MLB · Mon, Oct 5 · first pitch Oct 5, 8:00 PM ET
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Final: NYY 2 – 5 TB
The forecast of record was right on 2 of 3 graded markets.
Official Forecast · frozen Oct 5, 7:15 PM ET, before first pitch · shown as recorded
The forecast and how it did
| Market | Call | Model probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | TB (home) | 53.5% | Right |
| Run line | NYY +1.5 | 65.7% | Wrong |
| Total runs | OVER 6.5 | 59.1% | Right |
Each call is the model’s own probability for the side it picked, frozen before first pitch and graded against the official final. It is not a betting recommendation and says nothing about value against a sportsbook price.
Game report archived
The full game report and its simulation are shown on game day only. This page keeps the link working with the forecast of record and its result; the full season record is on MLB results.
Technical detailsWhere the forecast of record and the grade come from
- Game id
- 849839
- Forecast frozen
- 2026-10-05T23:15:41.000Z
- First pitch
- 2026-10-06T00:00:00Z
- Snapshot
- snapshot:2026-10-05/snapshot-202610052315.json
- Graded
- 2026-10-06T09:24:58Z