NBA · Mon, Oct 26 · tip-off Oct 26, 7:30 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Final: DAL 113 – 109 MIA
The Official Forecast favoured Miami Heat — the side lost.
Official Forecast · frozen before tip-off · shown exactly as frozen
GameTimePicks Official Forecast
- Favoured side
- Miami Heat (MIA) · Elo team rating
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: DAL 27% · MIA 73%
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 26, 12:05 PM ET
- Withheld
- Team scores, player ranges, prices
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 43.1 | 18.9 | 12.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 32.1 | 31.5 | 19.6 |
| Max Christie | 39.8 | 13.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 19.9 | 17.6 | 16.2 |
| Moussa Cisse | 38.2 | 15.3 | 17.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 34.1 | 33.6 | 15.8 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 37.4 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 27.3 | 19.5 | 24.2 |
| Daniel Gafford | 27.6 | 14.3 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 | 23.4 | 22.2 | 15.5 |
| Jett Howard | 18.3 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 7.4 |
| Marcus Sasser | 17.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.8 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 8.6 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 17.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 6.7 |
| Caleb Martin | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Naji Marshall | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Santi Aldama | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Dereck Lively II | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Morez Johnson Jr. | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Cooper Flagg | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Tobi Lawal | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Tarik Biberovic | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Sergio de Larrea | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Kyrie Irving | Projection unavailable — not enough recent NBA minutes to project (for example, a returning player) | |||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell | 26.2 | 10.5 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 17.9 | 12.9 | 15.4 |
| Bam Adebayo | 26.1 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 26.3 | 22.6 | 17.5 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 24.2 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 16.7 | 14.7 | 13.5 |
| Pelle Larsson | 24.2 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 17.3 | 14.4 | 13.9 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 23.5 | 21.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 34.2 | 29.8 | 26.3 |
| Bobby Portis | 19.7 | 10.7 | 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 17.2 | 15.9 | 12 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 19 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1 | 1.3 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 9.1 |
| Nick Richards | 18.2 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 |
| Klay Thompson | 14.8 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 9.2 |
| Nikola Jovic | 14.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| Keshad Johnson | 10.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 |
| Simone Fontecchio | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Dru Smith | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Myron Gardner | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Vladislav Goldin | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Tre Donaldson | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Ryan Conwell | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
Medians from the frozen player simulation; MIN is expected minutes. PRA, P+R and P+A are medians of the per-draw sums over the same simulated draws, so they are not the sum of the medians beside them. “—” means the figure was not published. A status after a name is the pre-tip injury report.
Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
Frozen before tip-off and shown exactly as frozen. Not a betting recommendation. NBA forecasts are graded after every game. The favoured-side record is published as counts on NBA results; it is not judged before 300 graded games.
Game Simulation archived
Game Simulations are shown on game day only. The Official Forecast stays available, frozen exactly as it was published before tip-off. No Game Simulation is shown on this page.
Technical detailsModel versions, the frozen receipt and the rule behind the favoured side
- Favoured side
- Elo team rating — the published winner side (founder N2) and its Elo-derived game-winner estimate · rule nba-winner-side@1
- Player model
- v0.1 roster-gated player simulation (nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1) — medians of 10000 simulated games
- Model version
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1
- Receipt
- payload hash 915a1e53d035bffd1559f332f39335f13706e1c4117fc30ab00ef3964fc6e36b
- Simulation engine
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0 · 10,000 simulated games