%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: DEN 22 – 20 LAC

By quarter: DEN 6 / 7 / 3 / 6 · LAC 7 / 10 / 3 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DEN–LAC)
1	LAC	68	punt	4	5	0–0
1	DEN	43	fg	7	42	3–0
1	LAC	60	td	7	60	3–7
1	DEN	60	fg	6	17	6–7
1	LAC	54	fg	7	27	6–10
2	DEN	78	td	6	78	13–10
2	LAC	74	punt	4	13	13–10
2	DEN	94	downs	7	88	13–10
2	LAC	94	turnover	3	49	13–10
2	DEN	92	punt	3	2	13–10
2	LAC	31	td	9	31	13–17
2	DEN	65	punt	10	5	13–17
3	LAC	93	fg	12	81	13–20
3	DEN	65	fg	5	46	16–20
3	LAC	69	punt	3	5	16–20
3	DEN	83	punt	3	16	16–20
3	LAC	66	punt	5	6	16–20
4	DEN	79	fg	9	33	19–20
4	LAC	76	punt	3	17	19–20
4	DEN	86	fg	9	79	22–20
4	LAC	74	end half	5	-1	22–20

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: DEN 30 – 27 LAC

By quarter: DEN 14 / 3 / 7 / 6 · LAC 6 / 7 / 0 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DEN–LAC)
1	DEN	72	td	3	72	7–0
1	LAC	77	fg	3	59	7–3
1	DEN	65	td	11	65	14–3
1	LAC	65	punt	3	18	14–3
1	DEN	92	punt	3	3	14–3
1	LAC	59	fg	4	33	14–6
1	DEN	70	fg	10	59	17–6
2	LAC	63	td	16	63	17–13
2	DEN	65	end half	9	-1	17–13
2	LAC	65	punt	10	6	17–13
3	DEN	81	td	14	81	24–13
3	LAC	70	punt	3	3	24–13
3	DEN	74	turnover	5	36	24–13
4	LAC	64	td	5	64	24–20
4	DEN	37	td	15	37	30–20
4	LAC	77	punt	3	43	30–20
4	DEN	99	opp td	8	0	30–27
4	DEN	65	end half	3	61	30–27

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: DEN 14 – 12 LAC

By quarter: DEN 3 / 5 / 6 / 0 · LAC 3 / 0 / 0 / 9

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DEN–LAC)
1	LAC	86	punt	4	23	0–0
1	DEN	31	fg	9	26	3–0
1	LAC	71	fg	8	38	3–3
1	DEN	69	punt	3	23	3–3
1	LAC	99	punt	3	2	3–3
1	DEN	32	fg	12	8	6–3
2	LAC	74	punt	3	2	6–3
2	DEN	66	punt	3	8	6–3
2	LAC	96	safety	1	-4	8–3
2	DEN	57	punt	3	6	8–3
2	LAC	90	punt	3	39	8–3
2	DEN	95	punt	5	52	8–3
2	LAC	99	end half	7	4	8–3
2	DEN	69	fg	10	60	11–3
3	LAC	65	punt	3	4	11–3
3	DEN	88	fg	11	76	14–3
3	LAC	67	turnover	4	17	14–3
3	DEN	50	downs	6	30	14–3
4	LAC	70	downs	5	9	14–3
4	DEN	59	punt	3	19	14–3
4	LAC	87	fg	3	80	14–6
4	DEN	65	turnover	6	21	14–6
4	LAC	69	td	9	69	14–12
4	DEN	71	end half	1	-2	14–12

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-10 00:32 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-11 20:05 UTC
Seed	a6ee8c50 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 41 / margin.median -2 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means LAC 19.55 / DEN 21.42
Availability	injuries@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z+rosters@2026-10-10T00:30:27Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872989:fad7b6628d01d744

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.