MLB · Run line pick (posted line)
16 forecasts published · 16 measured · 0 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Model: mlb-prediction-2026.10-v2.
Where the model, start and publication time of each forecast come from: 16 from a committed record · 0 unknown. The CSV names the source of each.
0.273Brier score (n 16), lower is better
0.742log loss, lower is better
62.4% → 43.8%average forecast → how often it happened
0.187calibration error (ECE)
7–9pick record: the pick we published
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 5 | 53.8% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 64.9% | 44.4% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 73.0% | 50.0% |
Latest forecasts
The 16 most recent of 16. Download all 16 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 28 MIL @ TB | MIL @ TB | 63.9% · TB +1.5 published Oct 28, 5:13 PM ET | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.408 |
| Tue, Oct 27 MIL @ TB | MIL @ TB | 50.2% · MIL -1.5 published Oct 27, 4:50 PM ET | line -1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.252 |
| Mon, Oct 26 MIL @ TB | MIL @ TB | 56.2% · TB +1.5 published Oct 26, 4:40 PM ET | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.316 |
| Sat, Oct 24 TB @ MIL | TB @ MIL | 67.5% · TB +1.5 published Oct 24, 5:06 PM ET | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.106 |
| Fri, Oct 23 TB @ MIL | TB @ MIL | 67.1% · TB +1.5 published Oct 23, 4:33 PM ET | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.108 |
| Mon, Oct 19 CLE @ TB | CLE @ TB | 67.8% · CLE +1.5 published Oct 19, 4:40 PM ET | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.460 |
| Sun, Oct 18 TB @ CLE | TB @ CLE | 66.9% · CLE +1.5 published Oct 18, 2:04 PM ET | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.448 |
| Sat, Oct 17 TB @ CLE | TB @ CLE | 61.8% · CLE +1.5 published Oct 17, 8:07 PM ET | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.382 |
| Thu, Oct 15 MIL @ LAD | MIL @ LAD | 58.2% · MIL +1.5 published Oct 15, 7:45 PM ET | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.175 |
| Thu, Oct 15 TB @ CLE | TB @ CLE | 67.0% · TB +1.5 published Oct 15, 11:38 AM ET | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.109 |
| Wed, Oct 14 MIL @ LAD | MIL @ LAD | 61.7% · MIL +1.5 published Oct 14, 7:20 PM ET | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.147 |
| Tue, Oct 13 CLE @ TB | CLE @ TB | 73.9% · CLE +1.5 published Oct 13, 7:47 PM ET | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.546 |
| Mon, Oct 12 CLE @ TB | CLE @ TB | 72.2% · CLE +1.5 published Oct 12, 7:42 PM ET | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.077 |
| Mon, Oct 12 LAD @ MIL | LAD @ MIL | 50.1% · LAD -1.5 published Oct 12, 4:20 PM ET | line -1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.251 |
| Sun, Oct 11 LAD @ MIL | LAD @ MIL | 54.1% · MIL +1.5 published Oct 11, 7:47 PM ET | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.211 |
| Sat, Oct 10 CWS @ CLE | CWS @ CLE | 60.5% · CWS +1.5 published Oct 10, 7:41 PM ET | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.366 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.