Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
Default view · Official projected game · Official Forecast · frozen before tip-off · the same on every page
GameTimePicks Official Forecast
- Favoured side
- Houston Rockets (HOU) · Elo rating
- Game winner
- Elo team rating
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 30, 11:50 AM ET · locked at tip-off, Oct 30, 8:00 PM ET
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: HOU 63% · DAL 37% Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
- Projected score
- Not published. The Official Forecast does not include NBA team scores, so no projected score is shown.
- Withheld
- Team scores, margin and total, player ranges, prices · Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
Technical details
- Game winner model
- nba-winner-side@1:elo(nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1)
- Player model
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1@nba-preseason-experimental-v0
- Snapshot
- b5b6be65d2d2f17f176db913a03e09d41d0766fd31b70ccabedb868de0a916fd
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 39.8 | 20.1 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 32.5 | 27.1 | 25.5 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 37.7 | 16.5 | 7 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 24.9 | 23.5 | 18 |
| Kevin Durant | 35.8 | 25.3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 35.3 | 30.9 | 29.7 |
| Alperen Sengun | 33.3 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 30.8 | 26 | 21.4 |
| Tari Eason | 28 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 19 | 17.4 | 13.1 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 19.2 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 0 | 20.8 | 19.1 | 12 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 18.3 | 6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 8.1 |
| Marcus Smart | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Fred VanVleet | Projection unavailable — not enough recent NBA minutes to project (for example, a returning player) | |||||||
| Steven Adams | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Clint Capela | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Jae'Sean Tate | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Isaiah Crawford | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Quadir Copeland | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Reed Sheppard | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Julian Phillips | Projection unavailable — expected to play too few minutes for a published projection | |||||||
| Bruce Thornton | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA | P+R | P+A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 32.1 | 24.4 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 35.2 | 31.3 | 28.4 |
| P.J. Washington | 29.6 | 13 | 8.6 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 22.1 | 21.6 | 13.4 |
| Naji Marshall | 28.1 | 13.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 20.5 | 17.4 | 16.6 |
| Max Christie | 27.4 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 11.2 |
| Moussa Cisse | 26.3 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 0.2 | 0 | 23.6 | 23.4 | 10.9 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 25.7 | 11.3 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 18.7 | 13.5 | 16.5 |
| Daniel Gafford | 18.9 | 10 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0 | 16.3 | 15.5 | 10.8 |
| Caleb Martin | 15 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 4.8 |
| Jett Howard | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.2 |
| Marcus Sasser | 12.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 5.7 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 12.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 |
| Santi Aldama | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Dereck Lively II | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Morez Johnson Jr. | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Tobi Lawal | Projection unavailable — a rookie with no NBA minutes in the data yet | |||||||
| Tarik Biberovic | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Sergio de Larrea | Projection unavailable — ruled out on the pre-tip injury report | |||||||
| Kyrie Irving | Projection unavailable — not enough recent NBA minutes to project (for example, a returning player) | |||||||
Medians from the frozen player simulation; MIN is expected minutes. PRA, P+R and P+A are medians of the per-draw sums over the same simulated draws, so they are not the sum of the medians beside them. Each figure is that player's own median, published as is. Player medians are not adjusted to add up to a team score. “—” means the figure was not published for that player. Not betting recommendations.
Model vs. sportsbook line · NBA player props
80 of 126 projections have a qualified sportsbook line. Direction not shown: 11.
This game: 69 lines · ▲ 40 ▼ 27 = 2 · View lines →
- OVER means our model's projection is above the sportsbook's line.
- UNDER means our model's projection is below the sportsbook's line.
- NEUTRAL means our model's projection is the same as the sportsbook's line.
- Difference is our projection minus the line: 36.0 against 29.5 is +6.5. A gap smaller than 0.05 shows as +0.0 or −0.0 and keeps its direction.
- A line older than 6 hours, taken after the game started, not matched to the player and game, suspended, or for a statistic we do not project is shown with the reason and is not compared.
- Over and Under prices are the sportsbook's American odds. A dash means the sportsbook did not post that price; it is never a zero.
- Comparison not shown means the model and the sportsbook line are both shown without a direction, because that statistic's forecast has not yet met our calibration standard.
- It is a comparison, not a bet recommendation or a probability, and it guarantees nothing.
Sportsbook availability varies by state.
What each part of this page is
- Official Forecast — this section: frozen before tip-off. It is what GameTimePicks forecasts.
- Game Simulation — the simulated scenarios below (playback and What-if): one possible game from the NBA possession engine, hypothetical. Its score and box score are not a forecast and never change this section.
- Real Result — the official final, recorded after the game. NBA Historical Results →
Simulated scenario (hypothetical) · not the Official Forecast
Simulated scenarios: playback and What-if
One stored game of the NBA possession engine at a time, with its own box score that adds up to its own final. A scenario may differ from the Official Forecast above and never changes it.
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks · simulated
American Airlines Center · Simulated game · inputs frozen before tip · About this simulation
Official Forecast
Frozen before tip-off. It is the same for every run and every What-if Scenario; no run below changes it.
- Favoured side
- Houston Rockets (HOU, away) · Elo rating
- Win probability
- Elo-derived game-winner estimate: HOU 63% · DAL 37%
- Projected score
- Withheld · Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
- Margin and total
- Withheld · Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
- Player ranges
- Withheld · Medians only: the model's ranges have not yet shown reliable coverage. · medians only
- Odds and picks
- Withheld · No sportsbook prices, lines, edges, picks or rankings: there is no authorized NBA price, and these figures are not betting recommendations.
- Game winner
- Elo team rating
- Player statistics
- GameTimePicks player model · medians
- Frozen
- Oct 30, 11:50 AM ET
- Locks at tip
- Oct 30, 8:00 PM ET
Predicted Player Statistics (Official Forecast): the Official projected game (Default view) →
Technical details
- Game winner model
- nba-winner-side@1:elo(nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1)
- Player model
- nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1@nba-preseason-experimental-v0
- Snapshot
- b5b6be65d2d2f17f176db913a03e09d41d0766fd31b70ccabedb868de0a916fd
- Frozen
- 2026-10-30 15:50 UTC
- Locks at tip
- 2026-10-31 00:00 UTC
Simulation outcome · this run
Simulated scenario (hypothetical) · central · run 268 · the stored run nearest the middle of this engine's own simulated games. It is chosen without looking at the Official Forecast, so either side may win it; it is one simulated game, not the Official Forecast, and changes none of its numbers
Chosen by rule, not by hand: the stored run nearest the middle of this engine's own simulated games: of the runs that ended in regulation, the final closest to the pool's median home and median away points (in pool standard deviations); ties → lowest run number. The Official Forecast is not consulted, so either side may win it.
In this engine's 1,000 simulated games, DAL won 30.0% and HOU 70.0% (the engine's own share, not the Official Forecast).
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
| DAL | 0 | — | — | — | 0 |
The outcome fills in as the game plays; skip to the final at any time.
HOU · on court
- Jabari Smith Jr.
- Amen Thompson
- Kevin Durant
- Tari Eason
- Alperen Sengun
DAL · on court
- Cooper Flagg
- Max Christie
- P.J. Washington
- Kyrie Irving
- Naji Marshall
Decorative court · player positions and shot locations are not modelled
Keys: Space or K play / pause · , and . previous / next play · [ and ] previous / next quarter · Home restart · End final
Play-by-play · simulated
- Q1 12:00Jump ball · DAL win the tip · simulatedHOU 0–0 DAL
- Q1 12:00Start of the 1st quarter · simulatedHOU 0–0 DAL
Team scoring progression
This simulation's box score · player contributions and box score of this run
One simulated game, added up from its own event log. It is not the Official Forecast; the Predicted Player Statistics (Official Forecast) are in the Official Forecast section and never change.
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | 3PA | FGM | FGA | FTM | FTA | STL | BLK | TOV | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Durant | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alperen Sengun | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred VanVleet | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tari Eason | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clint Capela | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Phillips | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crawford | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruce Thornton | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team rebounds (not credited to a player): 0. REB = offensive + defensive player rebounds.
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | 3PA | FGM | FGA | FTM | FTA | STL | BLK | TOV | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Washington | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Naji Marshall | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Christie | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyrie Irving | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Gafford | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Martin | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Sasser | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moussa Cisse | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jett Howard | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tobi Lawal | 0:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team rebounds (not credited to a player): 0. REB = offensive + defensive player rebounds.
Reconciliation
Every check passes for this run:
- ✓ home: player points = team points = final = quarter sum · 96 / 96 / 96 / 96
- ✓ home: makes ≤ attempts, 3PT and FT reconcile (PTS = 2·FGM + 3PM + FTM)
- ✓ home: minutes sum to 240 · 240.00 min
- ✓ home: no impossible values (non-negative integers, REB = OREB + DREB, AST ≤ FGM, STL ≤ opp. TOV, BLK ≤ opp. missed FGA)
- ✓ away: player points = team points = final = quarter sum · 109 / 109 / 109 / 109
- ✓ away: makes ≤ attempts, 3PT and FT reconcile (PTS = 2·FGM + 3PM + FTM)
- ✓ away: minutes sum to 240 · 240.00 min
- ✓ away: no impossible values (non-negative integers, REB = OREB + DREB, AST ≤ FGM, STL ≤ opp. TOV, BLK ≤ opp. missed FGA)
- ✓ untied final; overtime only after a tie · 96–109, OT 0
This simulation vs the Predicted Player Statistics (Official Forecast)
| Player | MIN run / official | PTS run / official | REB run / official | AST run / official | 3PM run / official |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Bogdanovic HOU | 18.5 / 18.3 | 6 / 6.0 | 2 / 2.1 | 2 / 1.8 | 0 / 1.1 |
| Caleb Martin DAL | 13.6 / 15.0 | 4 / 3.3 | 0 / 2.1 | 1 / 1.1 | 0 / 0.2 |
| Kevin Durant HOU | 29.3 / 35.8 | 22 / 25.3 | 6 / 5.6 | 0 / 4.4 | 3 / 2.1 |
| Daniel Gafford DAL | 20.0 / 18.9 | 8 / 10.0 | 3 / 5.3 | 0 / 0.7 | 0 / 0.0 |
| P.J. Washington DAL | 27.3 / 29.6 | 8 / 13.0 | 4 / 8.6 | 2 / 0.3 | 0 / 1.7 |
| Naji Marshall DAL | 21.4 / 28.1 | 4 / 13.5 | 2 / 3.8 | 1 / 2.9 | 0 / 0.4 |
| Marcus Sasser DAL | 14.4 / 12.3 | 7 / 2.5 | 3 / 0.8 | 0 / 0.0 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Max Christie DAL | 34.5 / 27.4 | 10 / 9.7 | 2 / 2.5 | 4 / 1.5 | 1 / 2.0 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. HOU | 37.5 / 37.7 | 26 / 16.5 | 6 / 7.0 | 3 / 1.4 | 2 / 2.8 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe HOU | 19.7 / 19.2 | 4 / 10.2 | 7 / 8.7 | 2 / 1.6 | 0 / 0.0 |
| Tari Eason HOU | 28.3 / 28.0 | 6 / 11.5 | 7 / 5.7 | 1 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.3 |
| Amen Thompson HOU | 32.2 / 39.8 | 16 / 20.1 | 8 / 6.9 | 3 / 5.4 | 0 / 0.2 |
| Moussa Cisse DAL | 0.0 / 26.3 | 0 / 10.7 | 0 / 12.4 | 0 / 0.2 | 0 / 0.0 |
| Alperen Sengun HOU | 26.5 / 33.3 | 6 / 16.7 | 4 / 9.4 | 5 / 4.6 | 0 / 0.1 |
| Walter Clayton Jr. DAL | 13.4 / 25.7 | 11 / 11.3 | 1 / 2.1 | 3 / 5.2 | 2 / 1.7 |
| Cooper Flagg DAL | 37.5 / 32.1 | 12 / 24.4 | 3 / 6.6 | 2 / 3.7 | 0 / 1.2 |
| Jett Howard DAL | 2.8 / 12.5 | 0 / 4.3 | 0 / 1.2 | 1 / 0.6 | 0 / 0.7 |
| Zaccharie Risacher DAL | 21.0 / 12.1 | 10 / 3.9 | 1 / 1.9 | 0 / 0.5 | 0 / 0.1 |
Official medians are the forecast's middle outcome over many simulated games and can be fractional; this run is one game, so its numbers are whole. Neither is rounded into the other.
About this simulation
Game Simulation engine: NBA possession engine (nba-possession-sim-v0) — not the Official Forecast, not the NBA v1 Challenger (evaluation only)
- This Game Simulation is generated by the NBA possession engine (nba-possession-sim-v0) from the same frozen inputs as the Official Forecast.
- It is not the Official Forecast.
- Each run is a hypothetical game — one possible outcome, not a prediction and not a guarantee.
- A different simulated score does not change the Official Forecast.
Technically verified
Every run on this page passed the engine's consistency checks when it was generated and again when this page was built: game clock, possessions, five players on court per side, scoring, minutes, fouls, and an event log that adds up exactly to the box score. The run you are watching is also re-added from its own event log in your browser (Reconciliation, above).
- Checks
- P1–P11 (clock, possession, five on court, scoring, minutes, fouls, log = box score)
- Seed pool
- 1,000 seeded runs, 1,000 checked, 0 invariant violations
Model Performance — not yet measured
The engine has not been measured against actual NBA results: it has no preregistered evaluation, and it has not been shown to be more accurate than the Official Forecast or the NBA v1 Challenger (evaluation only). Its runs are independent draws (not reconciled to v1's draws). Each run is a possible game, not a prediction and not a guarantee, and nothing it shows changes an official number.
What is modelled: every play, score change, clock reading, possession arrow and lineup on this page comes from one stored event log of the engine, and the box score is that log added up. The court graphic is decorative: player positions, ball movement and shot locations are not modelled.
- Inputs as of
- 2026-10-30 15:50 UTC (the Official Forecast's freeze for this game: the simulation has no later information than the Official Forecast had)
How the runs on this page were chosen
- pool
- runIndex 0 … poolSize − 1 of the engine's fixed seed policy (seed = hash(providerEventId); draw i uses mulberry32(fnv1a32(seed + ':' + i)))
- distance
- official-representative@2 distance to the official v0.1 player expectations (team terms withheld for NBA)
- default
- smallest distance among runs won by the official Elo favoured side; ties → lowest runIndex
- upset
- smallest distance among runs won by the side the official forecast does not favour; ties → lowest runIndex
- high
- total closest to the pool's p90 total (nearest rank); ties → smaller distance → lowest runIndex
- low
- total closest to the pool's p10 total (nearest rank); ties → smaller distance → lowest runIndex
- overtime
- smallest distance among overtime runs; ties → lowest runIndex (only when the pool has one)
- order
- default, upset, high, low, overtime — each pick excludes the runs already picked
Not modelled
- Shot locations, player movement and ball movement (the court graphic is decorative)
- Timeouts and coach's challenges
- Offensive fouls (booked as turnovers; every personal foul is on the defence)
- Bonus / penalty situations (folded into the fitted free-throw trip rate)
- Late-game strategy beyond intentional fouling (overtime is rarer than in real games)
- Technical fouls (folded into odd free-throw trips)
- Fatigue and blowout rest