Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos — model read

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Yousri Belgaroui10-3-0

vs

Djorden Santos11-3-0

Model pickYousri Belgaroui · 64%KO / TKO · round 3 or later

10-3-0Record11-3-0

2Tracked bouts3

64%Win chance36%

Yousri Belgaroui wins 100% of tracked bouts to Santos's 33%, finishes 100% of wins, and Santos has been finished in 50% of losses — and the finish profile points to a knockout.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO42.8%

Submission15.4%

Decision41.9%

Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

32

R1

18

R2

50

R3+

Round 1

32.4%

Round 2

18.1%

Round 3 or later

49.6%

Goes the distance

41.9%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Yousri Belgaroui

10-3-0

2-0 in the last 2. 100% of wins come by finish; 0% of fights reach the judges.

+ 2 tracked bouts — too few clear tendencies to call out

− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness

Last 2 tracked

WMansur Abdul-MalikKO / TKO R3

WAzamat BekoevKO / TKO R3

Djorden Santos

11-3-0

1-2 in the last 3. 0% of wins come by finish; 67% of fights reach the judges.

+ 3 tracked bouts — too few clear tendencies to call out

− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness

Last 3 tracked

LBaisangur SusurkaevSubmission R3

WDanny BarlowDecision R3

LOzzy DiazDecision R3

Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931

Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255

Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d

corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

generated 2026-09-09T17:05:43Z

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

Who the model expects to win

How it ends

How far it goes

What the corpus knows about each of them

Where these numbers come from

Other bouts on this card