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NFL · SEA @ DEN · Simulation

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos

Simulation · experimental · 10,000 coherent game paths

Simulation V2 · experimental · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a separate, experimental engine, not our main forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game Time Forecast · our main model · separate from this simulation

SEA 19 — 23 DEN · win chance SEA 42.3% · DEN 55.2% · total 42

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

39.5%SEA win in the simulated games

60.1%DEN win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

SEA 19 – 23 DENmedian score · averages 19.29 – 22.87

41median total · 80% of games 27–59

DEN by 4median margin · 80% range: SEA by 14 to DEN by 21

43.8%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.2% · 7.0%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: DEN points minus SEA points (below 0 means SEA won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (4). Range shown -57 to 69.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (41). Range shown 0 to 92.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
SEA	7	19	31	19.29
DEN	10	23	35	22.87

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	SEA median (80%)	DEN median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	SEA wins it	DEN wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	36.5%	44.9%	18.6%
Q2	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	37.5%	49.2%	13.2%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	8 (2–17)	35.4%	44.3%	20.3%
Q4	3 (0–12)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	36.1%	47.0%	16.9%
1st half	10 (2–18)	10 (3–21)	21 (10–33)	39.7%	53.8%	6.6%
2nd half	9 (0–17)	10 (3–20)	20 (9–32)	38.5%	53.0%	8.6%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	SEA	DEN
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	63 (50–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (16–30)	22 (15–29)
Passing yards	204 (121–304)	204 (123–298)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	99 (46–174)	119 (57–200)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
SEA	11.2%	27.2%	31.0%	19.8%	8.3%	2.5%
DEN	6.6%	20.8%	29.2%	25.3%	12.4%	5.7%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

SEA passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Sam Darnold QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–30)	204 (121–304)	1.2	1.0

SEA rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Emanuel Wilson RB	14 (9–21)	53 (18–108)	0.4
Sam Darnold QB	4 (2–7)	13 (1–45)	0.1
George Holani RB	4 (2–8)	13 (1–43)	0.1
Velus Jones Jr. RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–15)	0.0

SEA receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	10 (6–15)	7 (4–11)	68 (23–130)	0.4
AJ Barner TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	18 (0–56)	0.2
Rashid Shaheed WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	16 (0–53)	0.2
Cooper Kupp WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	16 (0–53)	0.1
George Holani RB	2 (1–4)	2 (0–4)	8 (0–38)	0.1
Tory Horton WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–38)	0.1

DEN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Bo Nix QB	33 (24–43)	22 (15–29)	204 (123–298)	1.5	0.8

DEN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
J.K. Dobbins RB	11 (6–16)	44 (15–96)	0.4
Bo Nix QB	6 (3–9)	22 (4–58)	0.1
RJ Harvey RB	4 (2–7)	14 (1–45)	0.1
Jonah Coleman RB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–40)	0.1

DEN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Jaylen Waddle WR	6 (3–9)	4 (1–6)	31 (5–77)	0.3
RJ Harvey RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	23 (2–63)	0.2
Courtland Sutton WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	22 (0–65)	0.2
Evan Engram TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–53)	0.1
Marvin Mims Jr. WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1
Troy Franklin WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–39)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Emanuel Wilson RB	SEA	41.7%	9.6%	12.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB	DEN	35.4%	6.5%	10.2%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	32.4%	5.8%	8.9%
RJ Harvey RB	DEN	29.7%	4.6%	8.3%
Jaylen Waddle WR	DEN	24.5%	3.1%	6.3%
George Holani RB	SEA	20.4%	2.0%	4.9%
Courtland Sutton WR	DEN	20.2%	2.4%	5.7%
Jonah Coleman RB	DEN	16.9%	1.5%	4.3%
Rashid Shaheed WR	SEA	16.2%	1.2%	4.0%
AJ Barner TE	SEA	14.5%	1.1%	3.6%
Evan Engram TE	DEN	14.3%	0.8%	3.5%
Bo Nix QB	DEN	14.1%	0.8%	3.2%
Cooper Kupp WR	SEA	12.6%	0.7%	3.3%
Marvin Mims Jr. WR	DEN	10.1%	0.5%	2.4%
Troy Franklin WR	DEN	9.6%	0.5%	2.1%
Tyler Badie RB	DEN	9.4%	0.4%	2.3%

First touchdown by team: SEA 44.5% · DEN 54.8% · no offensive touchdown 0.7%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed from their seed. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: SEA 19 – 23 DEN

By quarter: SEA 7 / 3 / 6 / 3 · DEN 0 / 14 / 0 / 9

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (SEA–DEN)
1	DEN	75	punt	5	8	0–0
1	SEA	76	td	11	76	7–0
1	DEN	76	td	12	76	7–7
2	SEA	75	punt	3	-1	7–7
2	DEN	70	td	2	70	7–14
2	SEA	80	fg	6	64	10–14
2	DEN	73	punt	4	15	10–14
2	SEA	94	punt	4	3	10–14
2	DEN	66	turnover	6	55	10–14
2	SEA	99	end half	6	47	10–14
2	SEA	69	fg	8	41	13–14
3	DEN	65	punt	5	11	13–14
3	SEA	92	fg	11	91	16–14
3	DEN	79	td	6	79	16–20
4	SEA	74	punt	3	-2	16–20
4	DEN	60	turnover	1	5	16–20
4	SEA	20	fg	10	7	19–20
4	DEN	87	fg	13	66	19–23

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: SEA 27 – 31 DEN

By quarter: SEA 7 / 7 / 6 / 7 · DEN 10 / 14 / 7 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (SEA–DEN)
1	DEN	69	opp td	2	0	7–0
1	DEN	68	fg	8	45	7–3
1	SEA	90	punt	5	14	7–3
1	DEN	53	td	6	53	7–10
1	SEA	75	td	7	75	14–10
2	DEN	65	td	6	65	14–17
2	SEA	75	punt	7	7	14–17
2	DEN	94	td	3	94	14–24
2	SEA	75	punt	3	7	14–24
2	DEN	93	punt	3	10	14–24
2	SEA	37	end half	7	-2	14–24
2	SEA	82	turnover	7	30	14–24
3	DEN	52	punt	3	8	14–24
3	SEA	99	td	13	99	20–24
3	DEN	69	td	3	69	20–31
3	SEA	65	punt	3	7	20–31
3	DEN	50	punt	5	6	20–31
4	SEA	99	punt	3	8	20–31
4	DEN	56	downs	4	28	20–31
4	SEA	82	punt	3	31	20–31
4	DEN	88	punt	3	45	20–31
4	SEA	99	td	5	99	27–31
4	DEN	78	end half	1	-1	27–31

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: SEA 12 – 15 DEN (OT)

By quarter: SEA 3 / 6 / 3 / 0 / OT 0 · DEN 0 / 6 / 0 / 6 / OT 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (SEA–DEN)
1	DEN	70	downs	5	2	0–0
1	SEA	11	fg	9	10	3–0
1	DEN	69	fg	14	47	3–3
2	SEA	69	fg	9	31	6–3
2	DEN	65	punt	5	2	6–3
2	SEA	79	punt	8	5	6–3
2	DEN	66	downs	4	54	6–3
2	SEA	88	fg	14	59	9–3
2	DEN	65	fg	9	51	9–6
2	SEA	65	turnover	6	47	9–6
3	DEN	88	punt	3	1	9–6
3	SEA	45	fg	7	38	12–6
3	DEN	53	turnover	3	52	12–6
3	SEA	91	punt	3	30	12–6
3	DEN	87	punt	7	8	12–6
3	SEA	81	punt	4	1	12–6
3	DEN	56	fg	5	31	12–9
4	SEA	72	punt	6	11	12–9
4	DEN	89	fg	9	67	12–12
4	SEA	72	punt	3	27	12–12
4	DEN	97	punt	6	35	12–12
4	SEA	82	punt	3	53	12–12
4	DEN	99	end half	3	0	12–12
OT	DEN	62	punt	4	-5	12–12
OT	SEA	88	punt	5	-8	12–12
OT	DEN	57	fg	10	41	12–15

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Research only · experimental · not promoted · not our main forecast
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	2026-10-15 23:16 UTC · before kickoff 2026-10-16 00:15 UTC
Seed	a887eabc · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 42 / margin.median 3 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means DEN 22.62 / SEA 19.51
Availability	injuries@2026-10-15T23:14:50Z+rosters@2026-10-15T23:14:50Z
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401872995:f7da5af26da4b93e

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.