NBA · Wed, Oct 28 · tip-off Oct 28, 9:30 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
Final: OKC 96 – 120 DAL
The Official Forecast favoured Oklahoma City Thunder — the side lost.
Official Forecast · frozen before tip-off · shown exactly as frozen
GameTimePicks Official Forecast
- Favoured side
- Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) · Elo team rating
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: OKC 78% · DAL 22%
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 28, 11:57 AM ET
- Withheld
- Team scores, player ranges, prices
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 48 | 31.6 | 3.2 | 9.7 | 1.5 | 45 | 35 | 41.6 |
| Ajay Mitchell · Day-To-Day | 40.9 | 19.9 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 30.9 | 24.6 | 26.3 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 33.1 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 0 | 26.8 | 23 | 15.2 |
| Micah Peavy | 33 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 12.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 |
| Jared McCain | 31.7 | 17.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 22.2 | 20.3 | 19.1 |
| Jaylin Williams | 24.4 | 7 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 8.9 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 12.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.6 |
| Kenrich Williams | 12.4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.9 |
| Alex Caruso | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Chet Holmgren | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Jalen Williams | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Cason Wallace | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Thomas Sorber | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Josh Dix | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Otega Oweh | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Nikola Topic | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Aday Mara | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Bennett Stirtz | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 34.2 | 26.3 | 7.1 | 4 | 1.3 | 37.8 | 33.6 | 30.4 |
| P.J. Washington | 31.6 | 14 | 9.3 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 23.7 | 23.3 | 14.4 |
| Naji Marshall · Day-To-Day | 29.9 | 14.6 | 4 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 21.9 | 18.5 | 17.8 |
| Max Christie | 29.2 | 10.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 12 |
| Moussa Cisse | 28 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 24.9 | 24.6 | 11.6 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 27.4 | 12.1 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 20.1 | 14.4 | 17.9 |
| Daniel Gafford | 20.2 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0 | 17.2 | 16.4 | 11.5 |
| Jett Howard | 13.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 5.6 |
| Marcus Sasser | 13.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 5.8 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 12.9 | 4.1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 |
| Caleb Martin | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Santi Aldama | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Dereck Lively II | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Morez Johnson Jr. | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Tobi Lawal | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Tarik Biberovic | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Sergio de Larrea | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Kyrie Irving | Projection unavailable — not enough recent NBA minutes to project (for example, a returning player) | |||||||
Medians from the frozen player simulation; MIN is expected minutes. PRA, P+R and P+A are medians of the per-draw sums over the same simulated draws, so they are not the sum of the medians beside them. “—” means the figure was not published. A status after a name is the pre-tip injury report.
Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
Frozen before tip-off and shown exactly as frozen. Not a betting recommendation. NBA forecasts are graded after every game. The favoured-side record is published as counts on NBA results; it is not judged before 300 graded games.
Game Simulation archived
Game Simulations are shown on game day only. The Official Forecast stays available, frozen exactly as it was published before tip-off. No Game Simulation is shown on this page.
Technical detailsModel versions, the frozen receipt and the rule behind the favoured side
- Favoured side
- Elo team rating — the published winner side (founder N2) and its Elo-derived game-winner estimate · rule nba-winner-side@1
- Player model
- v0.1 roster-gated player simulation (nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1) — medians of 10000 simulated games
- Model version
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1
- Receipt
- payload hash 3719eb2cc18a1eec0fd173414b7861dd7003a2869d29c4ccce0b0eec9fe0c3d6
- Simulation engine
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0 · 10,000 simulated games