Jessie Rosas vs Sean King

Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET · Featherweight · 3 rounds · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Desert Diamond Arena

No model read for this bout. Neither fighter has enough UFC history in our corpus to build a read from.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Jessie Rosas8-1-0

SKSean King6-0-0

8-1-0Record6-0-0

0Tracked bouts0

Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931

Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255

Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d

corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

generated 2026-09-09T17:05:43Z

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

Who the model expects to win

Where these numbers come from

Other bouts on this card