MLB · Projected runs (median simulation score)
1,652 forecasts published · 1,652 measured · 0 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Models: mlb-prediction-2026.08-v1, mlb-prediction-2026.10-v2.
Where the model, start and publication time of each forecast come from: 950 from a committed record · 702 from file history · 0 unknown. The CSV names the source of each.
2.4average miss (n 1,652)
2.0median miss
3.3root-mean-square miss
-0.8bias (+ = we projected high)
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 1,652. Download all 1,652 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Oct 28 MIL @ TB | TB | 4 published Oct 28, 5:13 PM ET | — | Actual 1 | missed by 3 |
| Wed, Oct 28 MIL @ TB | MIL | 4 published Oct 28, 5:13 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 0 |
| Tue, Oct 27 MIL @ TB | TB | 2 published Oct 27, 4:50 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 2 |
| Tue, Oct 27 MIL @ TB | MIL | 4 published Oct 27, 4:50 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Mon, Oct 26 MIL @ TB | MIL | 4 published Oct 26, 4:40 PM ET | — | Actual 10 | missed by 6 |
| Mon, Oct 26 MIL @ TB | TB | 3 published Oct 26, 4:40 PM ET | — | Actual 1 | missed by 2 |
| Sat, Oct 24 TB @ MIL | MIL | 4 published Oct 24, 5:06 PM ET | — | Actual 5 | missed by 1 |
| Sat, Oct 24 TB @ MIL | TB | 4 published Oct 24, 5:06 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 0 |
| Fri, Oct 23 TB @ MIL | TB | 4 published Oct 23, 4:33 PM ET | — | Actual 2 | missed by 2 |
| Fri, Oct 23 TB @ MIL | MIL | 4 published Oct 23, 4:33 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Mon, Oct 19 CLE @ TB | CLE | 4 published Oct 19, 4:40 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Mon, Oct 19 CLE @ TB | TB | 4 published Oct 19, 4:40 PM ET | — | Actual 7 | missed by 3 |
| Sun, Oct 18 TB @ CLE | CLE | 4 published Oct 18, 2:04 PM ET | — | Actual 1 | missed by 3 |
| Sun, Oct 18 TB @ CLE | TB | 4 published Oct 18, 2:04 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Sat, Oct 17 TB @ CLE | CLE | 4 published Oct 17, 8:07 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Sat, Oct 17 TB @ CLE | TB | 4 published Oct 17, 8:07 PM ET | — | Actual 7 | missed by 3 |
| Thu, Oct 15 MIL @ LAD | LAD | 5 published Oct 15, 7:45 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 1 |
| Thu, Oct 15 MIL @ LAD | MIL | 4 published Oct 15, 7:45 PM ET | — | Actual 6 | missed by 2 |
| Thu, Oct 15 TB @ CLE | CLE | 4 published Oct 15, 11:38 AM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Thu, Oct 15 TB @ CLE | TB | 4 published Oct 15, 11:38 AM ET | — | Actual 2 | missed by 2 |
| Wed, Oct 14 MIL @ LAD | MIL | 4 published Oct 14, 7:20 PM ET | — | Actual 6 | missed by 2 |
| Wed, Oct 14 MIL @ LAD | LAD | 5 published Oct 14, 7:20 PM ET | — | Actual 2 | missed by 3 |
| Tue, Oct 13 CLE @ TB | TB | 3 published Oct 13, 7:47 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 0 |
| Tue, Oct 13 CLE @ TB | CLE | 4 published Oct 13, 7:47 PM ET | — | Actual 1 | missed by 3 |
| Mon, Oct 12 CLE @ TB | TB | 3 published Oct 12, 7:42 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 0 |
| Mon, Oct 12 CLE @ TB | CLE | 4 published Oct 12, 7:42 PM ET | — | Actual 7 | missed by 3 |
| Mon, Oct 12 LAD @ MIL | MIL | 4 published Oct 12, 4:20 PM ET | — | Actual 7 | missed by 3 |
| Mon, Oct 12 LAD @ MIL | LAD | 5 published Oct 12, 4:20 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 1 |
| Sun, Oct 11 LAD @ MIL | LAD | 5 published Oct 11, 7:47 PM ET | — | Actual 1 | missed by 4 |
| Sun, Oct 11 LAD @ MIL | MIL | 4 published Oct 11, 7:47 PM ET | — | Actual 2 | missed by 2 |
| Sat, Oct 10 CWS @ CLE | CWS | 3 published Oct 10, 7:41 PM ET | — | Actual 0 | missed by 3 |
| Sat, Oct 10 CWS @ CLE | CLE | 4 published Oct 10, 7:41 PM ET | — | Actual 2 | missed by 2 |
| Thu, Oct 8 CLE @ CWS | CWS | 3 published Oct 8, 7:49 PM ET | — | Actual 5 | missed by 2 |
| Thu, Oct 8 CLE @ CWS | CLE | 4 published Oct 8, 7:49 PM ET | — | Actual 9 | missed by 5 |
| Wed, Oct 7 MIL @ SD | SD | 5 published Oct 7, 9:10 PM ET | — | Actual 1 | missed by 4 |
| Wed, Oct 7 MIL @ SD | MIL | 4 published Oct 7, 9:10 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Wed, Oct 7 TB @ NYY | NYY | 3 published Oct 7, 7:39 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 0 |
| Wed, Oct 7 TB @ NYY | TB | 3 published Oct 7, 7:39 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 1 |
| Wed, Oct 7 LAD @ ATL | ATL | 3 published Oct 7, 5:26 PM ET | — | Actual 1 | missed by 2 |
| Wed, Oct 7 LAD @ ATL | LAD | 5 published Oct 7, 5:26 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 1 |
| Wed, Oct 7 CLE @ CWS | CWS | 4 published Oct 7, 1:52 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Wed, Oct 7 CLE @ CWS | CLE | 3 published Oct 7, 1:52 PM ET | — | Actual 9 | missed by 6 |
| Tue, Oct 6 MIL @ SD | MIL | 4 published Oct 6, 8:53 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Tue, Oct 6 MIL @ SD | SD | 4 published Oct 6, 8:53 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 0 |
| Tue, Oct 6 LAD @ ATL | LAD | 4 published Oct 6, 5:47 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Tue, Oct 6 LAD @ ATL | ATL | 3 published Oct 6, 5:47 PM ET | — | Actual 1 | missed by 2 |
| Mon, Oct 5 NYY @ TB | NYY | 3 published Oct 5, 7:15 PM ET | — | Actual 2 | missed by 1 |
| Mon, Oct 5 NYY @ TB | TB | 4 published Oct 5, 7:15 PM ET | — | Actual 5 | missed by 1 |
| Mon, Oct 5 CWS @ CLE | CLE | 4 published Oct 5, 3:42 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Mon, Oct 5 CWS @ CLE | CWS | 4 published Oct 5, 3:42 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 0 |
| Sun, Oct 4 ATL @ LAD | ATL | 3 published Oct 4, 7:20 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 0 |
| Sun, Oct 4 ATL @ LAD | LAD | 4 published Oct 4, 7:20 PM ET | — | Actual 2 | missed by 2 |
| Sun, Oct 4 SD @ MIL | SD | 5 published Oct 4, 3:44 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 2 |
| Sun, Oct 4 SD @ MIL | MIL | 4 published Oct 4, 3:44 PM ET | — | Actual 4 | missed by 0 |
| Sat, Oct 3 SD @ MIL | MIL | 4 published Oct 3, 7:58 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 1 |
| Sat, Oct 3 SD @ MIL | SD | 5 published Oct 3, 7:58 PM ET | — | Actual 2 | missed by 3 |
| Sat, Oct 3 NYY @ TB | NYY | 3 published Oct 3, 6:15 PM ET | — | Actual 0 | missed by 3 |
| Sat, Oct 3 NYY @ TB | TB | 3 published Oct 3, 6:15 PM ET | — | Actual 1 | missed by 2 |
| Sat, Oct 3 ATL @ LAD | ATL | 3 published Oct 3, 3:19 PM ET | — | Actual 3 | missed by 0 |
| Sat, Oct 3 ATL @ LAD | LAD | 4 published Oct 3, 3:19 PM ET | — | Actual 5 | missed by 1 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.