Bout 11 of 13
Rafa Garcia vs Rongzhu
Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM ET · Lightweight · 3 rounds · Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Desert Diamond Arena
Who the model expects to win
Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.
Rafa Garcia19-4-0
Rongzhu28-6-0The model separates these two by very little — 52% is close to a coin flip, and nothing in either record breaks the tie cleanly.
How it ends
Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.
How far it goes
R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.
“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.
What the corpus knows about each of them
Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.
4-1 in the last 5. 29% of wins come by finish; 73% of fights reach the judges.
3-2 in the last 5. 33% of wins come by finish; 50% of fights reach the judges.
Where these numbers come from
Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
Other bouts on this card
- Jean Silva vs Jose Miguel DelgadoFeatherweight · Jean Silva 67.5%
- Brandon Moreno vs Joseph MoralesFlyweight · Brandon Moreno 59.3%
- Tommy McMillen vs Marwan RahikiFeatherweight · no model read
- Alexa Grasso vs Manon FiorotW Flyweight · Manon Fiorot 56.7%
- Curtis Blaydes vs Waldo Cortes AcostaHeavyweight · Waldo Cortes Acosta 59.4%
- Dan Ige vs David MartinezBantamweight · David Martinez 65.1%
- Tim Elliott vs Édgar CháirezFlyweight · Édgar Cháirez 77.6%
- Muslim Salikhov vs Ignacio BahamondesWelterweight · Ignacio Bahamondes 78.7%
- Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden SantosMiddleweight · Yousri Belgaroui 64%
- Drakkar Klose vs Tommy GanttLightweight · Tommy Gantt 51.9%
- Jessie Rosas vs Sean KingFeatherweight · no model read
- JJ Aldrich vs Regina TarinW Flyweight · Regina Tarin 64.9%