Premier League · 1+ shot on target
2,258 forecasts published · 1,212 measured · 0 not final · 1,046 void or not measurable. Models: not recorded by this forecast's record.
0.153Brier score (n 1,212), lower is better
0.470log loss, lower is better
24.1% → 23.7%average forecast → how often it happened
0.024calibration error (ECE)
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 211 | 4.9% | 6.2% |
| 10–20% | 434 | 14.0% | 15.0% |
| 20–30% | 175 | 24.9% | 18.3% |
| 30–40% | 158 | 33.2% | 32.9% |
| 40–50% | 78 | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 117 | 55.0% | 53.0% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.2% | 57.1% |
| 80–90% | 4 | 81.3% | 100.0% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 2,258. Download all 2,258 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Noussair Mazraoui · Manchester United | 6.8% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Toby Collyer · Manchester United | 32.4% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Alex Borto · Fulham | 0.5% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | César Palacios · Fulham | 32.4% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Marcus Rashford · Manchester United | 60.6% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.155 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Gonzalo García · Fulham | 55.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.303 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Lisandro Martínez · Manchester United | 11.9% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.776 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Timothy Castagne · Fulham | 11.4% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.013 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Bernd Leno · Fulham | 0.7% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.000 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Shea Lacey · Manchester United | 55.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Antonee Robinson · Fulham | 9.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.008 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Jonah Kusi-Asare · Fulham | 55.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Amad Diallo · Manchester United | 53.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Harry Maguire · Manchester United | 16.3% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.027 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Calvin Bassey · Fulham | 8.6% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.835 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Mason Mount · Manchester United | 37.1% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Karl Darlow · Manchester United | 0.2% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Harry Amass · Manchester United | 10.7% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Benjamin Sesko · Manchester United | 71.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Manuel Ugarte · Manchester United | 21.7% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Oscar Bobb · Fulham | 24.8% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.061 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Ayden Heaven · Manchester United | 7.5% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Matthijs de Ligt · Manchester United | 20.3% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Jack Fletcher · Manchester United | 32.4% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Leny Yoro · Manchester United | 10.8% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Harrison Reed · Fulham | 20.4% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Alex Iwobi · Fulham | 45.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.302 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Bruno Fernandes · Manchester United | 53.6% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.287 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Patrick Dorgu · Manchester United | 29.4% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Ryan Sessegnon · Fulham | 34.8% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Joachim Andersen · Fulham | 17.8% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Tom Heaton · Manchester United | 0.5% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Diogo Dalot · Manchester United | 18.3% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.033 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Tyler Fletcher · Manchester United | 32.4% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Jorge Cuenca · Fulham | 7.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Sander Berge · Fulham | 9.7% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.815 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Joshua Zirkzee · Manchester United | 53.5% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Tom Cairney · Fulham | 23.8% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Luc de Fougerolles · Fulham | 13.2% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Emile Smith Rowe · Fulham | 31.8% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Kobbie Mainoo · Manchester United | 19.5% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.038 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Dermot Mee · Manchester United | 0.5% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Youri Tielemans · Manchester United | 27.5% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.075 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Senne Lammens · Manchester United | 0.2% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.000 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Andrey Santos · Manchester United | 22.1% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Josh King · Fulham | 35.9% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.410 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Benjamin Lecomte · Fulham | 0.5% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Macauley Zepa · Fulham | 55.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Kevin · Fulham | 48.9% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Kenny Tete · Fulham | 12.8% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Bryan Mbeumo · Manchester United | 59.7% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.163 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Luke Shaw · Manchester United | 7.9% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.006 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Matheus Cunha · Manchester United | 65.3% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.120 |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Rodrigo Muniz · Fulham | 56.1% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Fulham v Manchester United | Shea Charles · Fulham | 32.4% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.105 |
| 2026-09-20 Leeds United v Crystal Palace | Evann Guessand · Crystal Palace | 48.9% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Leeds United v Crystal Palace | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace | 59.8% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Leeds United v Crystal Palace | Daniel James · Leeds United | 37.9% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
| 2026-09-20 Bournemouth v Liverpool | Alisson Becker · Liverpool | 0.1% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.000 |
| 2026-09-20 Bournemouth v Liverpool | Álvaro Rodríguez · AFC Bournemouth | 55.0% published 2026-09-19 22:35Z | — | Void — did not play | — |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.