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NFL · PHI @ WSH · Simulation

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Official Forecast · Game Time Forecast · separate from this simulation

PHI 24 — 23 WSH · win chance PHI 50.8% · WSH 46.4% · total 47

A different engine, anchored to the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. Open the Game Time Forecast.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

55.9%PHI win in the simulated games

43.7%WSH win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.4%game goes to overtime

PHI 24 – 23 WSHmedian score · averages 24.71 – 22.81

47median total · 80% of games 31–65

PHI by 3median margin · 80% range: PHI by 20 to WSH by 16

46.1%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.1% · 6.8%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: WSH points minus PHI points (below 0 means PHI won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-3). Range shown -66 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (47). Range shown 4 to 96.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
PHI	13	24	37	24.71
WSH	10	23	35	22.81

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	PHI median (80%)	WSH median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	PHI wins it	WSH wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–13)	5 (0–10)	10 (3–18)	43.3%	39.5%	17.2%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	46.3%	40.9%	12.8%
Q3	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–18)	44.0%	38.2%	17.8%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	45.0%	39.1%	15.8%
1st half	13 (3–21)	10 (3–21)	24 (13–37)	50.0%	42.6%	7.4%
2nd half	11 (3–21)	10 (3–20)	23 (11–35)	50.1%	42.0%	7.8%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	PHI	WSH
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (51–76)	62 (50–75)
Pass attempts	33 (25–43)	34 (25–44)
Completions	22 (16–30)	23 (16–31)
Passing yards	216 (131–311)	209 (124–303)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	26 (18–35)	25 (17–34)
Rushing yards	128 (64–211)	124 (61–207)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
PHI	4.1%	15.8%	26.8%	27.6%	16.6%	9.1%
WSH	6.0%	19.2%	28.9%	25.5%	13.8%	6.6%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

PHI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Tanner McKee QB	33 (25–43)	22 (16–30)	216 (131–311)	1.7	0.7

PHI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Saquon Barkley RB	12 (7–17)	58 (20–115)	0.5
Tank Bigsby RB	7 (4–12)	29 (7–72)	0.3
Tanner McKee QB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–39)	0.1
Elijah Mitchell RB	3 (1–5)	8 (0–34)	0.1

PHI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
DeVonta Smith WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–7)	40 (9–90)	0.3
Dallas Goedert TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	23 (2–65)	0.2
Dontayvion Wicks WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	20 (0–61)	0.2
Makai Lemon WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	20 (0–59)	0.2
Elijah Mitchell RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1
Darius Cooper WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–38)	0.1

WSH passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jayden Daniels QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–31)	209 (124–303)	1.6	0.8

WSH rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jayden Daniels QB	11 (7–16)	60 (22–118)	0.4
Rachaad White RB	6 (3–10)	23 (4–61)	0.2
Jeremy McNichols RB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–39)	0.1
Austin Ekeler RB	3 (1–5)	8 (0–33)	0.1

WSH receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Stefon Diggs WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–8)	35 (7–82)	0.3
Chig Okonkwo TE	5 (2–9)	4 (1–6)	29 (5–73)	0.2
Antonio Williams WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	22 (1–61)	0.2
Treylon Burks WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	20 (0–59)	0.2
Rachaad White RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–45)	0.1
Dyami Brown WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–39)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Saquon Barkley RB	PHI	43.4%	10.0%	10.6%
Jayden Daniels QB	WSH	31.3%	4.9%	7.4%
Rachaad White RB	WSH	30.7%	4.8%	6.9%
DeVonta Smith WR	PHI	30.1%	4.3%	6.9%
Tank Bigsby RB	PHI	29.3%	4.2%	6.7%
Stefon Diggs WR	WSH	26.8%	3.3%	5.9%
Chig Okonkwo TE	WSH	22.1%	2.2%	5.1%
Dallas Goedert TE	PHI	20.3%	2.0%	4.3%
Elijah Mitchell RB	PHI	19.4%	1.8%	4.0%
Makai Lemon WR	PHI	18.8%	1.7%	4.1%
Antonio Williams WR	WSH	18.5%	1.8%	3.9%
Dontayvion Wicks WR	PHI	18.3%	1.6%	4.0%
Jeremy McNichols RB	WSH	17.8%	1.6%	3.9%
Treylon Burks WR	WSH	17.2%	1.4%	3.4%
Austin Ekeler RB	WSH	17.0%	1.5%	3.8%
Dyami Brown WR	WSH	10.8%	0.6%	2.1%

First touchdown by team: PHI 52.4% · WSH 47.3% · no offensive touchdown 0.2%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: PHI 25 – 22 WSH

By quarter: PHI 7 / 7 / 3 / 8 · WSH 10 / 6 / 0 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PHI–WSH)
1	WSH	65	punt	3	20	0–0
1	PHI	91	td	7	91	7–0
1	WSH	82	td	3	82	7–7
1	PHI	64	turnover	1	-4	7–7
1	WSH	32	fg	9	31	7–10
1	PHI	81	downs	4	9	7–10
2	WSH	28	fg	8	4	7–13
2	PHI	71	td	6	71	14–13
2	WSH	80	fg	8	54	14–16
2	PHI	69	end half	1	56	14–16
2	PHI	65	punt	3	17	14–16
3	WSH	88	punt	4	2	14–16
3	PHI	59	fg	7	29	17–16
3	WSH	79	punt	3	10	17–16
3	PHI	57	punt	6	6	17–16
3	WSH	99	downs	14	83	17–16
4	PHI	84	punt	3	34	17–16
4	WSH	93	td	9	93	17–22
4	PHI	65	punt	3	13	17–22
4	WSH	99	punt	3	0	17–22
4	PHI	43	td	7	43	25–22
4	WSH	74	turnover	6	31	25–22
4	PHI	48	end half	1	-1	25–22

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: PHI 34 – 31 WSH

By quarter: PHI 14 / 3 / 10 / 7 · WSH 7 / 14 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PHI–WSH)
1	WSH	53	punt	3	1	0–0
1	PHI	46	td	11	46	7–0
1	WSH	81	td	8	81	7–7
1	PHI	82	td	4	82	14–7
1	WSH	69	punt	3	28	14–7
1	PHI	99	punt	5	6	14–7
2	WSH	53	td	9	53	14–14
2	PHI	51	punt	7	0	14–14
2	WSH	99	punt	3	0	14–14
2	PHI	28	fg	6	20	17–14
2	WSH	65	td	6	65	17–21
2	PHI	72	end half	1	10	17–21
2	PHI	65	td	13	65	24–21
3	WSH	66	td	4	66	24–28
3	PHI	57	fg	6	50	27–28
3	WSH	76	fg	11	29	27–31
4	PHI	65	punt	3	10	27–31
4	WSH	99	punt	3	1	27–31
4	PHI	40	turnover	6	30	27–31
4	WSH	83	punt	3	13	27–31
4	PHI	80	td	6	80	34–31
4	WSH	65	fg miss	3	42	34–31
4	PHI	69	end half	3	-1	34–31

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: PHI 17 – 14 WSH

By quarter: PHI 0 / 14 / 0 / 3 · WSH 7 / 0 / 7 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PHI–WSH)
1	PHI	69	punt	3	-1	0–0
1	WSH	73	downs	7	60	0–0
1	PHI	99	punt	6	3	0–0
1	WSH	30	td	12	30	0–7
1	PHI	68	td	9	68	7–7
2	WSH	70	punt	4	6	7–7
2	PHI	68	punt	3	6	7–7
2	WSH	70	punt	3	-2	7–7
2	PHI	60	punt	3	11	7–7
2	WSH	82	opp td	3	25	14–7
2	WSH	69	downs	5	19	14–7
2	PHI	50	punt	4	-2	14–7
2	WSH	86	fg miss	6	58	14–7
2	PHI	69	punt	3	29	14–7
2	WSH	99	end half	4	5	14–7
2	WSH	54	punt	4	2	14–7
3	PHI	76	punt	3	13	14–7
3	WSH	78	td	3	78	14–14
3	PHI	74	punt	6	27	14–14
3	WSH	99	turnover	8	28	14–14
3	PHI	33	fg	8	5	17–14
4	WSH	69	punt	13	17	17–14
4	PHI	96	punt	3	8	17–14
4	WSH	25	end half	8	22	17–14

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 28, 8:39 PM ET · before kickoff Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
Seed	46d6fe53 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 47 / margin.median -2 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means WSH 22.46 / PHI 24.46
Availability	injuries as of Oct 28, 8:37 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 28, 8:37 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873035:b003aa77d06bf56e

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.