Premier League · Correct score (top-10 table)
76 forecasts published · 76 measured · 0 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Models: epl-model-v1-split-poisson, epl-model-v2-elo-poisson.
Where the model, start and publication time of each forecast come from: 75 from a committed record · 1 from file history · 0 unknown. The CSV names the source of each.
2.384log loss (n 76) — a blind guess scores 2.398
0.895Brier score — a blind guess scores 0.909
11.8%top-1 exact-score hit rate (how often our single likeliest listed score was the exact final)
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 76. Download all 76 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25 Sunderland v Leeds United | Sunderland v Leeds United | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.3% published Oct 25, 11:40 AM ET | — | Result: 0-0 | Brier 1.006 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Manchester United v Bournemouth | Manchester United v Bournemouth | Likeliest 1-1 (11.5%) · scores not listed 25.4% published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (0-3) | Brier 0.616 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Hull City v Brentford | Hull City v Brentford | Likeliest 1-1 (11.7%) · scores not listed 26.0% published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Result: 1-1 | Brier 0.893 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Crystal Palace v Newcastle United | Crystal Palace v Newcastle United | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.4% published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Result: 0-2 | Brier 1.012 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion | Likeliest 1-1 (11.6%) · scores not listed 25.7% published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Result: 2-0 | Brier 0.963 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur | Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur | Likeliest 1-0 (11.3%) · scores not listed 23.5% published Oct 24, 12:22 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (0-2) | Brier 0.650 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Coventry City v Fulham | Coventry City v Fulham | Likeliest 1-1 (11.8%) · scores not listed 26.1% published Oct 24, 9:32 AM ET | — | Result: 0-1 | Brier 0.940 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Arsenal v Everton | Arsenal v Everton | Likeliest 2-0 (13.1%) · scores not listed 21.3% published Oct 24, 9:32 AM ET | — | Result: 2-0 | Brier 0.855 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Aston Villa v Manchester City | Aston Villa v Manchester City | Likeliest 1-1 (11.3%) · scores not listed 24.8% published Oct 23, 7:47 PM ET | — | Result: 2-1 | Brier 1.000 |
| Fri, Oct 23 Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest | Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest | Likeliest 1-1 (11.8%) · scores not listed 26.0% published Oct 22, 7:59 PM ET | — | Result: 1-1 | Brier 0.891 |
| Mon, Oct 19 Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City | Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City | Likeliest 1-1 (11.3%) · scores not listed 24.8% published Oct 18, 6:59 PM ET | — | Result: 3-1 | Brier 1.012 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | Likeliest 1-1 (11.1%) · scores not listed 24.3% published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Result: 0-1 | Brier 0.906 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Leeds United v Manchester United | Leeds United v Manchester United | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.3% published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Result: 1-1 | Brier 0.889 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Bournemouth v Sunderland | Bournemouth v Sunderland | Likeliest 1-0 (11.3%) · scores not listed 23.6% published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Result: 2-0 | Brier 0.913 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | Likeliest 1-0 (11.5%) · scores not listed 23.3% published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (5-0) | Brier 0.654 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Newcastle United v Aston Villa | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | Likeliest 1-1 (11.8%) · scores not listed 26.1% published Oct 17, 12:03 PM ET | — | Result: 0-1 | Brier 0.973 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Manchester City v Ipswich Town | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | Likeliest 2-0 (18.6%) · scores not listed 11.6% published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (3-2) | Brier 0.886 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Brentford v Liverpool | Brentford v Liverpool | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.3% published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Result: 1-2 | Brier 0.967 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Fulham v Hull City | Fulham v Hull City | Likeliest 1-1 (11.2%) · scores not listed 24.4% published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Result: 1-0 | Brier 0.909 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Everton v Chelsea | Everton v Chelsea | Likeliest 1-1 (11.8%) · scores not listed 26.0% published Oct 16, 7:17 PM ET | — | Result: 0-2 | Brier 1.035 |
| Mon, Oct 12 Coventry City v Newcastle United | Coventry City v Newcastle United | Likeliest 1-1 (11.6%) · scores not listed 25.6% published Oct 11, 8:25 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (4-1) | Brier 0.614 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Liverpool v Manchester City | Liverpool v Manchester City | Likeliest 1-1 (11.8%) · scores not listed 26.1% published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (0-3) | Brier 0.606 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Hull City v Everton | Hull City v Everton | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.1% published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Result: 2-2 | Brier 1.012 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.2% published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Result: 3-1 | Brier 1.042 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | Likeliest 2-0 (12.4%) · scores not listed 22.4% published Oct 10, 12:08 PM ET | — | Result: 1-1 | Brier 0.927 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Aston Villa v Brentford | Aston Villa v Brentford | Likeliest 1-1 (11.8%) · scores not listed 26.1% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Result: 2-2 | Brier 1.012 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Chelsea v Bournemouth | Chelsea v Bournemouth | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.1% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (5-1) | Brier 0.605 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion | Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion | Likeliest 1-1 (11.7%) · scores not listed 26.0% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Result: 0-2 | Brier 0.975 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Ipswich Town v Fulham | Ipswich Town v Fulham | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.2% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Result: 2-1 | Brier 0.971 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Arsenal v Leeds United | Arsenal v Leeds United | Likeliest 2-0 (13.8%) · scores not listed 20.0% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Result: 2-1 | Brier 0.931 |
| Sun, Sep 20 Fulham v Manchester United | Fulham v Manchester United | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.1% published Sep 19, 6:35 PM ET | — | Result: 1-1 | Brier 0.890 |
| Sun, Sep 20 Leeds United v Crystal Palace | Leeds United v Crystal Palace | Likeliest 1-1 (11.5%) · scores not listed 25.2% published Sep 19, 6:35 PM ET | — | Result: 0-0 | Brier 1.002 |
| Sun, Sep 20 Manchester City v Sunderland | Manchester City v Sunderland | Likeliest 2-0 (15.7%) · scores not listed 17.1% published Sep 19, 6:35 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (5-3) | Brier 0.772 |
| Sun, Sep 20 Bournemouth v Liverpool | Bournemouth v Liverpool | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 26.2% published Sep 19, 6:35 PM ET | — | Result: 0-1 | Brier 0.968 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Nottingham Forest v Coventry City | Nottingham Forest v Coventry City | Likeliest 2-0 (12.7%) · scores not listed 21.9% published Sep 19, 12:09 PM ET | — | Result: 0-1 | Brier 1.026 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal | Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal | Likeliest 1-1 (11.4%) · scores not listed 25.1% published Sep 19, 9:59 AM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (3-0) | Brier 0.622 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Everton v Ipswich Town | Everton v Ipswich Town | Likeliest 1-0 (11.6%) · scores not listed 23.2% published Sep 19, 9:59 AM ET | — | Result: 1-0 | Brier 0.887 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Newcastle United v Hull City | Newcastle United v Hull City | Likeliest 1-0 (11.1%) · scores not listed 23.7% published Sep 19, 9:59 AM ET | — | Result: 2-1 | Brier 0.923 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa | Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa | Likeliest 1-1 (11.9%) · scores not listed 25.6% published Sep 18, 7:02 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (2-3) | Brier 0.614 |
| Fri, Sep 18 Brentford v Chelsea | Brentford v Chelsea | Likeliest 1-1 (11.8%) · scores not listed 25.5% published Sep 17, 7:30 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (3-0) | Brier 0.614 |
| Mon, Sep 14 Leeds United v Newcastle United | Leeds United v Newcastle United | Likeliest 1-1 (11.1%) · scores not listed 29.3% published Sep 13, 7:04 PM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (4-1) | Brier 0.554 |
| Sun, Sep 13 Manchester United v Manchester City | Manchester United v Manchester City | Likeliest 1-1 (11.5%) · scores not listed 24.2% published Sep 12, 6:44 PM ET | — | Result: 0-1 | Brier 0.907 |
| Sun, Sep 13 Coventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion | Coventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion | Likeliest 0-1 (34.5%) · scores not listed 0.4% published Sep 12, 6:44 PM ET | — | Result: 0-5 | Brier 1.243 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Sunderland v Arsenal | Sunderland v Arsenal | Likeliest 0-1 (17.7%) · scores not listed 12.2% published Sep 12, 2:02 PM ET | — | Result: 0-2 | Brier 0.866 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Tottenham Hotspur v Everton | Tottenham Hotspur v Everton | Likeliest 1-1 (12.3%) · scores not listed 22.7% published Sep 12, 12:27 PM ET | — | Result: 0-0 | Brier 0.970 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | Likeliest 2-1 (9.8%) · scores not listed 31.8% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Result: 1-2 | Brier 1.051 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Chelsea v Hull City | Chelsea v Hull City | Likeliest 0-0 (39.2%) · scores not listed 0.2% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (2-2) | Brier 1.297 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Bournemouth v Brentford | Bournemouth v Brentford | Likeliest 1-1 (13.2%) · scores not listed 18.5% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Result: 2-2 | Brier 1.019 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Liverpool v Fulham | Liverpool v Fulham | Likeliest 2-0 (11.7%) · scores not listed 25.0% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Result: 0-0 | Brier 1.022 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town | Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town | Likeliest 1-1 (11.0%) · scores not listed 28.0% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (2-3) | Brier 0.575 |
| Sun, Sep 6 Arsenal v Chelsea | Arsenal v Chelsea | Likeliest 2-1 (9.8%) · scores not listed 30.7% published Sep 6, 11:00 AM ET | — | Result: 2-1 | Brier 0.951 |
| Sun, Sep 6 Everton v Manchester United | Everton v Manchester United | Likeliest 1-1 (13.2%) · scores not listed 17.8% published Sep 5, 6:29 PM ET | — | Result: 2-2 | Brier 1.021 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Hull City v Aston Villa | Hull City v Aston Villa | Likeliest 1-0 (26.7%) · scores not listed 1.8% published Sep 5, 12:11 PM ET | — | Result: 0-0 | Brier 0.914 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Brentford v Sunderland | Brentford v Sunderland | Likeliest 1-0 (12.1%) · scores not listed 21.3% published Sep 5, 9:40 AM ET | — | Result: 1-1 | Brier 0.884 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Manchester City v Coventry City | Manchester City v Coventry City | Likeliest 4-0 (17.4%) · scores not listed 5.6% published Sep 5, 9:40 AM ET | — | Result: 1-0 | Brier 1.049 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Fulham v Crystal Palace | Fulham v Crystal Palace | Likeliest 1-1 (12.4%) · scores not listed 22.6% published Sep 5, 9:40 AM ET | — | Result: a score not in the table (2-3) | Brier 0.665 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | Likeliest 1-1 (11.8%) · scores not listed 27.0% published Sep 5, 9:40 AM ET | — | Result: 0-0 | Brier 1.013 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Newcastle United v Bournemouth | Newcastle United v Bournemouth | Likeliest 2-1 (9.2%) · scores not listed 36.0% published Sep 4, 6:47 PM ET | — | Result: 2-2 | Brier 1.061 |
| Fri, Sep 4 Ipswich Town v Liverpool | Ipswich Town v Liverpool | Likeliest 0-3 (10.8%) · scores not listed 28.2% published Sep 3, 7:12 PM ET | — | Result: 0-2 | Brier 0.926 |
| Mon, Aug 31 Aston Villa v Arsenal | Aston Villa v Arsenal | Likeliest 1-1 (11.5%) · scores not listed 22.6% published Aug 30, 7:20 PM ET | — | Result: 0-1 | Brier 0.888 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.