NBA · Sat, Oct 24 · tip-off Oct 24, 8:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Final: SA 122 – 106 DAL
The Official Forecast favoured San Antonio Spurs — the side won.
Official Forecast · frozen before tip-off · shown exactly as frozen
GameTimePicks Official Forecast
- Favoured side
- San Antonio Spurs (SA) · Elo team rating
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: SA 74% · DAL 26%
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 24, 9:16 AM ET
- Withheld
- Team scores, player ranges, prices
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 36.7 | 24.7 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 2 | 36.1 | 33.6 | 27.3 |
| Devin Vassell | 34.5 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 20.5 | 17.8 | 14.9 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 33.1 | 11.6 | 4 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 21.5 | 15.6 | 17.5 |
| Stephon Castle | 31.5 | 15.1 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 25.3 | 20 | 20.4 |
| Julian Champagnie | 30.6 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 18.4 | 16.7 | 13 |
| Dylan Harper | 26 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 21.4 | 18.5 | 15.6 |
| Keldon Johnson | 15.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 10 | 9.4 | 7.2 |
| Luke Kornet | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Jordan McLaughlin | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| David Jones Garcia | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Carter Bryant | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Jayden Quaintance | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Maliq Brown | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Tarris Reed Jr. | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Tobias Harris | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Harrison Barnes | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington | 30.1 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 22.4 | 22 | 13.7 |
| Santi Aldama · Day-To-Day | 28.6 | 14 | 6.7 | 3 | 1.6 | 23.8 | 20.8 | 17 |
| Naji Marshall | 28.5 | 13.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 20.6 | 17.5 | 16.8 |
| Max Christie | 27.8 | 9.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 11.5 |
| Moussa Cisse | 26.7 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 0.2 | 0 | 24 | 23.7 | 11.1 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 26.1 | 11.6 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 19.1 | 13.8 | 16.9 |
| Daniel Gafford | 19.3 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 0 | 16.5 | 15.7 | 10.9 |
| Caleb Martin · Day-To-Day | 15.2 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 4.8 |
| Jett Howard · Day-To-Day | 12.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 7 | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| Marcus Sasser | 12.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 5.6 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 12.3 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 |
| Dereck Lively II | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Morez Johnson Jr. | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Cooper Flagg | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Tobi Lawal | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Tarik Biberovic | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Sergio de Larrea | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Kyrie Irving | Projection unavailable — not enough recent NBA minutes to project (for example, a returning player) | |||||||
Medians from the frozen player simulation; MIN is expected minutes. PRA, P+R and P+A are medians of the per-draw sums over the same simulated draws, so they are not the sum of the medians beside them. “—” means the figure was not published. A status after a name is the pre-tip injury report.
Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
Frozen before tip-off and shown exactly as frozen. Not a betting recommendation. NBA forecasts are graded after every game. The favoured-side record is published as counts on NBA results; it is not judged before 300 graded games.
Game Simulation archived
Game Simulations are shown on game day only. The Official Forecast stays available, frozen exactly as it was published before tip-off. No Game Simulation is shown on this page.
Technical detailsModel versions, the frozen receipt and the rule behind the favoured side
- Favoured side
- Elo team rating — the published winner side (founder N2) and its Elo-derived game-winner estimate · rule nba-winner-side@1
- Player model
- v0.1 roster-gated player simulation (nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1) — medians of 10000 simulated games
- Model version
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1
- Receipt
- payload hash b12877da7e39bcb8707e5d2a1838389984b5f51d38a10ffedb240591587ba7fe
- Simulation engine
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0 · 10,000 simulated games