NBA · Wed, Oct 28 · tip-off Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans
Final: DEN 104 – 91 NO
The Official Forecast favoured Denver Nuggets — the side won.
Official Forecast · frozen before tip-off · shown exactly as frozen
GameTimePicks Official Forecast
- Favoured side
- Denver Nuggets (DEN) · Elo team rating
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DEN 65% · NO 35%
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 28, 11:57 AM ET
- Withheld
- Team scores, player ranges, prices
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 32.6 | 19.7 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2 | 28.5 | 23.6 | 24.5 |
| Nikola Jokic | 30.7 | 20.6 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 38.8 | 31.4 | 28 |
| Christian Braun | 26.8 | 7.4 | 3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 11.7 | 10.4 | 8.7 |
| Cameron Johnson · Day-To-Day | 26.6 | 12.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 17.6 | 15.2 | 14.8 |
| Aaron Gordon | 23.8 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 17.7 | 14.6 | 13.2 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 23.1 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 21 | 17.2 | 18.6 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 20.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 15.2 | 9.3 | 12 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 17.5 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 17.3 | 15.9 | 12.6 |
| Cam Whitmore | 14.1 | 7.1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 10 | 9.4 | 7.7 |
| Tyus Jones | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 7 | 5 | 5.4 |
| Zeke Nnaji | 10.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 |
| Alpha Diallo | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Julian Strawther | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| DaRon Holmes II | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Bryce Hopkins | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Spencer Jones | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Trevon Brazile | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 23 | 10.6 | 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 16.3 | 14.6 | 12.4 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 21.3 | 15 | 2.5 | 3 | 1.2 | 20.8 | 17.7 | 18.2 |
| Saddiq Bey | 21.2 | 13.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 2 | 16.9 | 15.7 | 14.3 |
| Julian Reese | 21.2 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 0 | 15 | 13.5 | 8.4 |
| Zion Williamson | 19.7 | 12.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0 | 17.2 | 15.4 | 13.9 |
| Dejounte Murray | 18.8 | 7.9 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 16.4 | 11.9 | 12.4 |
| Derik Queen | 18.4 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 16.5 | 14.4 | 10.7 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 16.6 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 10 |
| Herbert Jones | 16 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 6.4 |
| Jordan Poole · Day-To-Day | 15 | 7.9 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 11.2 | 9 | 9.9 |
| Bryce McGowens | 13.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 6 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 12 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.5 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 11 | 2.7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 |
| Trendon Watford | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Jaron Pierre Jr. | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Malik Dia | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Yves Missi | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| AJ Johnson | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
Medians from the frozen player simulation; MIN is expected minutes. PRA, P+R and P+A are medians of the per-draw sums over the same simulated draws, so they are not the sum of the medians beside them. “—” means the figure was not published. A status after a name is the pre-tip injury report.
Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
Frozen before tip-off and shown exactly as frozen. Not a betting recommendation. NBA forecasts are graded after every game. The favoured-side record is published as counts on NBA results; it is not judged before 300 graded games.
Game Simulation archived
Game Simulations are shown on game day only. The Official Forecast stays available, frozen exactly as it was published before tip-off. No Game Simulation is shown on this page.
Technical detailsModel versions, the frozen receipt and the rule behind the favoured side
- Favoured side
- Elo team rating — the published winner side (founder N2) and its Elo-derived game-winner estimate · rule nba-winner-side@1
- Player model
- v0.1 roster-gated player simulation (nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1) — medians of 10000 simulated games
- Model version
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1
- Receipt
- payload hash 16db95f7ba499f0a60fbc8e722e95e24dada605cf1d6a33f18e88d5a510ca7df
- Simulation engine
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0 · 10,000 simulated games