Premier League · Both teams to score
76 forecasts published · 76 measured · 0 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Models: epl-model-v1-split-poisson, epl-model-v2-elo-poisson.
Where the model, start and publication time of each forecast come from: 75 from a committed record · 1 from file history · 0 unknown. The CSV names the source of each.
0.256Brier score (n 76), lower is better
0.720log loss, lower is better
50.6% → 48.7%average forecast → how often it happened
0.101calibration error (ECE)
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 4 | 3.8% | 25.0% |
| 20–30% | 1 | 25.5% | 100.0% |
| 30–40% | 4 | 37.8% | 75.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 46.5% | 45.5% |
| 50–60% | 51 | 55.2% | 47.1% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.4% | 60.0% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 76. Download all 76 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25 Sunderland v Leeds United | Sunderland v Leeds United | 56.6% published Oct 25, 11:40 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.321 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Manchester United v Bournemouth | Manchester United v Bournemouth | 55.0% published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.302 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Hull City v Brentford | Hull City v Brentford | 55.7% published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.196 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion | 55.3% published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.305 |
| Sun, Oct 25 Crystal Palace v Newcastle United | Crystal Palace v Newcastle United | 56.7% published Oct 24, 6:50 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.321 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur | Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur | 51.5% published Oct 24, 12:22 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.265 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Coventry City v Fulham | Coventry City v Fulham | 56.2% published Oct 24, 9:32 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.316 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Arsenal v Everton | Arsenal v Everton | 45.0% published Oct 24, 9:32 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.202 |
| Sat, Oct 24 Aston Villa v Manchester City | Aston Villa v Manchester City | 54.3% published Oct 23, 7:47 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.209 |
| Fri, Oct 23 Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest | Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest | 56.1% published Oct 22, 7:59 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.192 |
| Mon, Oct 19 Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City | Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City | 54.2% published Oct 18, 6:59 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.210 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | 53.3% published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.285 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Bournemouth v Sunderland | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 51.7% published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.268 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | 50.6% published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.257 |
| Sun, Oct 18 Leeds United v Manchester United | Leeds United v Manchester United | 56.6% published Oct 17, 6:49 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.188 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Newcastle United v Aston Villa | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | 56.2% published Oct 17, 12:03 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.316 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Manchester City v Ipswich Town | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | 25.5% published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.555 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Fulham v Hull City | Fulham v Hull City | 53.7% published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.288 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Brentford v Liverpool | Brentford v Liverpool | 56.6% published Oct 17, 9:55 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.188 |
| Sat, Oct 17 Everton v Chelsea | Everton v Chelsea | 55.9% published Oct 16, 7:17 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.313 |
| Mon, Oct 12 Coventry City v Newcastle United | Coventry City v Newcastle United | 55.1% published Oct 11, 8:25 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.202 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Liverpool v Manchester City | Liverpool v Manchester City | 56.3% published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.316 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 56.5% published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.189 |
| Sun, Oct 11 Hull City v Everton | Hull City v Everton | 56.4% published Oct 10, 8:00 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.190 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 47.1% published Oct 10, 12:08 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.280 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Aston Villa v Brentford | Aston Villa v Brentford | 56.3% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.191 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion | Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion | 55.9% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.312 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Chelsea v Bournemouth | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 56.4% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.190 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Ipswich Town v Fulham | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 56.5% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.189 |
| Sat, Oct 10 Arsenal v Leeds United | Arsenal v Leeds United | 42.9% published Oct 9, 8:32 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.326 |
| Sun, Sep 20 Fulham v Manchester United | Fulham v Manchester United | 56.4% published Sep 19, 6:35 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.190 |
| Sun, Sep 20 Bournemouth v Liverpool | Bournemouth v Liverpool | 56.5% published Sep 19, 6:35 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.319 |
| Sun, Sep 20 Manchester City v Sunderland | Manchester City v Sunderland | 36.8% published Sep 19, 6:35 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.400 |
| Sun, Sep 20 Leeds United v Crystal Palace | Leeds United v Crystal Palace | 54.7% published Sep 19, 6:35 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.299 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Nottingham Forest v Coventry City | Nottingham Forest v Coventry City | 46.2% published Sep 19, 12:09 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.213 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Newcastle United v Hull City | Newcastle United v Hull City | 52.1% published Sep 19, 9:59 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.229 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Everton v Ipswich Town | Everton v Ipswich Town | 50.2% published Sep 19, 9:59 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.252 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal | Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal | 54.6% published Sep 19, 9:59 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.298 |
| Sat, Sep 19 Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa | Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa | 55.7% published Sep 18, 7:02 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.196 |
| Fri, Sep 18 Brentford v Chelsea | Brentford v Chelsea | 55.5% published Sep 17, 7:30 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.308 |
| Mon, Sep 14 Leeds United v Newcastle United | Leeds United v Newcastle United | 58.9% published Sep 13, 7:04 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.169 |
| Sun, Sep 13 Manchester United v Manchester City | Manchester United v Manchester City | 53.6% published Sep 12, 6:44 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.287 |
| Sun, Sep 13 Coventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion | Coventry City v Brighton & Hove Albion | 3.4% published Sep 12, 6:44 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.001 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Sunderland v Arsenal | Sunderland v Arsenal | 36.6% published Sep 12, 2:02 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.134 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Tottenham Hotspur v Everton | Tottenham Hotspur v Everton | 52.2% published Sep 12, 12:27 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.273 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town | Crystal Palace v Ipswich Town | 57.7% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.179 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Chelsea v Hull City | Chelsea v Hull City | 2.9% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.943 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | 59.2% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.167 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Liverpool v Fulham | Liverpool v Fulham | 49.9% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.249 |
| Sat, Sep 12 Bournemouth v Brentford | Bournemouth v Brentford | 47.6% published Sep 12, 9:52 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.274 |
| Sun, Sep 6 Arsenal v Chelsea | Arsenal v Chelsea | 56.6% published Sep 6, 11:00 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.189 |
| Sun, Sep 6 Everton v Manchester United | Everton v Manchester United | 46.9% published Sep 5, 6:29 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.282 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Hull City v Aston Villa | Hull City v Aston Villa | 4.2% published Sep 5, 12:11 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.002 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | 57.4% published Sep 5, 9:40 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.329 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Brentford v Sunderland | Brentford v Sunderland | 49.8% published Sep 5, 9:40 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.252 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Fulham v Crystal Palace | Fulham v Crystal Palace | 52.5% published Sep 5, 9:40 AM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.225 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Manchester City v Coventry City | Manchester City v Coventry City | 4.8% published Sep 5, 9:40 AM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.002 |
| Sat, Sep 5 Newcastle United v Bournemouth | Newcastle United v Bournemouth | 64.5% published Sep 4, 6:47 PM ET | — | Happened | Brier 0.126 |
| Fri, Sep 4 Ipswich Town v Liverpool | Ipswich Town v Liverpool | 49.5% published Sep 3, 7:12 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.245 |
| Mon, Aug 31 Aston Villa v Arsenal | Aston Villa v Arsenal | 51.6% published Aug 30, 7:20 PM ET | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.266 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.