NBA · Wed, Oct 28 · tip-off Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks
Final: MIA 129 – 117 ATL
The Official Forecast favoured Atlanta Hawks — the side lost.
Official Forecast · frozen before tip-off · shown exactly as frozen
GameTimePicks Official Forecast
- Favoured side
- Atlanta Hawks (ATL) · Elo team rating
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: MIA 34% · ATL 66%
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 28, 11:23 AM ET
- Withheld
- Team scores, player ranges, prices
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 27.3 | 10.8 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 18.4 | 13.3 | 15.9 |
| Bam Adebayo | 27.2 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 27.1 | 23.4 | 18.1 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 25.2 | 11.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 17 | 15.1 | 13.8 |
| Pelle Larsson · Day-To-Day | 25.2 | 11.4 | 3.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 18 | 14.9 | 14.5 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 24.5 | 22.8 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 35.8 | 31.1 | 27.5 |
| Bobby Portis | 20.5 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 17.8 | 16.4 | 12.5 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 19.8 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 1 | 1.3 | 12.1 | 11 | 9.6 |
| Nick Richards | 19 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 14.4 | 14 | 8.1 |
| Klay Thompson | 15.4 | 8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 10.4 | 9 | 9.4 |
| Nikola Jovic | 14.6 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 10 | 8.1 | 7.3 |
| Keshad Johnson | 10.6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 |
| Simone Fontecchio | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Dru Smith | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Myron Gardner | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Vladislav Goldin | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Tre Donaldson | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Ryan Conwell | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 27.6 | 13.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 17.3 | 15.4 | 15.6 |
| Jalen Johnson | 27 | 14.2 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 24.4 | 20.7 | 17.9 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 25.2 | 9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 15.4 | 13.9 | 10.4 |
| CJ McCollum | 24.2 | 14.5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 19.2 | 16.9 | 16.8 |
| Dyson Daniels | 22.8 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 16.5 | 12 | 10.9 |
| Keshon Gilbert | 20 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1 | 13 | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| Jalen Wilson | 18.2 | 7.9 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 10 |
| Luguentz Dort | 16.1 | 3.7 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| Jock Landale | 15 | 6.7 | 3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 11 | 9.7 | 7.9 |
| Asa Newell | 11.2 | 3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 4 |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 10.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| Corey Kispert | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Aaron Wiggins | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| RayJ Dennis | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Mouhamed Gueye | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Henri Veesaar | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Zuby Ejiofor | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Kingston Flemings | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
Medians from the frozen player simulation; MIN is expected minutes. PRA, P+R and P+A are medians of the per-draw sums over the same simulated draws, so they are not the sum of the medians beside them. “—” means the figure was not published. A status after a name is the pre-tip injury report.
Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
Frozen before tip-off and shown exactly as frozen. Not a betting recommendation. NBA forecasts are graded after every game. The favoured-side record is published as counts on NBA results; it is not judged before 300 graded games.
Game Simulation archived
Game Simulations are shown on game day only. The Official Forecast stays available, frozen exactly as it was published before tip-off. No Game Simulation is shown on this page.
Technical detailsModel versions, the frozen receipt and the rule behind the favoured side
- Favoured side
- Elo team rating — the published winner side (founder N2) and its Elo-derived game-winner estimate · rule nba-winner-side@1
- Player model
- v0.1 roster-gated player simulation (nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1) — medians of 10000 simulated games
- Model version
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1
- Receipt
- payload hash 97f9e0ad2ee1802965e1e0728fd4db413eb88b40ac42af8ca6fc3a760b7bd189
- Simulation engine
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0 · 10,000 simulated games