Simulate

De-vigged sportsbook moneyline. Settled from the official box score.

De-vigged run line. Settled from the official final score.

De-vigged total. Settled from the official final score.

Strikeouts / hits / total bases projected from game logs vs the line; a 10,000-run prop sim is shown only where the artifact exists. Settled from the official box score. Not market-proven: across 18,659 settled leans none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the sportsbook price on Brier or log loss, so the model number is a market-anchored research signal and the market price is the better probability.

An independent full-game Monte Carlo — 10,000 complete simulated games from the pregame board projections — produces the projected score, win probability and run distributions where its artifact qualifies; games without one show no projected score. Game Simulation; Model Performance: it has not been validated to out-predict the market.

Team totals can be read from odds but are not yet settlement-validated, so they stay out of product cards until grading is proven.

Settlement: pending · needs: Odds API team-total lines, team-total settlement source

First-5-innings markets are planned; they need the F5 line feed and inning-level settlement.

Settlement: pending · needs: Odds API F5 lines, F5 settlement (linescore innings 1-5)

A simulated score range and win chance for every regular-season game from the evaluated team-strength model, frozen before kickoff — the Official Forecast. Model Performance: it picked about 64% of winners on a held-out 2025 season. (The archived preseason identity picked winners no better than a coin flip on its held-out preseason, which is why it never fed products.) Neither is presented as sharper than the sportsbook price.

From the team rating that weights how decisively teams win — not from the score simulation, so the two are not forced to agree. Official Forecast, frozen before kickoff; never a product leg.

Median and likely range from the same 10,000 runs, shown beside the sportsbook total for context.

The books' own moneyline, spread and total with the margin removed, captured before kickoff and attributed. Not a GameTimePicks prediction.

The calibrated scoring model publishes weekly touchdown boards, with each player's availability state attached (injury-listed players marked; everyone else availability-uncertain until kickoff). No authorized touchdown market is captured for these games, so it is model-only — a watchlist, never a card.

Receptions and receiving yards publish as validated model forecasts under their own evaluation receipts. Passing and rushing yards display as UNVALIDATED ESTIMATES, not Official Forecasts — each failed a named evaluation bar (passing loses to a simple recent-form baseline; rushing failed calibration) and carries that caveat wherever it renders. Availability states on every row; no family is priced against a market and none is product-eligible.

The fight model's own win probability — a fitted, Platt-calibrated read, NOT a market price. Official Forecast; Model Performance: graded publicly beside the de-vigged line, which the cumulative comparison currently favours.

Settlement: pending · needs: fight corpus (results, tale-of-the-tape)

The fight model's method read (KO / submission / decision, among fights that end with a winner). Model-only — no method odds feed exists here; never a priced market and never in a product card.

Settlement: unsupported · needs: fighter finish/decision corpus

The fight model's ending-round read (R1 / R2 / R3+, where R3+ includes every decision). Model-only and unpriced — a round/distance odds feed would be needed before any product use. Never faked.

Settlement: unsupported · needs: Round & distance odds feed, round-level settlement